저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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캐시 우드는 비트코인이 기관 채택과 ETF 유입, 글로벌 유동성 확대에 힘입어 2026년 신고점을 경신할 것이라 보고 2030년 기본 시나리오 73만 달러, 강세 시나리오 150만 달러를 제시한다. 스테이블코인이 비트코인 역할 일부를 대체했지만 금 강세로 상쇄된다고 본다. 바닥권은 5만~5.5만 달러로 판단하며, 연준 금리 인하와 AI발 디플레이션으로 인플레이션이 하향 안정될 것이라 전망한다. 현재 DeFi 영역은 이더리움·솔라나·하이퍼리퀴드 중심으로 베팅하고 있다고 밝힌다. 미국 청년 실업률 등 고용 둔화도 연준 완화 근거로 든다.
다듬은 글
Uh, in response to, you know, the crypto communities railing against trad fi getting in and spoiling spoiling the picture, he said, uh, that if that did not happen, then, uh, you probably would not see, uh, as strong a movement as we are going to see. Uh, and, uh, you know, he was very excited when he heard we were starting, uh, a spot Bitcoin ETF.
He said, "This is absolutely essential. If this new world is is going to effectively, um, take off and and dominate, ultimately." Strategy reported a record $12.54 billion mark-to-market loss in the first quarter of 2026 when Bitcoin fell from about $87,000 to $68,000. This was the biggest paper loss in the history of corporate Bitcoin because the company held 818,334 Bitcoin.
However, Bitcoin has since recovered to $81,500. So much of that loss has been erased in market value. Cathie Wood has long said that Bitcoin's extreme volatility is not a weakness, but the price to pay for getting such great long-term returns. This situation is a real-life example of her point of view.
Since 2015, she has said that even 50% corrections aren't that bad compared to the 80% to 95% crashes that happened in earlier Bitcoin cycles. Strategy kept its 11.5% preferred stock dividend even though it had a huge accounting loss. The company's stock went up 33% in April, and long-term holders who stuck with it through the downturn are now seeing the comeback happen quickly.
At the same time, crypto leaders at Consensus Miami reaffirmed their positive long-term outlook. For example, Arthur Hayes said that Bitcoin's growth in the future will be driven by global monetary expansion rather than regulation. And he set a price target of $125,000 for Bitcoin. Meanwhile, Solana's co-founder said that the Alpenglow upgrade could come out as early as next quarter.
Meanwhile, Kathy Wood's bold predictions that Bitcoin will reach $730,000 in a base case scenario and $1.5 million in a bull case scenario by 2030 are getting more attention. This is because institutional adoption, resilience to volatility, and growing confidence in crypto's role in the financial system are all adding to the bullish story.
Um I we would tend to uh agree with you. So, in in the world of innovation generally, um what happens is you'll you'll end up with pure plays that can move faster, uh and and, you know, become more creative, um just more nimble. And then you'll have the traditional players uh embracing these new technologies first to lower their costs, increase efficiency, increase productivity.
Um but then those in the traditional world who who do so the most aggressively and thoughtfully uh end up consolidating the more traditional world. So, these is example there is um you know, when Amazon happened upon the scene and we were in the internet bubble, I think the prevailing wisdom was, "Oh my gosh, traditional retail's going to be destroyed." And of course, a lot of boutiques have been uh displaced and disintermediated by the internet, but if you look at what Walmart has done in particular Walmart, you'll see how it has used the internet to build an online business and the guy who built it.
I think they bought Jet. I think that was the name of the company and and that has ballooned and taken a lot of share from smaller traditional retailers. So Walmart has consolidated the traditional space, but then you have Amazon which is you know the the the big dog out there and growing much more quickly than Walmart, but they're coexisting, right?
And in fact, what we're seeing Walmart do now which could impact Amazon is it's going very aggressively into drone technology and drone delivery in a way that I I think Amazon has struggled to do so and the the way it has done so is working with companies who have worked closely with regulators and the regulators have been more forthcoming and enabling Walmart to move into drone technology than Amazon has.
