저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 테슬라는 전기차 회사를 넘어 에너지·로보택시 사업으로 성장할 여지가 크다는 주장이며, 성장 시점과 실현 여부는 불확실하다고 본다. 에너지 사업: 테슬라 에너지(태양광·에너지 저장)는 과소평가되어 있으며 최소 자동차 사업만큼 커질 수 있다는 주장. 머스크는 향후 2년 내 에너지 사업 성장을 강조. 에너지 사업 근거: 메가팩 등 유틸리티급 배터리 판매, 약 25만 대 이상의 파워월 출하, 캘리포니아 가상발전소(약 42MWh) 등을 언급. 에너지 사업 리스크: 태양광 사업의 솔라시티 인수 소송, 버펄로 태양광 패널 공장 문제, 배터리 셀 부족, 숙련 전기기사 인력난, 경쟁사(Sunrun 등)와의 경쟁. 로보택시: 테슬라는 약 150억 마일의 주행 데이터로 구글(약 2,500만 마일) 대비 압도적 우위를 점한다는 주장. 데이터 우위가 자율주행 시장 선점으로 이어질 것이라 봄. 로보택시 시점: 로보택시 시장은 약 3년 후에나 본격화될 것으로 언급. 로보택시 리스크: 테슬라는 아직 완전한 자율주행 능력이 부족하며 머스크의 과장된 주장 이력이 있다는 지적. 수익 모델: 완전자율주행(FSD) 패키지를 1만 달러 일시불에서 구독형으로 전환해 반복 매출을 만드는 계획. 주가 전망: 에너지 사업 성장이 주가를 크게 끌어올릴지 여부는 명확히 결론짓지 않음. 과거 테슬라가 기대에 못 미친 사례가 많다는 점을 상기. 출연자 의견: 테슬라가 장기적으로 21세기의 GE가 될 수 있다는 창업자 발언 인용, 에너지 시장 기회를 놓치는 사람이 많을 것이라는 견해 제시.
다듬은 글
chth Palapa just told the world a huge secret about Tesla's future we need to talk about it almost every Tesla estimate you see on YouTube and in the news from both bears and Bulls is wrong because it doesn't take into account two important factors one Tesla's energy business is way overlooked it should be at least as big as its car business and it probably will be much bigger two the robo taxi Market of the future Tesla is already in the lead in this market because it has data from 15 billion miles of roads and is growing faster than anyone else Google in second place only has 25 million miles and the Gap keeps getting bigger the company with the most data will win in the market for self-driving cars and by extension bought taxes and Tesla is still ahead of everyone else will Tesla's stock go through the roof because of their energy business watch on to find out everything Tesla incorpor operated is more than just a car company says Alon musk that goal which has been pushed aside for years because of problems with making cars is now finally becoming clear between now and 2022 musk's electric car company is working hard to become a bigger provider of energy storage for houses and the power grid as a whole Tesla should now focus on its energy business which includes solar and energy storage this is a good time for them to do it because they have been putting off working on their electric car assembly line for a long time Alon musk has been preaching this theme for almost 2 years ever since Tesla made a big profit in the third quarter of 2021 it took a lot of work to change where we put our resources Tesla's CEO Alon musk told Wall Street experts in a teleconference after the company's earnings report in November Tesla is now thought to have very fast growth that will last as long as we can imagine musk says it's hard to overstate how important Tesla energy will be to the company in the future but it will definitely play a big part it's not uncommon for us to say or want big things he said that Tesla energy could become about as big as Tesla's car business and that solder would grow the fastest of all the Technologies I think both will grow faster over time than cars with storage coming in second he said they say that if you look at growth from one year to the next it will be truly amazing to see such a huge jump beyond the model 3 rep point septics also point to a number of other possible reasons why musk might be in salesperson mode for the solar and energy business in the past few years the solar business has been linked to more bad news than good Tesla is being sued by shareholders over its disputed purchase of SolarCity in 2016 musk has talked about a solar roof for years but it's not going so well yet its solar panel Factory in Buffalo New York has had a lot of of problems and customers have said bad things about its solar business Tesla is trying to make the Home Hardware environment more like Apple Incorporated which makes people who have already bought something want to buy more a lot of Tesla users already have the Triple Crown of Tesla products an electric car in the driveway solar panels or a Tesla solar roof on the roof and a power wall home battery in the garage or outside Tesla's main goal is to build homes that can use as little energy as possible and run on their own the idea is to live in a house that is driven by Tesla this dish will be brought to you in pieces people have long thought of electric cars as a way to get into solar power because charging a car makes your electric bill go up a lot which solar can help offset over time musk said in October that a house with two cars would have its power if both of the patrol cars were replaced with electric cars how much was used doubled people people who buy tens of thousands of dollars worth