저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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글로벌 부채가 역사상 최고 수준이며 미국의 이자 비용(연 약 1조 달러)과 향후 1년간 9조 달러 이상의 차환 부담으로 국채 수급 불균형이 생긴다고 주장. 미국 재정적자를 GDP 7.5%에서 3%로 낮춰야 하며, 3년 내 금리 상승·통화 가치 하락 등 위기 가능성을 경고. 정치적 불안과 지정학적 갈등이 겹칠 위험도 언급.
다듬은 글
and we now have a debt issue a big debt issue globally that is very important about a trillion dollars a year now goes to pay interest rates and over the next year we're going to have over $9 trillion of debt that we have to pay back and roll forward hopefully so there's a supply demand issue with this debt we're in that situation it is so critical in terms of the supply and demand when I calculate the supply and demand over the next year and three years we have an immediate issue there's an issue of debt is money money is debt you have to take sharp pencils and you also have to think what are you going to break along the way you because you you don't want to break too many things along the way but you've got to do it fast so um so how much is Cost Cuts how much is interest rates if you want to do it I would say then recognize that you're responsible for the consequences and if you don't pull this off and there's a problem that you own it because if you have that problem that debt problem you you exacerbate the great conflict that's going to happen and create political instability it's a geopolitical problem a debt situation at the same time as there are conflicts internationally geopolitical Ray Delio thank you for doing this so you've run you know the biggest biggest hedge fund uh in the world for a long time and in order to do that you've had to kind of think about the rest of the world in a systematic way and in doing that you've developed this framework for understanding what's happening now what's going to happen and I'm wondering if you could just sort of set the stage with that the five trends that you look at in order to think about what's going to happen yeah I as a global macro investor for like 50 years um I found that some of the times I was surprised was because of things that happened that didn't happen my lifetime before so I needed to go back and study history um and in studying that history that helped me a lot and there are five major forces that operate in a big cycle and those together they operate in that big cycle and those five forces are first there is the money debt markets economy force and we now have a debt issue a big debt issue globally that is very important that's a force that Financial Force the second force is the internal order and disorder force that goes in a cycle in which there is then greater and greater gaps and conflict between the left and the right and populism that forces a great conflict like a Civil War which I believe we are in a form of Civil War now that's going on within countries the third is the great world power conflict that when a great power um runs the world order and then there's a rising power that challenges that you have a great power conflict us China number four is throughout history is uh acts of nature droughts floods and pandemics have killed more people than Wars and have toppled more Waters than anything else and now we have climate and the of nature which are a big force and the fifth big force all through man's history is man's inventiveness particularly of Technologies and that everything that we talk about everything that we are looking at falls under one of those and they move in a largely cyclical way and that is the framework that we now are living out so you just laid the basis for the world's most interesting six-hour conversation um but since we have amazing since we have uh 17 minutes I want to zero in on on one and before I do let me say it feels like we're at the tail end of a cycle or the beginning of a new cycle yes you that's fair to say yes the the famous 8year cycle so this is obviously a pivot point um if we could just start with the first debt can you give us a scale a sense of the scale of global debt right now um it's it it's now unprecedent Ed um in in in all of history and I want to just explain that how it works there's a supply demand situation um the way the debt Cycle Works is think of um credit um and our credit system as being like a circulatory system that credit brings buying power brings nutrients to all of the system but that credit um that we buy things with we buy Financial assets we buy goods and services with creates debt and that debt accumulates like plaque in a system that begins to um have a problem because it starts to squeeze out spending for example the US budget about a trillion dollars a year now goes to pay interest rates and over the next year we're going to have over $9 trillion of debt that we have to pay back and roll forward hopefully so there's a supply demand issue with this debt one man's debts are another man's assets and if those assets do not provide an adequate return or they feel that there is risk in those assets there's not enough demand for that debt there is a problem and that problem is that interest rates then start to rise and the those holders of the debt begin to realize there's a debt problem and worse on this Supply demand is that they have to sell the debt imagine if you thought your assets are not good you're going to want to sell those assets and that creates this terrible Supply demand balance that produces a a a great conflict now the central bank can either uh let that happen interest rates rise asset goes down economies suffer or they come in and they print a lot of money at the end of the day they print a lot of money and as a result you have um uh a monetary inflation type of situation that's the situation we're in we're in that situation it is so critical in terms of the supply and demand when I calculate the supply and demand over the next year and three years we have an immediate issue in the next three years yes can you be more more specific about what that issue is like what what does that look like if not addressed in the next three years um it looks like the holders of the debt and the buyers of the debt will not buy enough to meet the supply and as a result interest rates will rise as those interest rates rise that has an effect of course on the economy and so on but it begins a um a a begins you know real problems particularly when asset prices asset prices are now fairly expensive and so you have that Dynamic taking place the central bank then is put into a position does it print money and buy that shortfall and and when that does that then there is the depreciation of the value of money that produces a monetary inflation in any case there is a movement from um this Treasury Market uh it's which is the backbone of our whole financial system to be uh there is a trauma in that and then that affects all markets and then it it money as a stor hold of wealth as we know it is is in Jeopardy is not in jeopardy it's depreciated so there's an issue of debt is money money is debt and if you're holding if you have a supply demand problem yes and it's not good to hold that asset you're going to have the selling of that asset you're going to have that kind of spiral and we need to do this okay I just it's alert but the the existing I I'll speak of the United States but a number of countries face this issue uh the United States will run a deficit of about 7 and a half% of GDP if the Trump tax cuts are continued which I expect um and that deficit needs to be cut to 3% GDP must be cut to 3% of GDP all policy makers and the President should have a pledge to get it to 3% of GDP because otherwise we're likely to have a problem and uh it