저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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모비우스는 선거 국면의 군집심리를 경계하고 장기투자와 독립적 판단을 강조한다. 모디 3.0 체제에서 개혁이 약화될 우려를 표명하면서도 인도는 여전히 매력적이며 최근 하락이 저점 매수 기회일 수 있다고 본다. 정부 기관투자 절차 간소화 시 외국인 자금 유입이 늘 것이라 본다. 소프트웨어·반도체·컴퓨터 하드웨어 기업은 상대적으로 양호할 것으로 예상하며, PSU와 capex 관련 인프라주는 정책 변화로 타격이 우려된다. 장기적으로 인도 시장은 연 10~15% 수준의 상승 가능성을 언급하며 Sensex 10만 도달을 5년 내 가능하다고 말한다.
다듬은 글
first of all welcome to ET markets thank you thank you for taking your time out um so we'll start by talking about your book so in in the book of wealth which you've written you talk about how emotion is the portion for investors now this is clearly visible at the stage when you know in the in the election season herd mentality is is is is very common so how should one keep calm when the market is behaving insanely on both sides that's a very very important question because as I mentioned uh uh the herd is uh very prevalent in almost every circumstance in life whether it be Politics the market uh in shopping whatever uh and the way to to avoid being caught up with the herd is by uh being very strong and sting sitting back and say wait a minute uh do I want to do this do I want to move in this direction and um in when it comes to investing you always have to keep in mind that the best way to get the best value is to do what other people are not doing so uh you know there's an old saying the best time to buy is when others are very selling at a very unhappy period and the best time to sell is when everyone is greedily buying so um you've got to keep keep those principles in mind otherwise you'll get caught up with the herd right in your book you've also mentioned about how rakes jujala could not enjoy his wealth because of health issues would you agree that Traders die early as and investors especially like you you know live a very long life and a happy life well it depends on the trade some Traders enjoy the trading and they get you know enjoyment out of it but uh they have to balance their trading with uh life with health U and it's very important so unfortunately many Traders uh do it 24/7 otherwise they they don't take any time for anything else and that's when they get ill and their health declines and in India this is becoming a typical problem because of the surge in derivative trading among retail investors in particular how do you see this trend and the impact on the health yeah that's it can be very dangerous if people get involved with training on a day-by-day basis uh particularly for individuals as I point out in my book it's very important to be um uh to be a longer term investor let's say in other words take a longer term view buy a very good company and stay with it uh as long as the company remains profitable and is growing then you stay with that don't be uh swayed by markets ups and downs rumors what your friends and neighbors are doing you've got to be independent is probably the best way to put it Mark in your book you also write about the importance of frugality in your book now in a growing country like India where the middle class has so many aspirations and you know we're competing against each other and you know we always trying to outbeat you know the jasis as you say in the in America so don't you think it is tougher for the Gen Zed uh gen Z to be frugal it is very tough because you've got a bombardment of the hype machine I call the hype machine where uh the you've got your cell phone all the time looking at what people are buying what are selling you're following certain people and you see what they're buying and selling and you want to do the same so you've got to be resistant to this kind of uh enticement very very important and very difficult I might add but it's it's critical if you want to become wealthy because if you're spending all your money on privilege things that really have no long-term value then you're not going to become wealthy right so Mark now talking about the elections so how has your calculations for India changed given the fact that PM Modi is coming back most likely with a thinner majority uh yeah it is unfortunate and uh of course we have to re-evaluate uh the direction of the country because uh my general impression has been that the congress party has been the party of bureaucracy and of uh a slower decision making um now that may be wrong I may be wrong in that assessment hopefully the congress party has learned a lot from what Modi has been doing and maybe we'll continue the policies that Moi Modi has embraced uh but uh that gives me some concern if Mod's reforms will be hindered by the fact that they have lesser majority in Congress and they of course they have the congress party against them so it is concerned and by the way that that pessimism is reflected in the market I think a lot of other investors feel that way as well but um from a longer term point of view uh India is still an incredible place and in fact it might be a good time to be looking at the market with this downturn to find some investment Bargains do you think the market bottomed out yesterday yes it looks like it it may have bottomed up uh but um I think you've got to be cautious about that it's remains to be seen uh how the political situation turns out out and uh what kinds of policies will be followed by the the new uh the new conglomerate of powers that take place in Congress uh prime minister Narendra Modi had owned the success of psus like no other prime minister has ever did now do you think uh psus would be the worst hit we've already seen some of the correction playing out