저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
일본의 막대한 미국채 보유와 일본 국채금리 급등(10년물 2.8%, 30년물 약 4%)이 미 국채금리 상승 압력을 키우며 금 수요로 이어질 것이라는 주장. 최근 금광주(GDX·GDXJ)가 금보다 강하게 오른 점을 긍정 신호로 봄. 유가 급등과 금·유가 동조화 재개를 인플레이션 신호로 해석. 비트코인은 약세 흐름으로 제시. 일본 정책 전환 시점은 특정하지 않음.
다듬은 글
The Japanese government holds over $1.1 trillion in Treasury bonds. The Japanese government is the world's largest holder of U.S. Treasury bonds. So, if the Japanese government is doing the right thing, one of the things they need to do to strengthen their position is to pay off some of their debt. The 30-year bond yield closed at 5.16%.
This is the highest figure in 20 years. This is the highest level of yield on 30- year bonds since 2006 . SpaceX shares barely held at $115. Trading closed at $115.7. That's 15% below the IPO price of $135, but Alphabet still holds 1% growth in 2026, but that's a paltry result compared to all the capital expenditure .
Take a look at Oracle. Oracle shares fell nearly 8% in a week. They are another big waste. It seems, to be precise, by 7.9%. But the company's shares have already fallen 41% in the year. The markets are punishing, not rewarding, Oracle for all these costs. A similar situation with Meta, i.e. Facebook, a drop of 7.3% in a week.
And this is another stock that has fallen in a year, down 8.5% since the beginning of the year. Amazon also suffered during the week, falling 6.8%, although it is still showing a slight increase since the beginning of the year, only 2.5%. Microsoft lost less than other hyperscalers over the week, but still fell 2.7%.
But since the beginning of the year, Microsoft shares have fallen by 19.3%. So they're almost in a bear market, and Oracle is already deep in it because of these expenses, and I think they're going to spend about three-quarters of a trillion dollars this year. You know, look what happened with SpaceX this week.
I talked about SpaceX before their IPO, but it's another company involved in artificial intelligence, mainly through XAI. SpaceX fell another 7.7% this week on top of its previous losses. SpaceX barely held on to the 115 mark. Trading closed at 115.7. This is 15% below the IPO price of $135. But even more dramatic is the drop from the peak, as the stock appears to have traded above 225 3 days after the IPO.
It is now 49% below that high. By the way, it's not just SpaceX that's had a rough week this week, Tesla has also had a few bad days. And again, I think it has to do with the spending they're putting into artificial intelligence. Tesla shares fell 18%. Not yet . Although some of them may have sold the shares short, once they start trading freely, the proportion of shares in free float will increase from 5%, where it is now, to 40% by the end of this year, which is very soon.
And of course, all of these hyperscaler costs are what generate profits for a lot of tech companies that still have big profits, like Nvidia, which was actually flat for the week and its annual growth rate is shrinking. It only grew by about nine and a half percent. Micron, yes, rose 3% for the week .
is still rising on the news, but not significantly compared to previous performance after similar announcements, and in fact Micron is still up about 200% year to date. And look at Taiwan Semiconductor, which produces all this, they fell by 1.2% in a week, despite the growth, they are still in the black for the year , but only by 26%.
So it's not fantastic , nothing spectacular, but gold is up 1 %, even though bond yields are up significantly, as are oil prices. You might say: well, rising oil prices should be good for gold, because gold and oil should be correlated, but they have n't been correlated recently. Ever since the war began, the Iran war, there has been a divergence.
They were moving in opposite directions. Gold and oil moved in opposite directions. And I said that eventually this would change, and oil and gold would move in the same direction, and that may already be happening. We didn't see much movement in gold this week. But we saw a big movement in oil. But gold hasn't fallen, and the fact that it hasn't fallen, and has actually been able to rise, I think shows that this is happening, and that's very important for precious metals investors.
And look what happened. Silver rose 2.4% for the week, but is still down 20% for the year. Gold has barely fallen in a year. No, no, no, I'm sorry. It fell by about 7% per year. But they are wrong. In fact, they are bullish on gold. And this week could be a sign that investors are starting to understand that.
In fact, if you look at what happened to mining stocks , GDX is up 5.6 % for the week, and GDXJ is up 5.8%. These are not bad moves considering gold is only up 1%. This week saw significant leverage in mining companies compared to metals. I think this is a good sign that we have reached the bottom and that we are moving much higher.
These stocks are still a great buy. They have decreased over the year. The GDX index has fallen by 12.25% since the beginning of the year, and the GDXJ by 14%. And another week where Bitcoin did n't actually move anywhere. I mean, I know the week isn't quite over yet, the weekend is ahead, but as of the close of markets on Friday, Bitcoin had lost about 1% for the week.
It seems to have ended trading around the 65,000 mark or a little below last week. And this week it has barely been able to rise or close above 64,000. In fact, as I write this on Saturday afternoon, Bitcoin is trading around 64,300 with a tail. So, oil prices are now up 30% in July, and there's still a whole week to go.