and that has been that can be done sure but I mean you're talking about a pretty compressed timeline I think most Americans are thinking this is in the distant future you're saying it's imminent if it's not addressed it looks like the way I pencil these numbers out it looks like it's a three-year type of timeline and and and you also have to do the adjustment the cutbacks and and that make that adjustment um you have to do it uh when things are relatively good and you have to do it promptly because otherwise the debt accumulates and the debt problem gets worse it's like if it's like if I'm speaking with you about your you know your heart I'm a doctor and I'm talking with you and I'm saying okay Tucker you have have this situation okay the plaque is there uh you're in a high risk of this heart attack essentially and now what are you going to do about it here are the things maybe it's exercise maybe it's this and that but in one way or another you've got to do this now because you're in better health now don't wait for this to happen and then try to make it better what's striking about your diagnosis though is when I hear that I'm thinking well in my 80s I will address this you're saying I do it by summer vacation or I die so well we have a new Administration in the United States um and they are setting about very famously over the last 3 weeks cutting a lot of wasteful spending the Doge project under Elon appears have the full support of the of the president if you if they were sitting here what would you say that they need to do within the next year to address the crisis you think is right around the corner there are many ways to get the number down to 3% 3% of GDP so you've got to have and there's a lot of politics about that well yeah um and um but everybody um should say whatever way you get there you've got to get there okay so now the question is um are the Cost Cuts going to actually be able to produce that you have to take sharp pencils and you also have to think what are you going to break along the way you because you you don't want to break too many things along the way but you've got to do it fast so um so how much is cost cut how much is interest rates interest rates are an important influence on the debt because they we're paying so much in interest rates so how do you affect the interest rates if you do this you'll imp improve the supply demand picture and you'll have lower interest rates will which will contribute so I think you have to say um you have to deliver how much can you deliver from each of those things without breaking too many things that are going to be problematic and we can go down if I was then having that conversation you can go back the items don't let the ideological aspects of this be so much that you don't achieve the goal so can you give us a couple of examp I mean I I think the idea which some say is a fantasy is that you could get to 3% through cutting discretionary spending wasteful nonsense Etc but I it doesn't sound like that's correct you know that I I don't see it yes okay but it gets down to the particulars you it if you can go through and say I'm not going to unacceptably break these things and I'm going to achieve those things and that's the case great and then there is TR truth in the fact that uh new technologies are going to bring about efficiency yes and if if quick enough we make uh increases in income and increas inrees in productivity there are benefits to be had from those things too okay but there is an unknown factor there and it looks to me like each one of those having enough effect in a quick enough period of time uh is unlikely or you know or if you want to do it I would say then recognize that you're responsible for the consequences and if you don't pull this off and there's a problem that you own it having seen this in smaller countries a couple of times I always I wonder if in the United States we uh ignore the effect of these questions on stability I mean what you're really doing is rewriting the social contract when you make certain Cuts Like people expect you know the government's going to do X Y and Z for me and all of a sudden government says I'm not going to and then you get political volatility up to and including you know vience this happened in many many countries so is it scarier to you a debt the debt crisis that you described that's right on the horizon or the potential blowback from making cuts that you know the population really doesn't want I I think the question is uh how tolerable it is I think we are at this big risk thing and a lot of decisions have got to be made quick yes and so you've got to go ahead and be right and make those decisions and then you find out what's tolerable I think that probably um since achieving that must be of Paramount importance um then you do it and that's the best thing that you can do make the decision go do it get the 3% and you can do it if you think realize there are three factors there there's taxes which I say taxes not tax rates tax income which also comes from it of course from uh the fact that if if the world is earning more there will be more tax income okay so there's taxes there's spending cut the spending in various ways cut it down as far as you can that becomes tolerable and then there's interest rates and if you do the first two you will have lower interest rates this happened this magnitude of change which is uh roughly a four to 5% change in GDP a fiscal tightening of four or five% in GDP happened between 19 uh 92 and 1998 that right so it's it's been doable if you get that mix right you don't create too much shock in any one of those it's achievable but it has to be done now so not I mean not to blame anyone or look backward or anything but is his when historians assess like the hundred-year period that we're living through right now how important will they wait the dramatic drop in in interest rates the price of money after the financial crisis we had this like long period where money was super cheap are the problems that we're dealing with now the direct result of that do you think yeah uh there were T there were two big surges well let me say since 1944 there was a healthy period where um debt taken on produced enough income to service the debt right that's good that's healthy that's not a problem every benefits from that then we got into a period of time through these various cycles that more debt got taken on than incomes and so when you have you need income to service the debt and so that Rose for a long time and the crescendo of that took place in the two big fiscal stimulations that took place first in the covid and second in what was a big transfer of wealth to for where the government borrowed a lot of money send out checks and then we had the rise in inflation oh surprised you send out all these checks you weren't surprised of course not you send out every all this money to everybody what are you going to the treasury secretary seem completely shocked by it like really I mean it's basic okay so um okay now we are where we are in that SP and that's not just the US okay that's the world okay so what I'm talking about is that it's a world problem it's a uh uh China problem it's a Europe problem this it's a world debt problem but I I go want to go I want to go back to my oo5 that means it's an internal political problem okay because if you have that problem that Deb problem you you exacerbate the great conflict that's going to happen you create political instability it's a geopolitical problem a debt situation at the same time as there are conflicts internationally geopolitical
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