저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
지정학 리스크로 비트코인 급락(IBIT 대규모 유출), 레버리지 청산 발생했으나 장기적으로 비트코인 상승 추세 유지 전망. 금 대비 주식·유가 관련 장기 강세 견해, 유가 장기 하락 전망. 주택시장 침체·모기지금리 하락 기대, 자본지출 회복 및 AI·규제 완화에 따른 장기 낙관. 규제 정비(Clarity Act)가 기관 자금 유입의 핵심 변수로 제시.
다듬은 글
uh, risk, measures of risk, credit default swaps in the banking system, especially with the private credit debacle we've been we've been saying we've said it's not systemic. This would corroborate it. The latest tick here has been down. And finally, uh, the high yield, uh, spread, high yield bonds or junk bonds relative to 10-year bonds in terms of their yields, again, very low by historical standards.
Uh, no spike in the aftermath of the uh, private credit, um, uh, uh, sell-off here. The sudden rise in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has caused a huge drop in the crypto market. This happened after reports said that the US attacked Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz. This led to threats of retaliation and missile activity from Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, which ended what had been a fragile ceasefire.
Bitcoin has dropped below $73,000, and Ethereum briefly fell below $2,000. Within 24 hours, nearly $1 billion in leveraged crypto positions were closed, and BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, saw its biggest single-day outflow of over $527 million. This is a big red flag because ETF demand has been a key part of this market cycle.
As worries about geopolitics grow, that has paid off, and investors run away from risky assets. The market is experiencing one of the sharpest sharpest changes in mood in months. However, some well-known figures in finance think this panic could finally create a strong long-term case for crypto. Uh, here, uh, we're into market indicators, uh, and we're beginning to see slow, slow, slow, but that metals to gold ratio, in green there, it's trying to turn.
Uh, maybe more because gold is falling than metals increasing, but at least uh, we're seeing some stabilization. Uh we are not seeing much of improvement in the 10-year Treasury yield. Uh but if growth picks up dramatically and the 10-year Treasury yield were to stay uh around here, uh that would suggest that the yield curve um is going to continue flatten and perhaps invert.
And at in a recovery, and if we look back to the last technology revolution, which was telephone, electricity, internal combustion engine, building on the railroad ecosystem uh that had been built out in the United States. During that period, the 50 years through the Roaring Twenties, the yield curve was inverted most of the time, and the average inversion was roughly 100 basis points.
Here is the price to gold ratio, as I've mentioned, um a strategist I've always admired, Charles Gave of GaveKal, um it really believes that we're going back into a 70s-style environment, and here you can see the S&P fell relative to gold very dramatically. He is focused on our deficit, the government deficit, and and our debt level.
And I've already told you what we think about that. We disagree with him. We think this is going to reverse, and we think it will go to all-time highs. Uh we've got a little bit of a leading indicator here. Uh despite the the rapid increase in oil prices, um this ratio, S&P to oil, is closer to its all-time high.
And we like to look at both gold and crude oil, often do a ratio of them. Uh but here with transitive property, you can you can see we're using uh the S&P. And um it's closer to its high. So, we think it also will go to an all-time high because we really do think oil prices, now that the UAE has moved out of OPEC, uh that it's going to open the floodgates.
It's been frustrated for years, years and years. And of course, we have Venezuelan oil gushing out as well. And the US, it is stunning. The US uh crude oil exports have gone from essentially zero in 2015 to 6 million barrels per day. And our production is at 13 million barrels per day. And this oil price is inviting It's a clarion call for even more production.
So, we think we're going to see big drops in oil prices in the years ahead. And of course, Russia is It's the only way to finance the war, but it'll only be It'll be the only way to finance uh its uh return from war and getting its economy back on track. Um and finally, in terms of at least uh we have a few more indicators, but these are the big four for us.
Uh watching Bitcoin to gold, Bitcoin is moving up relative to gold. This um This uh would suggest that we've held the sort of the higher lows. The trend is up, shall I say? The trend is up over time. And we do believe it is up over time. We not be surprised to see gold continue to fall, especially if we're right on the dollar, and Bitcoin continue to increase.
And here, two measures of uh uh, risk, measures of risk, credit default swaps in the banking system, especially with the private credit debacle. We've been We've been saying we've said it's not systemic. This would corroborate it. The latest tick here has been down. And finally, uh, the high yield, uh, spread, high yield bonds or junk bonds relative to 10-year bonds in terms of their yields, again, very low by historical standards.
Uh, no spike in the aftermath of the private credit, um, uh, sell-off here. The speed and size of the sell-off make it especially important. Over 950 million dollars in crypto positions were erased in just 24 hours. And more than 90% of those losses came from long traders betting that prices would keep going up.
Bitcoin and Ethereum both saw huge waves of forced selling that wiped out all leverage across the market, instead of just a normal correction. People were scared that the political situation could get even worse, which once again showed Bitcoin's short-term behavior as a highly volatile global liquid asset.
Traders still rush to cash in Bitcoin when the military escalates, oil prices rise, and stock markets fall, despite its long-term reputation as digital gold. Along with the Strait of Hormuz, which is one of the world's most important energy corridors, traditional markets also fell as buyers moved their money into safer assets.
