저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 인플레이션이 공급충격으로 꺾이고 디플레이션으로 이어질 것이며, 연준이 긴축을 마무리하면 혁신주와 비트코인이 반등할 것으로 본다. 금리와 인플레이션: 연준이 금리를 크게 올려 장기 듀레이션 자산이 지난해 크게 하락했다. 채권시장도 1700년대 이후 최악의 해를 겪었다. 인플레이션은 선행지표가 빠르게 하락하고 있어 꺾이는 중이며, 일부 지역에서는 이미 디플레이션이 나타난다고 주장한다. 역사적 비유: 1970년대가 아니라 1920년대(스페인 독감, 1차대전, 금본위제 하 통화공급 축소)에 가깝다고 본다. 당시 물가는 1920년 6월 24%에서 1921년 6월 -15%로 떨어졌고 이후 전기·전화·자동차 등 혁신과 함께 1920년대 호황이 왔다. 비트코인: 기술적으로 MACD 긍정적 다이버전스가 나타나 상승 모멘텀 가능성이 있다고 언급된다. 현재 약 3만 달러 수준이며 2021년 11월 고점 대비 약 56% 하락 상태다. 노보그래츠는 연준 금리 동결, 리플 소송 승소, 비트코인 현물 ETF 승인, 바이낸스 합의를 상승 촉매로 꼽았고 ETF 승인은 '여부'가 아니라 '시점'의 문제라고 봤다. 아크 펀드: 아크의 자산 유출입이 최근 개선되었고, 아크K가 2022년 저점 부근에서 박스권을 상향 돌파했다고 본다. 나스닥100 대비 아크K가 훨씬 낮아 투자자들이 혁신 펀드로 이동하고 있다고 주장한다. 블랙록: 래리 핑크는 금 투자자들의 암호화폐 관심 증가, ETF의 민주화 효과, 달러 헤지 수단으로서의 암호화폐 수요를 언급했다. 블랙록 2분기 조정 EPS 9.28달러, 매출 44.6억 달러, 운용자산 9조 달러 이상이다. 리스크: 자산 차익실현 가능성이 언급되었으나 구체적 조건은 제시되지 않았다. 출연자 전망: 캐시 우드는 혁신주 강세와 인플레이션 둔화를 낙관하며, 연준이 디플레이션 국면에 맞춰 정책을 조정할 것으로 본다.
다듬은 글
uh interest rates the FED jacked interest rates up 21 fold any long duration asset and in the world of equities Innovation is going to be the longest duration all long duration assets were slaughtered last year the bond market now that's long duration as well but it's usually a flight to safety vehicle the bond market last year had its worst year since the set sometime in the 1700s if that was going to happen to bonds which are usually flight to safety just because they were long duration that was going to happen to Arc in Spades and it did now where are we the market is starting to look to the other side of the interest rate increase and they're starting to look at inflation which is crumbling inflation is crumbling I know that a lot of people use the word sticky but you look at the lead and in horror then you look at the leading indicators of they are coming down rapidly and we do believe we're going to see deflation uh which we're already seeing it in many places but even in the broader based indices and the FED will have to adjust and will be on the other side of the horror show we just went it went through foreign hello and welcome to Money Talks in today's video Kathy Wood takes us through her prediction for the fed's next move on inflation and where she thinks the market will go in the next months so without further Ado let's get started with the video I I don't think we'll be wrong about it when we were in covid we were the we were talking about inventory shortages that would cause supply chain problems and the inflation that would come from that sure we didn't know about Russia's invasion of Ukraine but I think when history is the judge and it will be that uh history will judge the inflation we went through as a mass as a as the result of a massive Supply shock to the system and they will look at the comparison not to the 70s which I know Larry Summers and Muhammad alerian and others have used that analogy we use the 19 teams we went through a pandemic back then the Spanish Flu we went through a war world war one we were on the gold standard so money supply had to fall as inflation went up inflation went to 24 24 June of 1920 dropped to -15 in June of 1921 and we moved into the Roaring Twenties why massive Innovation telephone electricity automobile this period is much more like that period than like the 70s and again history is the judge it will look at the inflation chart which went like this and is going like this now all right it will seem like it happened in a Flash even though going through it feels uh like we're in slow motion the Bitcoin Market sentiment is indicating potential growth as suggested by the moving average convergence Divergence a widely used technical analysis tool renowned financial analyst Jake wujostik recently pointed it out on Twitter that Bitcoin has experienced a positive Divergence cross suggesting a possible bullish momentum although Bitcoin recently surpassed the thirty one thousand dollars level after a favorable ruling in the Ripple vs SEC case it is still facing resistance while attempting to consolidate its position on major spot exchanges Bitcoin is currently hovering around the thirty thousand three hundred and five dollars Mark with its market cap approaching 590 billion dollars and a 24-hour trading volume exceeding 7.6 billion dollars coin gecko data reveals that Bitcoin has declined approximately 56 percent from its record high of 69 044.77 reached on November 10 2021.
