저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 짐 로저스는 2021년 1월 기준 금리 상승이 주식 밸류에이션을 압박할 리스크를 경고하면서도, 미국 달러 단기 강세를 예상해 달러를 보유하고, 원자재(특히 농산물·은·금)를 가장 저평가된 자산으로 보며 매수 대기 중이라고 말했다. [금리와 시장 리스크] 백신, 대규모 재정부양, 기업 실적이라는 강세 3대 축은 유지되지만, 금리 상승이 2020년 확대된 PER을 훼손할 수 있다고 봤다. 이미 일부 선진국에서 금리 상승이 나타나고 있다고 언급했다. [달러와 통화] 미국은 세계 최대 채무국이지만 위기 시 안전자산으로 몰리는 역사적 이유로 달러는 더 오를 수 있으며 버블이 될 수도 있다고 봤다. 그럼에도 달러는 향후 경쟁 통화 등장으로 끝날 것이라 예상했다. 유로는 유력하지 않고, 위안화는 태환성 부족으로 장기적으로만 가능성이 있다고 했다. [아시아·인도·중국·한국] 인도는 GST 등 개혁을 높이 평가하나 시장 개방이 부족하다고 아쉬워했다. 중국 주식과 일본 주식을 매수 중이며, 한국은 38선이 열리면 기회가 있다고 낙관했다. [농업·원자재] 농업은 오랜 침체 후 회복 중이며 중국·러시아 농업에 긍정적이다. 채권과 주식은 버블 또는 고평가 상태이고, 원자재, 특히 농산물이 역사적으로 가장 싼 자산이라고 봤다. 은은 고점 대비 약 50% 하락, 설탕은 70~80% 하락 상태라 더 사겠다고 했다. [금·은·비트코인] 현재는 조정을 기다리며 매수하지 않지만, 조정 시 금과 은을 크게 더 매수할 계획이다. 금과 은은 정부 신뢰 상실 시 더 오를 것이라 봤다. 비트코인은 보유하지 않았으며, 암호화폐는 많이 사라졌고 성공하면 정부가 개입할 것이라 봤다. [투자 원칙] 핫팁을 따르지 말고 자신이 잘 아는 분야에만 투자하라고 강조했다. 시장 타이밍은 못한다고 인정하며 조금씩 나누어 매수하는 방식을 택한다. [출연자 전망] 인터뷰 진행자 발언은 제외했다. 짐 로저스는 장기적으로 농산물과 원자재, 중국·러시아 농업, 금·은 매수 기회를 강조했다.
다듬은 글
fair enough so you know jim when i speak to at least the bullish cam you know i think the three pillars that kind of emerge in the bullish camper that you know we have strong earnings we have massive stimulus and of course the vaccine progress you know as has probably and all three proportions uh are not only still in place but are getting stronger uh day by day you know however the risk of one of the three pillars the risk to the market is not that one of these three plus crumble uh but instead that yields climb to certain extent that that undermines this part of the pe expansion that we have seen in 2020 uh in in worlds in markets all over so as the battle against the pandemic is won and fiscal stimulus numbers surge you know yields are bound to rise and we have been seeing that uh in pockets and developed markets already um taking place and uh you know you've had a very independent view for a long time and been bearish in parts on the us dollar and would we love to hear your thoughts given this current backdrop that do you think that the dollar's near-term and longer-term views or the theme is related to how yields play out or do you see that the doral is now given the stimulus in a structural downtrend because it has massive implications on ems well i own a lot of us dollars at the moment here uh the us is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world it's getting worse every day so you probably should say well why do you own us dollars i own them because you know we're going to have more problems turmoil in the world later this year or next year during times like that people always look for a safe haven they think the us dollar is a safe haven it's not but they think it is for historic reasons so the us dollar will go much higher um it might even turn into a bubble itself it'll certainly get overpriced at which point i'll have to sell my us dollar ship because if it's a bubble especially you always have to sell a bubble but there are many countries and many people now looking for a competitor for the us dollar for both political and economic reasons people know they have to find something to compete with the us dollar so i can see that the future i mean the us dollar is coming to an end it's been the main currency for well not a hundred years yet but for 75 or 80 years yet which is a long time in the history of currencies so i own it but i'm assuming if the end is coming sometime in the foreseeable so i guess that would lead to my next question is that you know a lot of people debate whether it's the euro or the chinese mmb or the yuan or you know which currency currently can actually be the next world reserve currency um do you have any thoughts there well i don't see that it can be the euro because there are too many people in europe who want to get out of the euro and when things get bad they'll blame problems on the euro i i would suspect it's the renminbi the chinese currency but ship right now the renminbi is not even a convertible currency i mean there's some block currency so it's absurd i know by the way i own some red men be but so it's absurd to say that the renminbi can be the world's reserve currency but china has been opening it up for since 2005 too slowly if you ask me but if and when the renminbi is completely convertible it's the only currency i can see on the horizon to compete with the us dollar fair enough so jim let me just kind of reiterate i mean i think i heard you a while back and you had mentioned a comment that you know if you were smart in the 19th century you would make your way to london if you were smart in the 20th century you would make your way to new york and uh you know and rightly said in the 21st century you've been a big proponent of asia and you live in singapore and you're a big believer of the asia story and in that context i would like to ask you that you know how do we view the indian economy uh given the last few years you know india has actually gone through a lot of big structural moves um you know we have had the gst the ibc a lot of you know initiatives that the government has has undergone and uh how big you view the indian opportunity within the context of other asia markets at the moment well back to india to start that just quickly uh i've been uh mr mr moody has not done as many of the things i thought he would do he has not been uh a biggest reformer in india as i hoped uh he certainly changed the tax the gst and that was brilliant and who thought who thought it could ever happen but he he did it we think he did it it looks like he did it so that is great but i wish india i wish all of asia but especially india would open up more because if you made it an open economy for trading and