저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
캐시 우드는 비트코인이 금 대비 저평가 상태이며 기관 ETF 보유가 견조해 하락 사이클 바닥 과정에 있다고 주장한다. 유동성 증가(통화량 성장률 4.9%)가 다음 상승을 이끌 것이며, 장기적으로 2030년 기본 시나리오 73만 달러, 강세 시나리오 150만 달러를 제시한다. 반면 벤 코웬은 현재 랠리가 과거 약세장의 일시 반등과 유사하다며 2026년 10월이 바닥일 수 있다고 본다. 두 견해는 공존 가능하다고 정리된다.
다듬은 글
We're seeing really labs evolve that have no people involved in them, but they're enabled by, you know, the the both defy and blockchain technology and peer-to-peer generally to carry out trials. They're called um self something labs. I've forgotten what they are, but you can look it up. Yeah. Um and and those are becoming the rage.
So, I think yes, agentic AI enabled by block blockchain based ecosystems, payments ecosystems, are going to take over. With a bull case target of $1.5 million and a base case price of $730,000 for Bitcoin by 2030, Cathie Wood recently made a daring prediction that defies conventional Wall Street expectations.
While many investors view Bitcoin's fall from $126,000 in October 2025 as a sign of the cryptocurrency market's weakness, Wood sees it as a reflection of a historical pattern in which gold rises first and Bitcoin follows. She notes that since 2019, the long-term correlation between gold and Bitcoin has only been 0.14, indicating that the two assets hardly ever move in tandem.
She also points out that gold's price increased from about $2,600 to $5,589 per ounce in about a year, in her opinion. Prior market cycles showed gold leading before Bitcoin eventually accelerated. This raises the crucial question of whether Bitcoin will repeat that historical pattern or the cycle has fundamentally altered the relationship between the two assets.
So, I think what's instructive is to watch what has happened to the ETFs, the the the Bitcoin in the ETFs, you know, how strong have those holders been? Uh and they've been pretty strong throughout this down cycle. Now, if you're an institution and you learn about this new asset class and you hear about this four-year cycle, you're you'll you'll start you'll dip your toe in and you know, start learning more, especially about this four-year cycle.
And you see a a 50% drop in Bitcoin and as a traditional asset manager, you know, that is a severe bear market, right? So, that looks like an opportunity. So, we do believe we've seen some averaging down here. Sure, you've had weak holders who have exited, uh but you've had them backfilled by uh institutions who were really beginning to understand what this new asset class is.
So, I think that's what's going on right now. Was this uh the four-year cycle? I don't think we'll ever know because we had the 1010 flash crash. That caused auto deleveraging. We who know a lot about uh the DeFi ecosystem, uh I know and I'm not speaking for Lorenzo, David, and Ray. Uh I'm sure they knew more than I did, but as a portfolio manager, when I heard what auto deleveraging was, where you know, it happened automatically on Binance and Binance did not cause this.
I know I'm on record saying that. I I as I learned more about it, uh you know, it was another round of tariff turmoil that, you know, flipped the switch, but then there was a software glitch on Binance and there was auto deleveraging, and those who thought they were hedged but were operating on two exchanges found out they were not hedged at all, and that ended badly for a lot of people.
I don't know if the final washout was 28 trillion or 30 trillion. I mean, billion. Sorry about that. 28 or 30 billion, but we think that has washed through. And so, that washing through, institutional support, maybe four-year cycle, I don't know. Maybe we're ameliorating the four-year cycle now that institutions are learning more.
But, the bottom line is we're in the bottoming process, and I do think liquidity is going to give us the next big burst. Increased liquidity will give us the next big burst in And And I'll tell you one other thing. This is a little esoteric, but if you're your listeners are into economics, what you see from our money growth rate going up or it's at 4.9% right now.
Now, nominal GDP is around 5%. So, it's basically accommodating nominal GDP. What the war has done, maybe, is caused velocity to slow down a bit. The velocity of money is the rate at which it turns over. So, if it's increasing, then it's turbocharging that 4.9%. In In terms of its impact on economic activity.
If it's decreasing, then it's a drag. So, you know, that may have caused some turbulence as well. Some Some changes in velocity. So, we have to watch that as well during the next few months. Yes. Well, you've heard of the expression agentic AI. Agentic AI. So, we're We're all to have a lot of chatbots working for us.
Um, I may have fewer than others. I just like to keep my life simple. It's like credit cards, you know. You don't have an open claw, Kathy? What? Pardon? No, no. I haven't You know, it's interesting. I haven't I I'll tell you my go-to, and our crypto team's a great example of harnessing Claude co-work
Okay. and doing reports. We put out a Bitcoin quarterly and a DeFi quarterly. The Bitcoin one, I think, drops today. Uh, so this is Thursday. Uh, and the DeFi quarterly will drop next week. I think it Ray Haddad, uh, and David Puell, um, worked with, obviously, Lorenzo on this. And I think they have cut the time to do those very lengthy and with reports with lots of charts.
They've caught They've cut the time to do that by 75%. And it's only going to get better from here. Think about that. That huge productivity unlock, freeing them up to do more deep research as opposed to, you know, all of this uh, superficial And And the reports aren't superficial, but actually making them.
Uh, there's a lot of administrative uh, involvement there. So, uh, but agentic AI, uh, just pulling a thread on that, you know, at some point, they're going to let their bots just go out and and do those reports. And, you know, they're We're going to need payments. We have to pay Claude and uh, and pay other robots who are giving us or our other companies that are giving us access to this data.