It's made a few blunders with with the regulators and has been held back in terms of its drone technology and it was way ahead of Walmart. I remember in the early days of Arc writing about Amazon being on its ninth generation of drones and now it's been it's it's just made some some blunders, I would say in its drive to pursue that technology.
Um in the world of of crypto likewise, uh we're going to have the traditional players embracing this technology. Um it's very interesting to watch uh JP Morgan in particular, especially since Jamie was and still is in many ways the biggest holdout uh when it comes to Bitcoin, but you know, he is letting his technology team overrule him uh and letting client demand uh overrule him as uh as JP Morgan uh uh uh approaches this technology.
In terms of watching DeFi build out, I think the pure plays um are are are going to be there'll be the network effect there, you know, Ethereum, Solana, Hyperliquid, we'll see. Um uh I would uh we would place our bets on them and we are placing our bets on them. We've bought uh some DATs uh for our ETFs.
Bitwise uh Immersion is one uh soulmate in the um in the Solana space and of course, you know, we're we're tiptoeing in. We knew there were just too many DATs being created uh and that there would be significant fallout and and now because we uh we post our trades every day, you'll see we've been uh tiptoeing uh back in a bit.
Uh or we've been moving towards more pure play expressions of Ether and Solana when we're allowed to. Some of our uh platform providers do not want us to own uh a Bitcoin ETF, certainly in the flagship um or or the uh Ether or Solana uh ETFs. So, we have to we have to work with you know, what our platform providers want.
And so, you've seen us gain exposure there. So yes, we think the DeFi world is going to be explosive. It has it has been already to some extent. We know there's been a lot of controversy about layer ones, layer twos, where will the economics and where will the value accrual be? And that's still sorting itself out.
So, we're paying a lot of attention to it. But we still think the big three or the big three, I'll include Bitcoin especially now that you know, we see wrapped Bitcoin and see it migrating to other platforms. But we would go with the big four then as I've just said. As we were evolving our Bitcoin thesis and evolving our DeFi thesis, Art Laffer once again, he's been a huge influence on my thinking.
He was my professor at University of Southern California. But more important, he's a monetary scholar and his vital interest in in in understanding technologies especially as they relate to economics. And I remember he said he said in response to you know, the crypto communities railing against TradFi getting in and spoiling spoiling the picture.
He said that if that did not happen, then you probably would not see as strong a movement as we are going to see. And you know, he was very excited when he heard we were starting a spot Bitcoin ETF. He said, "This is absolutely essential. If this new world is is going to effectively um take off and and dominate ultimately."
At Consensus Miami, Arthur Hayes gave a very controversial speech in which he said that Bitcoin's value comes from the fact that it is not regulated by traditional systems. He said that laws like the Clarity Act won't have much of an effect unless they lead to more money printing. And he insisted that his $125,000 Bitcoin target is based on the growth of fiat currency supply alone, not on changes in regulations.
Hayes showed historical data to a group of regulators, institutional investors, lawyers, and compliant professionals who have spent years building crypto regulatory frameworks. The data showed that Bitcoin's biggest price increases always happen at the times of aggressive monetary expansion, such as bank bailouts, COVID-era stimulus, fiscal spending programs, and war-related financing.
He said that Bitcoin has grown no matter what kind of government or politics is in place, whether they are friendly or unfriendly. This is because liquidity and money creation, not rules, have been the main things that have led to its long-term growth. From a different point of view, this view is very similar to Cathie Wood's main point.
Both see Bitcoin's value as being more connected to changes in economies money supply and overall financial trends than to changes in government rules. And uh we do believe that uh Bitcoin will um will get to you know, new all-time highs um in this next cycle. Many people don't uh but we do and you know that we're uh on record uh saying that our base case uh for 2030 is uh 730,000.