investing then you would have a much greater future so that's my main complaint with mr moody but other asian economies certainly china i've been buying chinese shares japanese shares i'm optimistic about the future of korea when the 38th parallel opens up there's still more opportunity certainly more opportunities in asia than there are in the west and if mr moody or somebody ever opens your markets oh my wouldn't india be very exciting absolutely no you hit the nail on the head um jim you know one more kind of uh topic that i want to touch on you know the indian rural economy and the sector has demonstrated very strong resilience uh in the last couple of months and uh agriculture being a backbone for our economy you know has a domino effect uh on the overall well-being of uh you know almost seventy percent of the population uh you know you have been a big uh bull on agriculture uh in the historic past uh would love to hear your current thoughts on the key trends to watch out in this space and you know how you are seeing you know probably some pockets elsewhere in the in the global markets as well in terms of agriculture um you know it's been in a downtrend for a while so you know please well uh yes i'm optimistic about agriculture it's been terrible for a long time and it's been now it's getting better you know land prices in the us are going up strongly uh india has a long history at times you've been one of the world's great agricultural nations you've got the soil you've got the weather you've got the people you've got the brains uh unfortunately at the moment you know agriculture is so regulated so controlled so distorted by the government the government says they're helping people oh my gosh sheriff it's very dangerous when the government says they're coming to help you when the government comes to help you you should leave home go away you don't want help from the government um but india should be and could be and will be a great agricultural nation again someday if the government would just get out of the way and leave all those smart farmers to do it uh i am optimistic about that in in china uh china the chinese say in the past 40 years the people in the city have done well but the people in the countryside have not done so well so now beijing will do anything you want to help you if you're in the countryside including if you start businesses in the countryside because they want this countryside to catch up now i'm optimistic about agriculture but especially in china where the government will do everything they can to help you russia i'm very you know russia too you read russian history it's like reading chinese i mean indian history at times russian farmers have been unbelievably successful and rich now i'm not more optimistic about russia than some countries because mr trump put sanctions on russia and so russian farmers every day wake up and say oh thank you mr trump thank you mr trump because now they're protected so russian agriculture is booming again and they too have soil and weather and people so especially in places like china and in china and russia i'm optimistic about agriculture but nearly everywhere and jim you know last three four months this whole reflation theme has picked up in the world and uh you know there has been also an element of supply display that happened do you think as the pandemic subsides and the economic activity normalizes you feel that the outperformance of metals will continue do you feel the outperformance of metals will continue in commodities as i look around the world shift uh bonds are in a bubble so they're very expensive many stock markets are becoming uh very expensive a property in some cities as we discussed before the cheapest asset class i can see worldwide is commodities now i mean silver's down 50 percent from its all-time high sugars down here silver sugar's down 70 or 80 percent from its all-time high you know most commodities are still very cheap on a historic basis certainly compared to apple or compared to government bonds or things like that so the cheapest asset class i see is commodities especially agricultural commodities perfect and you know indians are very enthusiastic about gold i mean i know you at the moment you love silver more than gold uh but do you think uh you're long-term as bullish as on on gold as you have been in the past i would really go over here too sure don't worry i i'm not buying either of them at the moment i'm waiting for the correction i don't know how long this correction will last you know a month of year i have no idea uh i will buy more of both i will buy more of silver as you point out because it is cheaper right now it's down 50 gold is down 10 or something so i will buy a lot of silver and gold sometime later because before this is overshare gold and silver gonna go much much higher because people always when they lose confidence in governments or money they always buy gold and silver you know i'm an old peasant politicians say you don't need gold get the indian politicians especially say get rid of the gold you don't need gold american politicians academics but i'm an old peasant and us old peasants know when things are bad we want some gold and silver in the closet we want some gold and silver under the bed so i'm an old peasant and i'm going to buy more in gold and silver no matter what the politicians say and if and you can somehow figure out a way to make people sell their gold and make the temple sell their gold and it goes down some of us old peasants are going to buy a lot of it wonderful jim i've been waiting to ask you this question on the new age gold which the fintech world is started talking about and you know bitcoin has had a phenomenal kind of rally in 2020.