It's all going to be machine to machine, right? Uh and uh and what better than the internet financial system um to uh to accommodate it. We you know, taking out the middlemen from TradFi is absolutely essential if we're going to unlock these productivity gains. Uh and so, agentic commerce, same thing.
Uh I don't I hate shopping. I I really do. And I will have a shopper for me who knows my styles and is going to actually be trained by my personal shopper Lillian, uh who's semi-retiring anyway, and uh you know, it's just going to do shopping for me and I am not going to have to walk into a store. But, agentic a payments ecosystems are going to be a sense essential.
And we do think they're going to be blockchain based. Uh so, yes. And even in health care, uh we're we're seeing in uh drug discovery and uh uh and and trials, we're seeing uh really labs evolve that have no people involved in them, but they're enabled by, you know, the the uh both DeFi uh uh and blockchain technology and peer-to-peer generally uh uh to uh carry out trials.
They're called um self something labs. I've forgotten what they are, but you can look it up. Um and and those are becoming the rage. So, I think, yes, uh agentic AI um enabled by uh block blockchain-based uh uh ecosystems, payments ecosystems, uh are are going to take over. According to Cathie Wood, Bitcoin is now primarily positioned as a store value asset that directly competes with gold because stablecoins have essentially taken over the useful payment and transaction role that Bitcoin was initially anticipated to dominate in emerging markets.
Wood's long-term prediction that Bitcoin will reach $730,000 depends on Bitcoin eventually closing the gap with gold and eventually surpassing it. Given that gold has outperformed in recent months. Although the debate now focuses on whether the data actually confirms the beginning of Bitcoin's next major upward move or whether the rally is moving faster than fundamental support.
She thinks the current market conditions are starting to support that possibility. This is where cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen offers a more cautious viewpoint. He sees the current rally as a well-known market pattern that has not always ended well. Raising questions about whether Bitcoin's bullish momentum is truly sustainable or possibly on the verge of another cycle reversal.
Well, the seeds for uh, ev- everything that's going on today, they were planted in the early years of my career. Uh, so, in the '80s and '90s, uh, I watched seeds being planted for you know, for for everything that we're seeing today. You know, we didn't get the cloud though until 2006. Uh, so, that tells you the '80s and '90s ended with
tech and telecom bubble, uh, which simply, uh, happened because investors were just throwing capital at, uh, at anything that was dot com or internet related. Uh, and unfortunately, the the technologies weren't quite ready, uh, and the costs were way too high. So, as I said, the cloud didn't even exist until '06 with AWS and I remember back then trying to explain to investors and advisors what the cloud was.
It was such a foreign concept to them and we didn't get the really big breakthroughs in AI so deep learning in 2012 and then even more important transformer architecture in 2017 which which effectively led us towards chat GBT and natural language programming. So again, too much capital chasing too few opportunities too soon.
We went through the bust and you know, today we're in the opposite situation. We're ready for prime time with five innovation platforms as you say. Thank you for doing your homework involving 15 different technologies that are all converging and investors are fearful. They're really scared. As a portfolio manager, I much prefer operating in this environment than in the tech and telecom bubble.
It was crazy back then. So I think and I know many people find this hard to believe, the valuations today are much lower than what we saw during the bubble and the technologies are ready and most importantly, the costs are dropping at such an incredible rate that these technologies can be made available to more and more industries and more and more individuals.
So that's how it started. Why why did I start Arc in 2014? I started Arc because thanks to the tech and telecom bust and even more so the '08 '09 global financial crisis. We now have risk-averse investors, certainly in the institutional world, less so in the retail world. So risk aversion, and I saw our industry go passive.
That that caused the boom in ETFs to begin. And then even in the active world, benchmark sensitive. So watching portfolio managers really guide their screening for ideas with benchmarks. We don't do that. The screen for our ideas is our research, our original research. So yes, five platforms, 15 technologies, and I think research has to be reorganized.
In the traditional financial world you'll see research organized by sector or industry or sub-industry. Many firms have five consumer analysts, five healthcare analysts. We think that in order to capitalize on innovation correctly and efficiently, that that you have to set up a research team by those 15 technologies.
Why? Because they're going to cut across sectors, cut across industries. So you have to be looking at the technology and not silo in responsibilities by industries. Despite the current Bitcoin rally according to Benjamin Cowen the market has not yet behaved very differently from earlier bear market cycles in 2014, 2018, and 2019.
According to Cowen, Bitcoin typically rises through bull market support band, gets close to or briefly touches the 200-day moving average, pulls back to retest support, then bounces again before falling to a final major low that in previous cycles happened several months later. He notes that prior major lows were usually separated by 140 to 174 days, and that the current rally may still fit within that pattern.
Based on these historical timelines, he believes October 2026 could still mark the ultimate bottom of the current cycle. However, Cathie Wood is still optimistic about the long-term macro environment, citing Federal Reserve rate cuts, falling inflation, and quick advancements in AI that are lowering technology costs, and generating deflationary pressure, conditions that have historically increased liquidity and help Bitcoin.
However, Cowen cautions that Wood's long-term optimistic prediction that Bitcoin will reach extraordinarily high valuations by 2030 does not imply that the market has finished its current bear cycle. Both viewpoints, in his opinion, can coexist. Bitcoin may still experience significant long-term growth while also going through another significant decline prior to the start of the next sustained bull market, making the current rally potentially misleading because it resembles the same brief recoveries that have historically taken place prior to final capitulation phases in previous bear markets.
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