저자: JohnJohnston · 외국인
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나스닥은 약세장 진입, S&P500은 근접, 러셀2000도 약세장 구간이며 제레미 그랜섬의 버블 붕괴·경기침체 경고가 현재 상황과 맞아떨어진다는 진단. 시장 현황: 나스닥 고점 대비 -29.1%, S&P500 -18.9%, 러셀2000 약세장 구간. 애플 하락 등 혼조 장세이며 러셀2000이 먼저 반등한 점을 긍정적으로 평가. 약세장 신호: 제프 드그라프(르네상스 매크로 리서치)는 하락 추세가 약 6주 지속됐고 S&P500 3500~3600이 최소 바닥 구간이라 봄. 애플·월마트 등 안전자산 성격 종목까지 매도되는 '숨을 곳 없는' 국면은 약세장 말기 신호로 해석. 밸류에이션: ARK 자료 기준 상위 25개 보유종목의 중간 주가매출비율(PSR)이 2021년 3월 36.1배에서 6.3배로 하락, 코로나 저점 아래. 과거 30배 이상을 정당화하던 논리는 버블이었다는 주장. 그랜섬 견해: 1929·2000·일본·주택버블 등 '진짜 큰 버블' 전문가로서 버블 붕괴 후에는 빠르게 경기침체가 온다고 경고. 이익률은 정점에서 크게 줄어들 여지가 있다고 봄. 장기적으로는 1970년대식 스태그플레이션 가능성 언급(인플레이션 지속, 성장률 둔화, 공급망 취약). 개별 종목: 테슬라는 자동차 매출 90%+ 집중, 경기순환성·원자재 가격 부담 등을 들어 고집중 포트폴리오에 위험하다고 진행자가 우려. 테슬라 고점 대비 약 43% 하락 언급. 아마존·페이스북·넷플릭스도 2년간 부진. 바닥 시점: 진행자는 예측 불가로 보며 추가 하락 또는 반등 모두 가능하다고 결론.
다듬은 글
hey jj here with the added value so today i'm going to talk about uh going back to some market commentary and also to talk about bubbles in particular bubbles and this this nasdaq bear market that we're in an s p uh s p 500 not quite at a bear market russell 2000 in the bear market so let's have a look at the heat map for today the apple was down 2.46 which was uh you know pulled things down a little bit but it's a mixed bag if you're on spotify video or youtube you can see this uh heat map here so a bit of a mixed bag today and same with the the indices the s p 500 down 5.58 the dow down is 0.75 so those are sort of not catching up to the nasdaq but they're having you know we're talking about the generals being shot it's a war term being shot last what you know eventually they come for the general so the nasdaq was down 0.2 not as much and the russell 2000 actually managed to manage the game which is the second time this week that's happened where the others have been down and the russell been up which is what i like to see got some small cap stocks and uh you know russell 2000 is the first to go down first to go up it has historically i think been like that can't confirm that but i think that's the way sometimes it goes in this kind of environment anyway so this headline for the from today from bloomberg question of the day where does the stock drop stop that's a bit hard to say but um i will look at the video and the answer to that question in a minute but the indices from all time highs the the nasdaq down now 29 29.1 percent so firmly in bear market territory uh the s p 500 down 18.9 not quite their market technically at 20 but nearly there now and russell 2000 down and firmly in bear market territory as well so let me have a look at this video what this guy says about when will the stock markets drop when when will the stock drop stop and so this guy uh i don't know who he is actually but let's see what he has to say that we do shows that we are in a downtrend so you talked about the bear market um and i know that there's a 20 qualification for that but most of the characteristics that we look at have have suggested that we've been in a bear market for about six weeks now and i think we're going to continue to see that i think one of the things that should be important is seeing the market start to discount this peak inflation idea and getting through peak inflation and if you look at the performance of energy you look at the performance of of yields up until about a week ago certainly we weren't there yet but i think that's going to continue we think that the market trades somewhere between 3 500 and 3 600 as a minimum to get us into that zone the good news is and there is some good news is that you started to get into a situation where there's nowhere to run there's nowhere to hide they took out apple last week they took out some of the staple names here this week obviously walmart which is a safe haven type of name you know who doesn't go to walmart regardless of the of the economic conditions and so once you start doing that you start getting into the very end of these bear markets historically and i think that's that's good news that we can we can point to today all right so that's what he said it's he's basically saying the generals are getting shot where they took out apple last week walmart target target went down like 20 more than 20 percent uh this is actually he's a he's jeff degraff from renaissance macro research that's who he is and so yeah interesting to say that he he's you know doesn't know when it'll stop but you know it's at that time when they start shooting the generals and so let's get on to uh what else i want to talk about which is uh jeremy grantham but also this uh this graph on the screen now is from arc innovation again arc uh which shows the graph that the median price to sales ratio of the top 25 holdings back at the peak in march 2021 was 30 over 36 36.1 and now it's 6.3 which is below the covert lows and goes way back so you know what's the people kept telling me 30 uh price ratio of 30 over 30 was fine over 35 fine no problem these companies are growing like growing like weeds they're fine and now we're back to 6.5 so was it fine was it fun to buy there in particular no it was not it was that was pretty much this is a bubble with a classic bubble and kathy would keep saying that's not wasn't a bubble it's not a bubble but yeah it was i'm saying it and so back to jeremy grantham jeremy grantham has been very bearish he's known as a sort of perma bear but i don't think that's right because he picked he sort of i did this i did if you go back to one of my episodes um investing with her when terrified when he wrote a thing right at the bottom of the 2000 and 2009 uh stock market and said it's time to get back in and start to invest investing winter that although it's terrifying do it now so he's saying jeremy grantham is sticking this is headlines jeremy grantham is sticking with his call that the stock market is in a bubble akin to 2 000.