um do you own any bitcoin is probably the one question and do you believe in that story or would you believe in it uh at some stage is the only question i have one on that cryptocurrency well yeah i wish i owned bitcoin of course i mean it's gone through the roof a lot of people i know have done very well and are doing very well in bitcoin i have never bought any cryptocurrency i i will point out that many cryptocurrencies have already disappeared and gone to zero bitcoin was not the only one you know there were hundreds of them at one time uh bitcoin has been a great success in the markets anyway my view uh is that if well first let me go back money is going to be on the computer it already is on the computer in china and china you can't take a taxi with money you have to have your computer money you can't buy screen with with money in china you have to have it on your computer money so it's going to be on the computer it already is in some places that will happen but it's going to be government money if bitcoin or crypto other cryptos are ever successful as money governments are going to outline i mean governments do not want to lose their monopoly they never have they do not want to lose their control now i mean i hate it i hate the government to have even more control but unfortunately they do the bitcoin guys they listen jim we're smarter than the government and of course they are shift but the government's got the guns the government's got the tanks and if the government makes it illegal most of us will stop using it so i i can certainly see it it's a great trading vehicle it has been anyway but if it becomes successful as money governments will step in fair enough i completely agree on that view as well so jim i mean i i also wanted to ask you you know as korea you know india the retail space has has actually been growing tremendously there's a lot of retail and new people are coming into the indian markets as well and i'm sure there are a lot of young people out here listening to your advice today as well uh what is the one advice you would like to give on personal finance and investing you know giving you a plethora of experience you know something just the one piece of advice that you would want to decimate as as a guidance yeah watch et what do you mean he's an investment advice no watch e.t read the newspaper i mean for goodness sakes uh after you watch we and and you know and learn from them the next part is only invest in what you yourself know a lot about everybody watching this knows a lot about something whether it's fashion or cars or sports only invest in what you know what do not listen to hot tips do not listen to me the last thing you wanted some guy you saw on the internet telling you to buy russian shipping well if you don't know about russian shipping don't think about buying russian shipping but when you stay with what you know that's how you get rich now ship everybody wants a hot tip oh just one hot tip just one forget it hot tips will bankrupt your hot tips will ruin you if you stay with what you know of course you many times you'll do nothing but if you wait until you see something that you know a lot about that's how you become successful now ship nobody wants that's boring boring boring no no we want a hot tip we want a hot tip the way to be successful as an investor is to do nothing until you yourself find something that you know is going to work you do some research and then you buy and by the way if you find one send me an email too i'll look it up i'll do some research myself uh but that's how you get rich whether you're young old no matter who you are if you want to be successful in the investing world that's what don't listen to odd tips listen to your own knowledge so jim here's another question for you you know on an investing um a lot of people ask me this question like how do you build conviction on an idea you know once you've done your you've done the hard research you think you have a good viewpoint on it uh do you in your investing career what has worked for you i mean have you gone full guns blazing once you have conviction or do you kind of you know tip your toe in and see you know whether you've got the direction right or is the momentum behind you you know what has worked for you and what kind of advice was you given on that perspective well first jim i i know that i'm very bad at market timing i may be the best worst market timer in the world probably am in the world so i know i'm not any good at that i don't try to do short-term training try to find things that i think are right and then i have learned that i better wait because my timing is so bad so i wait for a while my time is still bad don't think i'm any better at it but i wait and then i start buying and i buy gradually and slowly uh i don't pile in all at once and i and you because usually it goes down after after i start buying but then eventually it comes along and i have a lot more and if it works i it usually gets bigger and bigger and the more the way i like to do it i like to do nothing uh the most many successful investors do nothing most of the time they wait until they find something good and then once they buy it they just wait for it to to develop and grow and you know hopefully if you get it right years later you might sell it so that's my way i like to do nothing i like to do nothing and wait and then i like to once i own it after i've accumulated it for a while then i like to wait and do nothing and hopefully it goes up a lot wonderful you know in the positive time i wish this was an hour or two hour interview but uh you know for everyone listening and i just want to let everyone know i think jim is probably the most traveled person who will get onto this forum or ever will be on on any forum and you know you hold the guinness record for covering 116 countries by road uh i would love to hear one anecdote you know or memorable incident from you know that experience that you can relate to everyone uh or anything you know anything that came out of from that experience you know it's not that uh usual that we have uh such uh plethora of different adventures come on uh or at least i speak to people on that regard yeah i make a lot of you wanna hear about my first wife what a mistake that was a huge mistake oh my unbelievable i make a lot of mistakes in my in my life we can have a whole day about mistakes i have made we'll start with my first wife and we'll get and they go on and on and on that was a big one but i've made many many in the market too and some of them some of them are a market like bitcoin i never bought any bitcoin well i wish i had
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