저자: Kevin · 외국인
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폭스바겐의 리비안 투자는 리비안 자금난과 기존 완성차의 테슬라 공포를 보여준다는 주장. 리비안은 분기 15억 달러 현금소진으로 생존이 불투명하지만 테슬라는 마진 개선과 로보택시·옵티머스·FSD 등으로 우위가 커질 것으로 봄. 금리 인하 시 테슬라 주가가 폭등할 수 있다고 주장. 테슬라 콜옵션 매수를 공개했으며 200달러 매도벽 소화 후 220달러까지 갈 수 있다고 봄. 엔비디아 매도 후 테슬라 매수하는 페어트레이드 선호.
다듬은 글
I'm loading the boat with Tesla calls yes even after it's up 4% on the day now this could be a very terrible idea but I'm going to explain why the rivan deal yes so rivan got an investment from Volkswagen and rivan is a competitor to Tesla so why would I not just invest in rivan why would I make this investment into Tesla and why would I do that using call options if I believe this is such a big deal for Tesla but the deal has to do with rivan what's going on so let's break this down number one rivan would go bankrupt without a cash inflow here's just the reality they burned $1.5 billion dollar last quarter with the cash they had available they'd essentially be bankrupt by the end of the year their cash burn is way too high they don't know how to get some of their cost down as they're scaling production they need both expertise help and they need both money help and guess what just happened they got both of those things Volkswagen the German automotive company they're agreeing to invest up to5 Billion into rivan that'll extend their ability to survive until 2026 now right now they're only investing a bill probably because rivan frankly needed a bill uh because again they probably can't pay their bills remember their burning $1.5 billion a quarter so a billion probably is like oh okay we can survive we can pay some bills more that's great but it's still a sinking ship so why is Volkswagen coming to rivan's rescue it's because they're the only other option we're out of competitors in America to Tesla it's Tesla and then it's everyone else who loses money on electric vehicles now let's be real yes there is competition in China in the electric vehicle Market there's a lot of competition in China China is killing it they are cranking out EVs and as battery costs come down margins are coming up at the EV manufacturers it's actually a great thing the good thing though in America and in the west is we're not really competing with China because everybody has sanctions against China and nobody wants Chinese cars at this point I'm wholly convinced that if we didn't have sanctions against against China and import restrictions against China we'd all be driving Chinese cars they're they're good and they're quite frankly a lot cheaper that would be good for the consumer but let's be real politicians don't really do things that are good for the people they kind of do things that look good for the people and get votes and then end up having the opposite effect it's it's a disaster politics sucks but I want you to think about this for a moment an investment by Volkswagen into the only competition to Tesla is a way of saying that Legacy auto including even Amazon who's invested in rivan uh and Volkswagen are woefully afraid of what Tesla can do and this is happening at the same time as sentiment for Tesla is in the pooper Donald Trump has helped with that let me be clear about that Donald Trump has helped push Tesla into the pooper because pretty much every single time you see Donald Trump talk he rants about how terrible electric vehicles are and how bad the range is and he actually says things that aren't fully true about electric vehicles but they were true years ago so he's kind of taking like a 2020 2016 mentality and applying it to 2024 and it's popular because you know people people who are who lean right are maybe more likely to be into you know real big trucks and and gas guzzlers and that that's not to say that's a bad thing quite frankly you put the Cyber truck next to a real truck the Cyber truck is like a tiny little baby it's teeny compared to a real truck like if I really wanted like you know a nice bed I can actually put drywall in and plywood in and I can actually use for work the cybertruck's probably just too dang small which is unfortunate because my initial impression of the cybertruck was it was going to be a big old beefy car you know we're going to have that six seed in the front which we didn't get but that's okay the cybertruck doesn't matter here this investment by Volkswagen into to rivan screams that Legacy auto cannot alone figure out how to survive in a world of electric vehicles so they have to partner with the only brand that stands against or holds a candle to Tesla in terms of quality a vehicle and desirability people actually do like rivan you could charge them on the Tesla infrastructure they're beautiful cars there's a lot of money that goes into them one of the reasons they're not profitable is because they make the cars so darn nice so it's kind of like you're getting a wedge deal of vehicle like in other words they've over improved so