yesterday as well as today yes uh I think that they will be hit and not only those but others will be hit as well as a result of the change in policies uh you've seen some of the big infrastructure companies come down pretty dramatically um because there's a fear that maybe infrastructure will be slowing down the construction of Roads Bridges Etc will slow down but that's unfortunate but it remains to be seen I think we got to wait to see just exactly what the uh congress party along with other parties decide to do and how they decide to go forward which other other sectors besides psus and some of the capex linked sectors that you spoke about do you think are going to be the most affected well I think uh when you look at the overall situation of the economy in um in India uh the the sectors that are going to be doing well in my view will be the software and Technology sectors generally uh companies making uh computer hardware companies going into the semiconductor area companies doing software uh those companies will not be affected as much uh maybe on the consumer side you may see some effect but even there the economy is growing so fast even with all this political U upset uh those companies will do fairly well a lot of uh trade we are seeing in defensive stocks like you like FM CG for example you know given the fact that uh the new government is likely to be Pro welfare than Pro reform so how do you see this trade playing out that's that's a big question mark because if you're not pro reform then you're really going backwards uh you're not progressing so it's very very important for the congress party to embrace reform and change but that remains to be seen I think they may have le learned some lessons as a result of their failures in the past politically and maybe they will change do you fear that FIS are going to D dat India in the near term at least I don't think so I think uh uh fi realized that India is the future uh they've already seen that China has problems and they want to diversify away from China some some of these FIS have been badly burned in China and don't even want to go back to China that's probably a mistake because China is still a viable Market but nevertheless uh India is going to benefit from the desire of FIA to uh diversify and that's very important but at the same time we have also seen a reversal of this by India and sell China policy in the last maybe one one and a half months uh I think it's a very temporary phenomenon maybe people some people have talked about that but the reality is that when uh companies make decisions to diversify these decisions are not made uh easily in other words they're thinking of a longer term so companies like uh Apple like Microsoft big companies like that make long-term decisions and if they made a decision to do something in India they will proceed with that decision so as things stand now uh prime minister Narendra Modi is going to form the next NDA government and they will be Modi 3.0 so how what what is the kind of changes and policies that you are anticipating at this stage I understand is a little early to talk about it but given the fact that we already have a Manifesto pushed out by the BJP government by the BJP party before the elections so we can probably get some kind of if you can throw some light on it what what are the kind of expectations well my expectation is that uh the uh bureaucracy involved in uh accepting investments into India will become more streamlined up to now there's a great deal of bureaucracy necessary when you want to come into India to invest and I think that has got to be uh simplified and made easier if that is carried out then uh there will be a tremendous flow into India by Foreign investors earlier you just spoke about uh that there may be some buy the dip buy the dip opportunity in some of the stocks can you name can you give us some ideas of where do you see value emerging after the correction I think some of the believe it or not some of the construction companies materials construction materials that sort of thing will I think will recover and do well going forward because Indian needs infrastructure and they definitely regardless of what party is in power they will have to move forward on that given the fractured fractured mandate for BJP do you think you had earlier said about how S6 will hit one lakh mark in the next 5 years so as things stand now do you think still think that SX will hit one lakh in the next 5 years does that still stand oh definitely we're still on that upward tra trajectory there will always be corrections but but we're still in that direction we will hit that maybe even four five over even before 5 years right so typically Sinex and Nifty have a tendency to double every 5 years yes and India may be exception in terms of moving faster right right just to sum it up what you're trying to say is that uh the market there may be some short-term gains but in the long term the bull run in India is intact and this is not a a pause this is just a pause in the bull run but this is not the end to the Bull Run is that what you're trying to say exactly exactly uh we're certainly not at the end of The Bull Run uh see generally speaking you can say that if a country is growing at 7% like India is now growing uh the market and earnings of companies of good companies will go up double that 14 15% so you can expect uh the uh market index to be rising at that pace over the next 10 years thanks a lot Mark thanks for your time thank you thank you very much
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