of Tesla solar tools are strongly urged to also buy a power wall so far more than 250,000 of them have been sent out into the world for companies that are under a lot of pressure to cut greenhouse gas emissions from coal and natural gas Tesla's bait projects are also likely to gain traction this year using batteries to store green energy is a good idea the 182.5 M elorn battery energy storage system was built by PGE ecorp and Tesla in the San Francisco Bay Area it is at the utilities plant near monter Bay when it goes live later this year it will be one of the world's biggest utility-owned systems it will be able to power about 136,00 homes for a long time according to Tesla's website the mega pack is their utility scale battery product it is a flexible system that costs around1 .4 million for a 0.8mb battery the size of a shipping container the alorn method makes use of a lot of them musk's team is building a factory in Lop in the Central Valley of California so they can start making MEAP packs in large numbers Alon musk's test program for a virtual power plant is at the heart of home and grid this lets people who use energy from California's three biggest utilities send it back to the grid when demand is high a report from the California Public Utilities Commission says that Tesla members have 42 MD of batteries which is enough to power about 31,500 homes the business was just given permission to sell electricity straight to people in Texas it is also putting together an energy trade team to help wholesalers buy batteries Tesla will have to deal with a lot of problems the company's energy goals have often been hampered by a lack of battery cells and a tough job market market for skilled electricians big businesses as well as well-known companies that install solar and rooftop batteries such as Sunrun Incorporated have a lot of competition leaders in the energy business of the company don't stay for long amounts of time which can cause more delays musks focus on Tesla's solar roof those shingle sized pieces of textured glass that have photovoltaic cells inside makes it hard for new leaders to get along with him more than five years after musk's demo models helped Tesla owners agree to buy Solarity for $2 billion musk is still at it customers like the way the solar roof looks but it's still expensive and hard to put on a lot of problems came up with the deal while musk was chairman and biggest shareholder in SolarCity the day-to-day running of the business was done by his cousins all of this doesn't seem to have slowed down the real followers Antonio Garcia a founder of Tesla and past board member told a Delaware Chancery Court last summer during a SolarCity purchase trial that the company hasn't changed its original goal to change the way the world makes energy his comment was I think Tesla will be the General Electric of the 21st century we've been on that road since then even though the robotaxi market won't be here for another 3 years Tesla is already leading the way in changing the way energy is used but could it get even bigger once more Tesla is ahead of everyone else at this point it's taking the form of deregulated energy and decentralized Delivery Systems Tesla will go all out the only question is when Al on the energy Market just like many people missed out when this happened with cars I think the same number of people will miss this chance I'm sure it won't be me though chamoth or Cathy wood musk also said that starting in q1 Tesla's full self-driving package will be offered offered as a subscription instead of as a onetime $10,000 add-on this will help Tesla start making recurring Revenue while it works to improve its self-driving technology even if use only makes a$1 trillion doll value double it makes sense musk says it's possible that investors already think Tesla's cars will someday turn into Robo taxes that make money but the company isn't even close to having those skills yet and must has a history of making big claims about new technology IES musk said that because it's mostly just software making $50 billion worth of cars would be the same as making an extra $50 billion batteries called lithium ion are used to power Tesla's electric cars these are the same batteries that power smartphones computers and other electronics what they come up with next would be interesting to see we can only focus on Tesla's stock for now many times in the past this company has not lived up to our standards what do you think about Tesla's plans for the future of energy write your answer in the box below
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