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let's talk expectations for the Trump versus Biden presidential debate tonight it is the first and likely 50% that is it represents 50% of all the presidential debates we'll get in the cycle which worth noting between 2000 and 2016 we usually had three debates in each presidential uh election cycle we only got two in 2020 we're only getting two now in 2024 so 50% of our presidential debate today in this cycle so expectations uh look I I I I'm just going to be blunt about this I I think Democrats are just hoping that Joe Biden doesn't have an oopsy doopsy Mitch McConnell glitch glitch McConnell means bad news for Democrats and Biden I think Republicans are kind of hoping that Biden Has a Glitch because it would be the easiest slam dunk for Donald Trump now obviously 80% of the country won't actually change their mind from these debates 80% of the country is already decided 40% of you watching this right now are like I don't give a crap about B I'm voting for whichever side it is and that's okay but what matters here is the middle the middle is what is going to swing the Electoral College remember it's not the popular vote that matters it's the Electoral College so what's going to swing the swing States it's these debates it's the economy going into the election look the election still like like 131 days away which is crazy that we're having a debate this early anyway usually you don't have debates before September and usually you have a nonpartisan Presidential Election Commission that oversees the debates and thebat schedule and the debate moderators because of exactly this you don't want CNN being able to control the mute button CNN kicking out uh all in studio audience CNN preventing any reporters from being inside the facility uh CNN for pre pre from preventing uh well CNN is preventing smaller YouTube channels and independent media from commenting on the debate during the the debate stream there's there's a lot here that's weird that CNN is doing the whole mic mute thing is a lot of power right we haven't seen this before uh and it's all in CNN's hands so there is a lot of concern that the debate we're going to get is going to be rigged in favor of Biden obviously CNN's a left leading Channel now others are saying well CNN's going to try to counterbalance that and maybe lean more nicely towards Donald Trump but I doubt that in fact I think there's a possibility that this whole mic mute thing is going to piss Donald Trump off so much that he might walk out of the debate he could just get up and walk out uh and that would really be bad for America because it would send a signal that America has gotten so divided that not only do we have trouble trusting elections but now we can't even trust the debate process anymore so this whole thing CNN is doing I think is unamerican and undemocratic and they should be sued that's right we filed a lawsuit against them last night at 2: in the morning because screw them uh they're silencing smaller creators and so I tweeted about this I made a video on the channel about it I'm not going to rehash all of it you could retweet it if you want to help out but we filed a lawsuit against them and uh we're right now finishing writing our temporary restraining order so we can get uh hopefully an emergency injunction hearing today so uh that's what we're working on well that's what my attorney is working on I'm wearing a bread bro jacket because I'm tired and this is comfortable but so expectations here okay so notice so far I haven't talked policy at all I've talked about how the debate is going to be divisive because of how the de baate is going to be put on CNN has a lot of power and people are going to think this is going to be rigged in Biden's favor especially with that mic muting technology I think if there's a point where Donald Trump gets frustrated it's not going to be towards the end it won't be like the last 10% of the debate because then that'll make it seem like he's just walking out to make a point I think like the max walk out point is about 60% into the debate and then he'll GTFO if he feels like the like he's not able to finish his thoughts or he feels like you know he's getting hard balls and Biden's getting soft balls I don't know I hope that doesn't happen because again it's just going to leave a bad taste in everyone's mouth and it's going to create more frustration now when it comes to actual policy let's be Crystal Clear Biden is trying to lick the wounds and and and that's that's okay because that's what you kind of have to do when you're the incumbent everybody kind of like when you're the incumbent everybody looks at like the bad right and then they compare it to an Era of of stimulus and stock market uh in insanity and and you know uh fear but then v-shaped recovery in the economy like oh this is hell oh this is wonderful you know like we went through an most emotional roller coaster but it was a quick roller coaster it was a v it was of Larry cudow v-shaped recovery uh now obviously that was heavily due to massive money Printing and support not only from the government but also the Federal Reserve but what's most important is how people feel today and unfortunately people have kind of felt not great since about November of 21 which was peak of the market you had a lot of fear and uncertainty January of 2022 some YouTubers made like the economy is about to crash like the Titanic videos that was me uh and and the market tanked basically throughout all of 2022 chips went into recession Autos went into recessions uh into recession interest rate sensitives went into a recession cyclicals Commodities everything layoffs like 22 was bad and then 23 was good for certain sectors like Ai and and and the chip segment uh but not everything's doing great so in fact the lower-end