저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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미국 국가부채가 GDP 대비 100%를 넘어 상환 불가능한 수준이며, 이자비용이 국방비를 넘어서는 등 초강대국 쇠퇴 신호가 나타난다고 주장. 관세 등 무역 갈등과 지정학적 분열로 달러 기축통화 지위가 약화되고 있으며, 중앙은행의 금 매입 증가와 함께 금·은 등 실물자산 보유를 권고. 1925년 파운드화 사례를 들어 달러 패권 쇠퇴 가능성을 강조.
다듬은 글
the Global Financial system is facing mounting pressure central banks are aggressively increasing their gold reserves the US national debt has reached staggering levels and geopolitical Rifts are deepening economic instability but what does all of this mean for investors legendary investor Jim Rogers has been sounding the alarm for years and today we'll be exploring the unfolding crisis and its potential consequences or with Jim's input well I can add and I can subtract and I know that the debt is unbelievable in the US I don't know how it's gotten so high because I think everybody can add or nearly everybody when I just these the debt numbers are so high in the US for me it's unfathomable it's impossible that we will ever pay them off and yet nobody does anything some people talk about it but they don't do more than talk about it the numbers do not work you can never pay off the debt that the US is running up and they run it up more every month yep the US debt is a big deal that even Trump and Doge can't make go away a critical shift occurred last year for the first time in history the US government allocated more funds to cover interest payments on its debt than for National Defense this trend has historically signaled the decline of global superpowers raising the questions about the future of US economic dominance now forecast suggest that US debt could exceed 160% of GDP by mid-century with $2 trillion do in annual net treasury issuance projected over the next decade and unlike par Cycles the usual buyers such as the Federal Reserve and foreign governments May no longer provide the same level of support so officially this year the US national debt is set to hit 100% of GDP a staggering leap from just 36% in 2005 but whilst the Congressional budget office projects this debt will climb to 118% of GDP by 2035 other estimates like those from Trading economics suggest we're already at 123% as of March this year with projections of 126% by next year that's right debt is growing faster than GDP and the deficit currently 1.9 trillion is fueled by mandatory spending and interest payments that already outstrip government revenues if nothing changes federal debt will smash the post World War II record by 2029 assuming no recessions because those never happen right and by 2035 annual interest payments alone will balloon to 1.8 trillion nearly double today's levels and 1.7 times the entire us defense budget so while the government paints a grim picture the reality might be even Bleaker but hey at least we're breaking records so some argue that Sovereign nations with control over their currency can simply print their way out of debt however history tells us a different story superpowers that have spent more on servicing their debt than on National Defense such as we saw with the British Empire hapsburg Spain and the Ottoman Empire eventually lost their dominance could the US be heading down the same path do I worry about it yes in a word yes as Jim says this is a worry a big big worry the deeper concern is the fragility of the Global Credit system if borign costs continue to rise and economic confidence erods it could trigger liquidity issues banking sector instability and a cascading financial crisis it's safe to say that a broader economic realignment is underway inflationary pressures remain unresolved the return of aggressive trade tarist fragile Supply chains and shifting monetary policies have left businesses uncertain about the economic Outlook however what makes this moment particularly precarious is the intensifying geopolitical realignment that we're seeing the war in Ukraine has driven a wedge between Global Powers with Western Nation reinforcing economic and Military Alliance while China and Russia deepen their cooperation economic sanctions shifting Supply chains and realignments in trade agreements are accelerating a global reset that is reshaping economic relationships meanwhile the vulnerability of the credit system is now on full display Consumer Debt is climbing bankruptcies are increasing and wage stagnation is leaving Millions on the brink of financial distress many households are relying on credit just to maintain their standard of living creating a precarious Financial landscape if the global economic order continues to fracture nations may be forced to choose between aligning with Western Le Financial systems or alternative networks spearheaded by China and Russia further exacerbating this economic volatility the greatest risk lies in the possibility of credit markets freezing up if lending slows and liquidity dries up the economic engine just grinds to a halt affecting everything from small businesses to global trade Network now I know the tariffs are not good for anybody but it doesn't matter what I know Mr Trump has it in his mind apparently that Trump tariffs will be good for him certainly good for him and maybe even good for the country so we will have more tariffs but trade Wars have never been good for anybody tariffs what a flip-flop they are turning out to be but without doubt they are here to stay and they are adding another layer of instability to the global economy the recent surge in protectionist