grantham city expects to say sp 500 to 4 at least 40 from his peak in a cnbc interview we should be in some sort of recession pretty quickly also he says there's a recession coming and he also said ma well we'll look at the video and see what he says because it's uh it is interesting i think to see what his in his own words what does he what is he saying called a really great bubble okay he is going to make the beginning sorry i only specialize in what i call the really great bubbles if you go back to 1929 to 2000 to japan and and the housing the housing part of the housing bubble and you ask how did conditions look profit margins looked great the forecast was great there was no chance of a recession a few months ago smart people were saying there was a 20 chance of a recession in three years i mean it is quite amazing and what happens after the bubbles break is there's always a recession pretty quickly and people never get it people never forecast it and and along with the recession comes the drop in profit margins okay so saying there that you know conditions seem pretty good right before a bubble bursts and you know especially in 2020 things people said you know as i said price ratios of 30 were fine it's all fine everything blue sky ahead what could go wrong the fed will save us and of course that did not happen and we're now in a nasdaq bear market and uh and recession on the way which a lot of people as he said didn't pick and now we're we're we're kind of in danger of recession hitting cause this bubble he's saying it's the bubble it's bursting starting with that emerging tech back in early 2021 and hitting now the generals being shot see what else he has to say going into the bubbles breaking profit margins are always at a peak bubbles don't peak for no reason they peak because economic conditions are nearly perfect and that includes low inflation and high profit and the first thing to go in a recession of course is the profit mark and um that that is very likely to happen this time we should be in a recession mild or severe is the question but we should be in some sort of recession fairly quickly and profit margins from a real peak have a long way that they can decline yep so saying profit margins of companies will decline which could be a surprise for many i was talking to somebody about tesla uh this morning uh who is somebody who's all in on tesla all in and i was saying that's kind of really i think that's really risky even super super concentrated portfolios i think norwood lou's got three so why not one or three we're ones you know get these black swan events but uh what if something what if i test it turns out being in the auto industry more than 90 percent revenue from from also what if it turns out to be cyclical even though though it's got heart of high demand could people start dropping off waiting less even if um i don't know even if that was the perception of that could we see in the profit margin maybe get squeezed raw material prices are really high i mean i could see something happening there even though everybody seems still see caesar the blue sky had the tesla i could see that happening oh so not investment advice or anything just my opinion but um you can see it's down at nearly 43 already tesla actually from the peak okay let's see what jeremy grant has to say more and if you want to get into the longer term i i think this kind of 2000 bubble that we have is dangerously likely to morph into the 1970s where inflation is always a part of the background discussion and where growth rate starts to dwindle away so you have shades of stagflation as we had in the 70s where commodities are intermittently scarce price jags here and there as we have seen recently where the whole system is so strung out and so borrowed that it's lost its resilience all you have to do is cough and covid or a war in the ukraine and you see the problems ricocheting around the system that was not designed to absorb any kind of punch last minute inventory delivery you know no reserves putting all of your business with one country far away and no flexibility no resilience and now we begin to pay the price well i hope that doesn't happen talk about a 70s style uh situation where there's high inflation that's really hard to get down goes on for a long time this the stock market does kind of fairly badly through the through the decade and we've had a decade of really uh boom boom time boom you know growth boom so we in for that i don't know i mean i hope it doesn't happen and uh but it's interesting to see jeremy grantham because he's been so far he's been right about picking the bubble he said you know from emerging tech he's but he's in his scissors most like in history of being a student of bubbles he said more than 300 bubbles he's studied uh it's most like two thousand most like the 2000 tech bubble and we are kind of seeing that playing out that way where the emerging tech got hit and then a year later nearly a year later not quite a year later we started to get some of the big checks being hit um even tesla tesla down i thought actually thought i mean i picked tesla going down along with the rest of them uh last february but it took more than a year and let's uh see what happens i don't know people you know tesla investors since they will bounce back and but we're seeing apple and a lot of the so-called safe havens being hit now amazon really hasn't done anything two years and it's down a lot too of course facebook netflix we're seeing these are being really really uh really smashed at uh now so it's going to be interesting to see what happens when when's the bottom we don't know could could go on further it could uh head back up soon just don't know impossible to predict but uh that's kind of what i want to say today so you've got catch me on twitter at the art of value and uh follow on youtube and spotify video i just want to say interestingly i'm getting many many many more people on spotify than i am on youtube kind of hard finding it hard to get traction on uh on youtube with the video so especially like and subscribe there if you want to follow on video but spotify is good too and apple of course on audio apples big too they're probably the biggest but spotify going well so that's good to see all right see you next time
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