American that is lower income middle income grocery prices are still high housing is impossible to afford uh student loan debt is extremely expensive anybody with a variable rate loan is pissed anybody in commercial real estate is pissed you know and and and people who are outside of the Magnificent Six stocks uh you know mag 7us 10 they're also pissed you know the equal weighted S&P 500's not doing very well it's actually in a pretty bad place it's the S&P 500 is only up because of those top six so it's crazy it's absolutely crazy so uh and the problem with it is we are now sitting at basically uh a year and a half actually more no we're sitting at about 2 and a half years of pain 22 23 and A2 we're sitting at 2 and 1/2 years of pain if people are still feeling this pain by November of 2024 election time you're going to be at 3 years of pain and I'll tell you the thing that makes pain substantially worse is time so like you have pain for a little bit like March in covid and then everything v-shaped recoveries you're assuming you didn't get the illness okay great like cool that was weird okay we can get through this 3 years of now the side effect effects of that inflation whatever else it's a big deal now I you know I'm not here to take sides I'm just simply to talk about my predictions I think that a lot of people are going to vote based on what I just described and so I do think that Donald Trump has an edge at this point he might even have a substantial Edge at this point like 6535 that's my take okay we can look at real clear politics and look at all the different polls but you know I I I also question polls I'm not the biggest fan of that uh but you know we'll look at them but that's just my opinion right now now if if inflation goes to zero we start cutting rates like crazy it'll look political uh and and and people feel like things are getting better and we're going to avoid a recession by November great maybe economically Biden's going to have a shot but right now it feels like things are going the opposite direction that is more cracks or forming in the economy and it's taking longer for the Federal Reserve to actually bring us some interest rate relief now they have their own reasons for that we don't have to make this an economic video I talk about that enough now uh if the economy does continue to crack and go towards the direction of a recession it it's probably from an economic point of view going to be almost certain that Donald Trump is going to win okay now we can think about things like you know Israel the border Russia but I don't know that these are going to be the things that people are going to vote on as much as the economy the next thing I think people are going to vote on more is is going to be abortion but Donald Trump has actually taken a stance that you know shouldn't be seen as that horrible for women uh now this I know is very very touchy so I'm going to be careful about this but I'm just going to be clear okay my wife she's like oh my God Donald Trump is going to take abortion rights away from women I'm like no he's not he's made it very clear no Nationwide ban uh leave it up to the stat and I'm like you think California is going to take away abortion rights I mean like we're personally not really into I mean we got seven kids okay I'm just saying like she's thinking from a woman point of view uh and she's like oh my gosh women's rights Trump's going to ruin all I'm like I I mean that I don't think so you know I get it installing more conservative justices led to the loss of Ro roie Wade but that didn't ban abortion that just moved it back to the States and you know you even have the Supreme Court of softening uh by now forcing for example Idaho to enable uh emergency abortions and Donald Trump's made his position pretty clear his position is very clear that look uh he believes in abortions uh for life of mother rape incest uh and and obviously you you know um some form of uh and this is what he argues is up to the states some form of limit at some uh age now Donald Trump uh does do the typical Republican thing which is oh the Democrats will kill your babies at 40 weeks no no they don't no no no no that's that's not fair okay it's just not fair California and New York are some of the most liberal and you're generally at fetal viability which would put you between 22 to 24 weeks now that is late but you know there's a difference between saying okay 15 week abortion ban and you know California Tops off at let's say fetal heartbeat so 22 weeks let's say okay that's a 7we difference that's different than saying oh you know we want to stop abortions in 15 weeks the Democrats will go to 40 okay that's 25 weeks of it that's like 3 and a half X that's not what's happening of course unless there's a situation in the life of a mother where like you know if the child is going to die anyway and and keeping the child inside could kill the mother right before uh term well Most states enable saving the life of the mother that's way it is so I actually think abortion is going to be a big issue mostly though because I don't think people realize that the the candidates they don't actually really want to be involved in the abortion topic it's kind of like let the states decide and so they just sort of backpedal away from this of course that'll be Trump's POV it'll be easier for Biden just go you know write the choice because that's what the Democratic position will be but so I try to lay that because that I don't think that's that's really as big of an issue this idea that oh Trump's going to ruin all women's rights I I don't see that so but I I think econ economy is number one issue number two is abortion again I I don't think it should be number two but it is mostly because I I don't think there's that much Delta between what you get uh I do think the Border uh and