Still, big institutional investors say that Bitcoin's long-term trend is still very bullish. Cathie Wood agrees with this point of view. Her most recent comments on institutional adoption and regulation show that she thinks the whole crypto asset class may still be in the early stages of a huge global change.
If we're right, and the economy is really start on the good side, is starting to take off, and services follow, Um interest rates may not come back down that much more. Uh so, stay tuned. Uh the clearing of the housing market may have to take place more through pricing than through um than through interest rates.
Now, here's the good news. Um capital spending is beginning to boom. Now, what's interesting about this chart and I've uh watched it at really since since the early '90s. Uh we peaked at roughly the same level every other cycle. And now we've blown out and and and are moving rapidly and away from that former peak.
Uh so, you know, in the stock market when you say you've had a big base and it's lasted in this case 30 35 years, the breakout um is significant and probably will be sustained. Uh I think thanks to the deregulation and favorable tax policies here in the United States as I discussed earlier. Of course, of course, uh the AI boom and the power boom uh is behind this, but we're even beginning to see uh capital spending away from those two spaces moving uh higher.
And in fact, what's been so fascinating is Intel uh Corning um Flextronics, now called Flex, names from the previous bubble, Cisco, uh are are oh, today Akamai Akamai, my goodness. It's been, you know, a single-digit grower forever and it now it's now gotten a hyperscaler order uh wanting to leverage off its content delivery network.
So, you know, these are blasts from the past and it's basically saying that this AI boom is is carrying, you know, the old guard along with it. All hands on deck. Let's do this. So, it's fascinating. But, look at this. This surprised me. This is manufacturing construction for computer and electronics.
And it's into this year. And I said, "What the heck? This includes semiconductor manufacturing and other component manufacturing in the United States. It's going down. What's that?" It's the Chips Act in 2022, which was part of the stimulus that year. As trying to get us out of the COVID crash. And you can see how how, you know, extended it it was.
We went from below $20 billion to $120 billion. So, that's a six-fold increase. And now we're down to 70. We think this is going to turn around for obvious reasons. And it will add to that non-defense capital spending chart that you just saw. The trade deficit, which is the last piece of GDP that we review, we doubt is going to go is going to improve much from here because imports are increasing faster than exports.
And doesn't surprise us. We think our relative growth rate is higher than the rest of the world. So, I've said this before, we don't worry about this deficit that much uh because the flip side of it is a capital surplus. Uh again, foreign direct investment coming into the United States, equity investment, and so forth.
On the manufacturing side, flatbed truck market demand, more on the good side, there's been a big move up here corroborating this, you know, shipment of goods it is uh taking off out there. Uh now, here here is uh housing. Um and you can see that pricing is falling. New home price appreci- I mean, appreciation is non-existent.
Um uh really, the prices here have been falling for almost 3 years now, and they've just taken a turn for the worse. Uh so, and even existing homes uh prices, which are in the green here, essentially no inflation. And this is another reason we expect uh core inflation and overall inflation, consumer price inflation, to surprise on the low side of expectations uh in the next in the next 6 to 9 months.
Here you can see that existing home sales, nope, relapse. The spring selling season was terrible. We're in recession territory still. Here you can see uh the inventory of new one-family homes for sale, and it's starting to come down. Builders are starting to clear, probably with lower prices, and we may see that intensify um if, you know, if it during the next few months uh in response to the recent tick-up back up in mortgage uh prices.
They're going to cut prices to clear their inventory. Um you can see this is an interesting new chart. Um, uh, home US home buyers, the number of US home buyers, uh, which is in uh, the purple, those are down to 1.4 million people. And the number of uh, sellers are two, and you can see that we've never, at least in the history of this chart, it's a short history back to 2014, um, we've never seen this big of an imbalance between buyers and sellers.
Um, so here's a question for Katusa around that mortgage rate. Uh, will it average below 5.75 this year? And you can see there's a 19% chance. That is probably right. Uh, and the reason for that is, well, first let's show you where it is. We're at 6.4%. We've seen a little bit of a backup. It had ticked right below six, and so that five handle was getting people excited.
But, Short-term fears driving crypto prices right now, thanks to war news, liquidations, and general unpredictability in the economy. At the same time, major institutional investors and policy makers are laying the groundwork for much wider long-term adoption. Some of the biggest names in finance are not focused on today's volatility, but on where the industry is going over the next five to 10 years.
There's been a big change in politics and regulations in the US recently. President Trump announced plans to write down a future-proof digital asset market structure that can't be changed by anti-crypto policy makers. He also said that the regulations that were in place during the Gary Gensler era pushed innovation overseas.
But now America is reclaiming its title as the crypto capital of the world. Lawmakers are also moving in the same direction. For example, Senator Cynthia Lummis publicly asked Congress to send the Clarity Act to Trump's desk saying that clear regulation could lead to the next big phase of institutional adoption.
This view is in line with Kathy Wood's thesis that clear regulation will be one of the most important factors in attracting institutional capital to Bitcoin and other digital assets in the coming years. Even though there is short-term chaos going on right now, the bigger fight over crypto adoption, regulation, and the future of global finance is still moving forward slowly in the background.
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