you're getting a good deal in it if you don't know the concept of wedge deals or quite frankly my you know alerts on how to make money or whatever you should join the courses on building your wealth over at meetkevin.com we'v you could always email us at staff mein.com but let's be real Volkswagen's investment s extends rivan survivability into 2026 which is when many would hope that quite frankly interest rates will be lower and cars will be able to sell more rapidly but that's when you're going to be likely in the midst of this EV transition where Legacy Autos are going to go crap we can't really figure this EV transition out uh you know hopefully our bets are paying off on on on rivan or the other Partnerships that we have because otherwise we may go bankrupt it's kind of like Volkswagen is dropping a call option on rivan and we're like okay okay okay if we go BK cuz EVS take over then rivan will probably be killing it at that point and at least that money will help us survive uh but this this is a screaming uh uh shouting announcement from institutional Auto that they are afraid of Tesla that they are afraid that Tesla's margins as battery prices come down are going to continue to rise and that Tesla once interest rates comes come down even more will be so hands down easily stronger than all of Legacy auto combined that once we get out of this rough period of time for Tesla and the interest rate sensitive sector the stock could explode now I personally think some of that is going to get priced in between now and the robo taxi event Robo taxi event is 88 no guarantees don't suum me bro you could lose money buying YOLO call options on Tesla I don't recommend it I'm I'm none of this is designed to be personalized advice I just personally think that Institute are going to wake up over the next few days and go hm let's look at rivan's financials oh God that's a fire pit why is Volkswagen investing in a fire pit because Tesla's winning yeah it's a big deal I asked Kathy what about this I go what what you know uh why is Donald Trump so anti- EV and then she's like why do you think Donald or um Elon Musk is trying to start cozying up to Donald Trump got to convert that around she also thinks that Dojo I can't wait to show the interview but Dojo is actually way bigger than we think it is and that Elon downplays Dojo because he wanted to get his Nvidia chips he didn't want to poooo Nvidia now he's got his Nvidia chips sending him to his other businesses he's got what he needs pushes out fsd2 now he can go all in on dojo again that was a smart observation I don't know I want to hear what everybody else thinks about that but personally I I I don't know I like I'm getting a little excited about Tesla over the next few days and and maybe maybe I'm just making a mistake here you know maybe I shouldn't be buying this thing when it's already up a bit today but uh yeah I think once we clean that order book out right at $200 you're going to 220 again could be wrong but the reason I believe that is at 200 you're probably going to have some sell orders although I think most people who have already sold or Tesla or already out of Tesla or wanted to sell Tesla already out of Tesla that we've this is why we keep kind of like slowly climbing up here I think there could be some selling pressure at the $200 level uh in the order book for Tesla but I think after after the sell pressure at 200 is gone you know 201 199 whatever wherever people put their sell orders in once those get cleared out I don't know man I don't know I don't know I don't know don't don't sue me bro uh I could also just blow up my trading account and lose lots of money but but I'm just putting my money where my mouth is uh and we're going to see see over the next few days if institutions are like yeah we see what's going on here in the industry by Tesla they might also buy both they could buy rivan and Tesla the problem is you're still buying a sinking ship at rivan so I'd rather like take money out of Nvidia for example and throw more onto Tesla so like if I had a pair trade this I'd be long Apple Tesla short Nvidia and then I'm not opposed to long rivan but I'm not like super jazzed about it mostly because I think you know it it is still a massively money losing company and there'll be a lot of dilution whereas Tesla you know if rivian's going to win Tesla's also going to win and by default Tesla already is winning and it's likely going to have substantially better margins and other verticals you know we don't even talk about Optimus and FSD and all the other stuff so my thesis check out the programs link Down Below on building your wealth we had a really really good options lecture this morning that we did we talked for like an hour on educating folks on intro options and and uh you know strategies for options so hopefully you enjoy those all right we'll see you soon
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