저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 집 로저스는 인도에 대해 긍정적이나 직접 매수는 가격이 싸질 때까지 기다리겠다는 입장이며, 미국 달러와 은행 시스템, 금리 전망에는 비관적이다. 인도 시장 및 경제: 인도 시장은 최근 몇 달간 매우 성공적이었고 역대 최고 수준이다. 매수는 잘 되고 있어서가 아니라 싸질 때 하겠다고 함. GDP 수치는 정부 통계라 의심스럽지만 경제가 잘 가고 있다고 들었다고 함. 인도는 50~30년 전과 다르며 개혁이 진행 중이라 주목받을 것이라 함. 인도와 중국 비교: 많은 사람이 인도를 중국의 경쟁자 또는 대체재로 보기 시작했으나 본인은 그렇게 보지 않음. 인도가 경제를 홍보하고 인지도를 높이는 데 성공했다고 평가. 기타 투자처: 우즈베키스탄에 긍정적 변화가 보인다고 언급. 일본 주식은 수십 년 만에 오르면서 이미 매도했음. 값싼 곳은 많지 않고 일부 원자재 정도가 남아 있다고 봄. 미국 달러 및 은행: 본인이 달러를 많이 보유하고 있으나 장기간 강세와 워싱턴의 정책 때문에 달러도 걱정된다고 함. 대체 통화는 특정하지 않음. 무디스의 미국 10개 은행 신용전망 하향에 대해 늦었다고 평가하며, 미국 은행권이 과도하게 확장되어 앞으로 2~3년간 추가 실패나 문제가 나올 것을 매우 우려함. 금리 전망: 중앙은행들이 인플레이션을 잡았다고 착각하고 있으며 당분간 금리는 안정될 수 있으나 1~2년 내 인플레이션이 다시 오르면 금리가 훨씬 높아질 가능성을 우려. 70년대처럼 큰 조치가 필요할 수 있고 미국은 역사상 최대 채무국이 되었다고 언급. 금·은: 금을 보유 중이며 금은 사상 최고가 근처라 추가 매수는 하락 시로 봄. 은은 역사적으로 훨씬 싸다고 보고 본인도 보유 중이며 더 떨어지면 매수 가능성을 언급. 출연자 전망 정리: 장기적으로 인도 긍정, 미국 달러와 은행·금리에 대해 부정적 시각, 금과 은은 보유 및 조건부 매수.
다듬은 글
Jim how are you looking at India as an investment destination well as I said before and on India's at an all-time high somebody's done a brilliant job in in India I guess it's you maybe a ctet markets I don't know but uh India's been a very successful Market in the last few months so I'm not buying because it's doing so well but if and when things get cheap again in India I hope I'm smart enough to buy right now Jim let me also come to the GDP data which was released recently India's GDP printer remains strong so how do you see this compared to the world in terms of GDP growth and the macro prospects well first of all I'm a little suspicious of any government numbers no matter what government whether it's the us or Germany or whatever it is so I don't know but I do know from everything I read that the economy in India is doing very well as I said I mean some countries right now are having very prosperous times Japan at the Japanese markets finally going up after 30 years or something so India's done a great job not because of me because of you I know thank you so much for a kind version now uh we're also approaching the big event in which India is hosting the G20 meet here in Delhi uh how do you see that uh well for whatever reason more and more people are realizing that India is not the same India as it was 50 years ago or even 30 years ago India's making many changes to the economy to everything and so India's becoming a better publicized and better known country where positive changes are taking place so this is just going to bring more attention to you uh so you better keep doing a good job because everybody's going to be watching including me right right definitely a gym where we're gonna do that and uh let me also come to the point here that uh you know you've talked about the macro prospects about India but how are fi is looking at Indian markets uh well many people in the world are now comparing India to China many people in the world are beginning to think that India could be a competitor or replacement to China I don't know I don't think quite that way but I do know that India's done a good job India's publicizing it in just getting better known for its economy for for its market so ET Morgan says a good future what more people are going to be watching more and more people are going to be reading right now which are the other emerging kids or developed markets that are looking attractive at this point in time but actually according to you well as I look around I don't see many I mean in Pakistan I've been in Uzbekistan in the last few weeks but not many people can find Uzbekistan much less invest there I see very positive things happening there but you know there are not many places now I mean there are lots of markets that have gone up a lot Japan I sold my Japanese stocks recently because it's been going up after decades there are not many places that I know where things are still cheap other than maybe some commodities okay okay so right now you are largely sitting on the cache you could say that I own a lot of US dollars but even that worries me now and on because you know US dollar has been strong for a long time and I'm not sure they're really making things better in Washington they're probably making things worse so even I worry about my US Dollars now and I don't know another currency if you know the currency that's going to compete with the US dollar please do not announce it please do not announce it on there on economic Times keep it a secret send me an email because I'm looking right now uh in fact if you come to another uh you know the uh you could say the rating agency which is Moody's it has downgraded the credit Outlook of the 10 U.S banks so does that for you or is is that one of the reason why you're scared of the US dollar I don't know what took them so long why did it take so long to start downgrading U.S banks I mean the U.S banking said I mean I'm American citizen so I don't like what I'm about to say but the American banking system has gotten itself over extended many people and it always happens and on when there's there are good times everybody thinks ah I'm smart this is going to go on forever and that's what's happening with American Bank so no I'm afraid we're going to see more failures or at least any more problems in the American banking system other Banks too but we're talking about America so I'm very worried about what will happen in the next two or three years right now in fact we're also approaching the fomc meeting you know later this month so where do you see the interest rates are being headed well let me go stop going up for a while because you know all markets go up down up correct correct and that's been happening with inflation so the central banks think they're smart they think they solved the problem they have not solved the problem but you'll probably have interest rates to be stable or steady for a while but in the next year or two when inflation continues to rise more and more central banks will be worried and I'm afraid if we're going to see much higher interest rates before this is over I mean you know may not remember but in the 70s we had a period of inflation interest rates on treasury bills government short-term government paper in the United States for over 20 percent that's not a typo over 20 percent I mean they had to do something to kill inflation it took dramatic measures and they did it it's going to take dramatic measures next time too you know in 1980 when that happened the U.S was still a creditor Nation now the United States is the largest debtor nation in history so there are many differences that may make things worse also now that we have you uh Jim uh we want to get your outlook on the gold as well there's the yellow metal-headed the gold well I own gold I mean you may know I own gold uh absentum right here okay in case you need some I have some right here right here um no I own gold I own silver if I were buying either today I would buy silver silver is much cheaper on a historic basis but I own both uh not and I will probably be buying more silver soon if it continues to go down I'd not go because I mean I will buy more gold if and when it goes down the gold is near its all-time high Silver's down a lot from its all-time high and if not I would just quickly tell you and you may know this I learned about Silver from the Indians I mean you've been buying lots and lots of silver for decades you've taught me anyway you taught the world about silver and gold but especially silver all right well on that beautiful note thank you so much for your time Jim and that's all for now for Tuesday log on to 80 markets live stream for more investment and training ideas thank you so much for your time checking it's my pleasure I'm a big big fan I remember the first time I ever read the economic times I've been a huge fan ever since keep up the good work thank you thank you so much foreign thank you
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