obviously geopolitics are substantial issue and so uh Biden actually implemented uh Donald Trump uh executive order for limiting uh the uh level of Asylum Seekers that are accepted at the border to now 1500 which basically because we're well over 4,500 per day uh up to that executive order we're basically limited we're done can't take any more asy Asylum Seekers but that doesn't mean people can't still come in illegally and keep in mind there's also this like politically motivated benefit to immigrants coming in legal or not because they contribute to uh employment numbers they lower wages uh because they'll compete for less and that could lower inflation uh they're you know it it it makes the economy look stronger uh immigrants whether illegal or not even though they receive a bunch of social benefits their uh effect their multiplier on GDP is net positive to the country I personally ran for governor under the premise of we should have very stringent legal immigration and I'm a believer that laws should be followed crime is obviously a big issue especially in places like California Oregon whatever New York's having issues you know the bail bail reform was a disaster in New York uh anyway um there but but the Border will be an issue uh I think Biden's going to use his use of the Trump executive order as a way to try to get uh some street cred here but Trump's going to take credit for it and it was a trump style executive order after all it was modeled after the same verbage that Trump used uh there was just sort of an on andof switch that was edited in for Joe Biden since a lot of courts were trying to shut Trump down on that uh okay so economics abortion border uh then we're going to get into like crime and geopolitics I think are going to be relatively balanced uh obviously we need better education we need mental health uh support we need a deal with you know homelessness and better schooling like better jobs like this is all very important you know obviously there'll be some like pitter patter about electric vehicles and American choice and made by American workers and tariffs on China and that kind of stuff but I think more important than those things will be crime that one's pretty straightforward I think we all want laws to be enforced I was one of the first as uh a gubernatorial candidate in California to say this defund the Stu police is like we need to fully fund the police and train them better and give them more resources not less so um anyway then uh then geopolitics obviously uh it is you know it's it's helpful that Donald Trump can say hey uh I didn't have a war with Israel Russia or potentially Taiwan uh you know there was no uh Hamas taking hostages there were no houthis shooting rockets at our container ships there was no uh you know uh Putin uh lobbing Rockets onto the capital of uh of Ukraine we didn't have that so this is going to be a very easy sort of defense that Donald Trump will be able to use if Biden tries to attack him uh or Trump will just bring it up himself that's obviously pretty straightforward uh Biden would have to take a harder route here and try to go with a well you planted the seeds for this you know had you not reduced you know uh uh funding for NATO let's say uh maybe this wouldn't have happened which of course Donald Trump will then respond to that and say what are you talking about I just forc them to pay their fair share otherwise they're going to threaten to kick him out which is just sort of like the type of negotiator you have you the sort of the hard ball like yo like we're America like you you either listen or or we're not participating and then you have sort of the more consolatory approach you know both both Styles work in their own ways so uh yeah I think ultimately unfortunately this is this is a very tough election for an incumbent I think Biden's in a really tough place like I I try to put myself in that position I when I say unfortunately it sort of implies that like I'm trying to pick a side that's not it I'm not editing this video I'm just speaking freely here I say that like because I think of myself if I was going to be in Biden's shoes I'd be like oh oh this is not what I want to go into a re-election campaign with uh you know interestingly you know Trump had had a lot of things going for him with this idea of like hey the economy is doing really well you know in the 2020 uh uh election like we're about to get covid vaccines although the covid vaccines were announced like right after the election who knows a lot of people say that was rigged on purpose it was like three or four days after the election oh all of a sudden we have the covid vaccine I was like okay uh but um but yeah it's really interesting that uh if you try to put yourself in the shoes right now of a candidate it's really easy to bag on the current the question though is not so much about the past it's about the future it's like what's each candidate's vision for the future if this is just like a pitter patter about the past it's going to be kind of like as expected of a debate but the big the big concern to me is you know what are their suggestions going to be for the future and so I think that's what everybody should be voting on but frankly I think it's the last thing people are going to be be voting for it's it's going to be very emotional based on what has been so anyway uh these are some of my thoughts uh hopefully you find this perspective useful I will do my best to live stream this I will certainly be live streaming uh my commentary on X and on Twitch but I will also try to go live on YouTube though you never know it's possible they could try to uh take me down anyway we'll see what happens thank you so very much for being here I appreciate your support and uh we'll see you all soon thank come
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