Mike novogratz CEO of Galaxy digital and a prominent cryptocurrency Enthusiast has identified four potential catalysts that could drive bullish momentum in the crypto Market according to his recent tweet these catalysts include the Federal Reserve pausing rate high likes Ripple winning its lawsuit the approval of a Bitcoin exchange traded fund ETF and binance reaching a settlement with regulatory authorities novogratz firmly believes that the approval of a Bitcoin ETF is not a matter of if but rather when such an approval could have a significant impact on bitcoin's price by opening the doors to a wider range of institutional investors we asset retention has been spectacular I think everyone would agree with that asset retention through 21 and 22.
we are up more than 50 percent some of our funds 60 plus so there would be natural profit taking but there's something else that has happened over the last year our stock developed what what Traders would call a very nice base a trading range and I think we began to see opportunistic trading uh in the mid 30s to the mid 40s and it seemed to top out regularly in the mid 40s well we've just broken through that and so recently this week our flows picked up very nicely because there are Traders out there who are looking at uh Arc stock and says wow if it breaks out of this nice long base it could have a very powerful move here and uh and as you can see from the chart we are still down if you look if you compare ark-k to the the NASDAQ 100 you'll see the nasdaqs you know getting close to its all-time highs and arkk which is full of innovation is much closer to its low so I do think we're beginning to see uh investors shift from the NASDAQ 100 or NASDAQ take take maybe losses or gains there and into our Innovation fund because I think the values when it comes to Innovation are in our fund Larry Fink CEO of BlackRock has expressed optimism regarding the growing interest in cryptocurrencies among gold investors in an interview following blackrock's second quarter earnings report Fink highlighted The increased inquiries from gold investors about cryptocurrencies over the past five years he drew parallels between the impact of exchange-traded funds ETFs in democratizing access to gold and their potential to info influence the crypto Market Fink emphasized that more gold investors are considering cryptocurrencies as a hedge against fluctuations in the value of the U.S dollar according to Fink blackrock's foray into the cryptocurrency market aligns with the company's objective of creating user-friendly and cost-effective investment products he believes that ETFs play a transformative role in democratizing investing and sees BlackRock as being at the early stages of this transformation BlackRock recently reported strong second quarter results with adjusted earnings per share of 9.28 on 4.46 billion dollars in Revenue the company's assets under management now exceed nine trillion dollars this is not the first time Fink has expressed support for Bitcoin since BlackRock filed its application for a spot ETF he commended Bitcoin earlier this month for its potential to revolutionize the financial industry likening it to the digitization of gold thinks continued optimism coupled with blackrock's commitment to accessible investment products through the spot Bitcoin ETF application indicates a growing acceptance of cryptocurrencies as investment assets within the institutional realm it reflects the evolving nature of the cryptocurrency market and highlights the potential for diversification and hedging against currency fluctuations offered by cryptocurrencies so what's your price prediction for Bitcoin at the end of 2023 tell us in the comments also don't forget to like And subscribe see you soon with the next video thank you so much for watching right
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