We can reach 100 by the end of the month. We'll see. But 90 is already a pretty high price. If you remember, I talked about this and warned on my podcast when the June CPI data came out that the markets were celebrating, we had a rally because the CPI in June fell more than expected. It seems to have been 0.4% versus the expected 0.1%.
The decrease was due to energy sources. Energy prices fell by more than 20% in a month. And that was the reason, actually, the only real reason why we saw such a big drop. But people thought, "Okay, the Fed won't have to raise rates." " Inflation is falling." The annual rate was still 3.5%, despite this.
But I warn you: Peter Schiff just spent an hour talking about Japan, and most people will come away with the wrong conclusions. The main topic is Japan. The number that should stop you is 5.16%. This is the level at which the 30- year Treasury bond closed—a 20-year high, the highest since 2006. then.
Back then, the national debt was only a fraction of what we have today. It now stands at over 39.6 trillion. Same yield, but a completely different account. Here is the mechanism that Schiff describes, and it is important to be precise about it . Japan owns more than $1.1 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds, the largest foreign holder on the planet, and Japanese government bond yields have finally risen.
that it was too early to celebrate the fall in oil prices, especially related to that memorandum of understanding, which, you know, was nothing. And it turned out that this was not a decrease. So the July CPI, which we'll get sometime in August, I forget the exact date, will have more growth than we had declines.
So overall, annual CPI figures are trending upward. So, Wall Street should be prepared for negative readings on this number. Now, bond prices are probably even more important. Bond yields hit new highs for this move. So, new highs after the Iran war. While oil has yet to reach a new high, it could still rise higher to surpass the peak since the war.
But oil prices and bonds , bond yields, were positively correlated. But bonds are now falling even faster than oil is rising . The yield on 10- year Treasury bonds reached 4.68 or even higher. I saw her at 4.71, maybe 4.72. The week closed at 4.68, sorry. But it's close to the highs of the week. And the 30-year bond yield closed at 5.16%.
This is a 20- year maximum. This is the highest 30-year bond yield since 2006. The highest I saw during the week was 5.16%. I think, no, 5.19. I don't know if it reached 5.2. Should achieve this next week. Probably by Monday. But this is very important. I mean the national debt, the US national debt, which is now over 39.6 trillion, heading towards 40 trillion and will reach 50 trillion in a few years.
But the debt is now more than four times greater than it was in 2006. So having to pay 5.16% on 30-year bonds is much more problematic. Or these yields, rising yields , on 10-year bonds are much more problematic now than they were at similar rates 20 years ago, when we needed to finance much less debt.
And it's not just the government that has all this debt. The private sector is also burdened with debt. Everyone went ashore in debt. I remember when the Japanese government set a limit on 10- year JGBs at half a percent, 50 basis points, and I said there was no way they would hold that limit. I said the yield would go to 1%, then 2%, then 2.5%, then 3%.
Well, we're at 2.8 now. This is the highest since 1996. It's been 30 years since the Japanese had to pay 2.8% on 10- year bonds. But, of course, 30 years ago, Japan had almost no debt. All of this debt was accumulated through the senseless policy of artificially restraining the yen and attempting to create inflation, on the theory that it would help exports by weakening the currency.
10-year bonds are at 2.8%—the highest since 1996. 30- year-olds—almost 4%. This is the highest level in Japanese history. With a debt-to-GDP ratio of over 200% and rates still at 1%, Schiff argues that Japan should raise rates sharply, and if they do, they will sell Treasuries to protect the yen. Pay attention to the "if".
Schiff, CEO of Europacific Capital, does not give specific dates. He describes the trap. Now let me give you an honest warning, because you deserve it. This is not a new thesis. Japan's debt has been above 200% of GDP for years, and Schiff has been wrong with his predictions before. What changes the price of yields at 1996 levels?
Highs and historical peaks are not a forecast. This is already a market movement. And here's what I think is really important to you, which Schiff mentions almost in passing. Gold rose 1% for the week, silver 2.4%, but GDX jumped 5.6% and GDXJ 5.8%. Mining companies have demonstrated profitability approximately five times higher than gold.
This is leverage finally showing up on the news feed. What mining stocks should have done, but mostly haven't done, for years. That same week, Bitcoin fell by almost 1%. Keep track of which asset the money is actually choosing. Second signal: Oil jumped 30 % in July, possibly hitting $100 by the end of the month, with gold and oil moving in the same direction again after a long gap.
This combination indicates the awakening of inflation trading . This is much more than a story about metals. So, let 's summarize. If Japan is forced to sell Treasury bonds in a market where 30-years already yield 5.16%, someone has to buy them. There is only one buyer with an unlimited balance , and it is not a foreign government.
That's the entire argument in favor of precious metals in one sentence. His section on tariffs is separate, but leads to the same result. Bigger deficits, fewer manufacturing jobs, and a tax that Americans pay on themselves . Two things to watch out for from now on. 30- year JGB and GDX relative to gold. These two indicators will tell you whether it is still a thesis or a done deal.
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