Our bull case is 1.5 million. We took a lot a lot of flak for or I did for for saying that stablecoins had usurped some of the role of Bitcoin, um which is true, certainly in emerging markets. Um but what uh what people missed when I was making that statement was that gold was rallying. So, the store of value role of Bitcoin is also moving up.
Uh and in fact, the two cancel each other out. Actually, the the stronger uh the stronger move has been gold relative to Bitcoins in terms of the impact on the Bitcoin price. Uh so, uh we're we think that we've Yeah, sure. We're in the bottoming out process. Uh you know, David Puell, who does our on-chain analytics, says the absolute co- capitulation would occur, meaning uh it we may get there.
I doubt it the way Bitcoin and other assets are acting, uh but that drop-dead uh price range is in the 50 to 55,000 range. Um as I said, and and you also uh are alluding to, we're seeing liquidity moves around the world. And uh many people, because the headlines are always talking about the Fed being hawkish, not wanting to ease.
Well, guess what? The Fed funds rate is down 100 175 basis points. And yet, uh the the narrative out there is, "Oh, they're too hawkish. They're too hawkish." They have started easing, and I think we're going to have um I think because inflation is going to surprise dramatically on the low side of expectations.
And I'll give you an anecdote. Pepsi. Now, what the heck does Pepsi have to do with this story? Well, we noticed that Frito-Lay about I'm going to say about 3 months ago cut its pricing 15% and today it announced that its volume surprised relative to expectations significantly. That's what should happen in a low-inflation world.
You cut prices, you get more unit growth. And that's certainly the case in the technology world and we're seeing massive deflation with AI training costs dropping 75% per year, AI inference costs, so how much does it cost ChatGPT to answer your questions, those costs are dropping 85 to 95% per year.
So, I think we're going to see a massive wave of good deflation out there and that is you cut prices, you get big unit growth and that's why we expect real GDP growth to accelerate as well. When the Fed sees inflation dropping and I don't know if you pay attention to Trueflation, Trueflation's inflation rate, even with gasoline prices doing what they have done, Trueflation is up to 1.8%.
It got below 1%. This is a measure of consumer price inflation, it's blockchain based, it's based on tens of thousands of items measured real time and the core inflation measure is up to only 1.3%. So, there was a tug-of-war in inflation by all measures including Trueflation that was in the 2 to 3% range for about 2 and 1/2 to three years.
Uh Trueflation says all of those are going to resolve to the downside. Uh and if that happens, uh we believe the Fed will ease, and one of the reasons they'll ease more is because the unemployment rate, uh while it is low, if you break it apart, you'll see entry-level jobs are being hit here. So, companies are not firing, but they're not hiring, either.
So, youth unemployment, or 16- to 24-year-old, that is at 8 and 1/2%. And now, it did get to 11%. It's at 8 and 1/2%. Uh but that that tells you that there is slack in the system on the in the employment side, which is pulling wage growth down, uh which is very interesting. If you look at any wage measures, you'll see they're decelerating as productivity is accelerating.
So, why would the Fed ease? The Fed would ease because the demand for money is increasing relative to the supply, and that's a function of unit growth. Uh and its role is uh to equilibri- or to accommodate real economic growth. Cathie Wood and Arthur Hayes look at Bitcoin from different, but complimentary, points of view.
Wood is interested in how institutions can adopt Bitcoin through ETFs, firms like BlackRock, Larry Fink support, and clear regulations that make it easier for investors to get in. Hayes, on the other hand, says that Bitcoin's real value comes from its ability to create more money and be independent of traditional financial systems.
Instead of being at odds with each other, they support a larger idea that says institutional adoption increases amount of capital that can join Bitcoin, while global money printing and fiat expansion are what drive long-term price growth, all of these factors back Wood's prediction that Bitcoin will be worth between $730,000 and $1.5 million by 2030.
Wood also brought up an important historical pattern from previous Bitcoin cycles. Gold would usually rise before Bitcoin went on its big bull runs. She thinks the same thing may be happening again in this cycle, which means that the recent rise in gold could be an early sign of another big Bitcoin surge to come.
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