policies from the US and those installed as a means of retaliation has shaken mark Market disrupted Supply chains and raised concerns over Rising consumer prices historically trade Wards have rarely yielded positive results yet governments continue to pursue them hoping for short-term political gains the US has imposed sweeping tariffs on key trading partners prompting retaliation across the globe never mind some serious fighting talk from the likes of China and Canada now this cycle of economic retaliation not only fuels uncertainty but also discourages investment and long-term economic planning economists warn that persistent trade barriers could accelerate de globalization pushing Nations to develop independent Supply chains and financial systems this would weaken the dominance of the US dollar as more countries seek alternative trading mechanisms Beyond Western controlled Financial networks for investors the long-term impact of tariffs means higher costs reduce corporate earnings and increased volatility in stock markets as a global economic system fractures investors will need to diversify into assets that hold intrinsic value like gold and silver central banks as we know have been making significant moves in the gold market a wave of gold shipments from London to the US suggest this potential repositioning of reserves why are they doing this well Jim doesn't buy the party line that it's all about tariffs I don't think many people are rushing out to buy gold for tariff reasons you know they can read the same newspaper you and I can and they know what's going on in the world and they also I guess some of them know I know that will be money printing again when things get tough the first thing the central banks will do is print more money while some attribute these shifts to logistical factors others believe they point to a broader shift in the Global Financial structure Rising military expenditures mounting government deficits have created an environment where gold is increasingly viewed as a safe haven institutions are stockpiling bullion as insurance against economic instability we can see from data as we've previously reported that us gold Imports have surged with Switzerland being a key supplier investors and institutions are clearly taking steps to mitigate exposure to potential currency fluctuations and systemic risks for over a century the US dollar has served as the backbone of the Global Financial system from trade tlements to Central Bank Reserves its dominance has been unparalleled however history suggests that no Reserve currency lasts forever we've had many resered currencies many International currencies throughout history no of them have survived I can remember 100 years ago the pound sterling you know there was no question in 1925 the P Sterling was it it was no number two 50 years later he was bankrupt IMF had to fly to London to bail out the British government to help them pay their bills that was a currency that at previous 50 years before had been nobody even bothered to question it it was so strong and solid and Powerful in the world's Financial system but this has happened to other currencies and I can as I say I can add I know that the numbers in the US cannot work just absolutely cannot work physically cannot work a century ago the British pound was the world's preeminent Reserve currency it was unchallenged until it wasn't a combination of War debt economic mismanagement and the rise of stronger competitors has led to its decline 50 years later the IMF had to bail out the British government and today the US is very close to finding itself in a similar predicament the cracks in the US Dollar's dominance are becoming more and more evident Nations once relying on that green back are diversifying their reserves central banks are accelerating their gold purchases with China and Russia leading the way and at the same time efforts to dollarize trade are really gaining momentum from oil transactions in Yuan to new digital payment systems that bypass us Financial infrastructure the Global Financial order is Shifting the question is not whether the US dollar will lose its dominance is how quickly the transition will unfold if confidence in the dollar erodes too rapidly markets could be thrown into chaos however a gradual decline similar to what happened with the British pound would allow for more orderly transition to a more multi-polar financial system for investors this moment demands preparation gold historically an anchor of stability during monetary transition continues to be accumulated by central banks and institutional players and those who fail to recognize these shifts risk being caught off guard people see war and money printing potential lots of money Printing and in times like that they buy gold and silver because they know all that throughout history gold and silver will protect you they always here so what's the most critical lesson here preparation is key Nations and insti tions are taking proactive steps to safeguard their financial stability whether through gold Acquisitions diversifying Reserve Holdings or developing alternative economic systems the traditional Financial system particularly the credit markets is under strain with debt burdens rising and lending becoming riskier the probability of systemic disruptions continues to grow and what do you need to do well investors must assess how best to protect their wealth in this ever revolving landscape hard assets like gold and silver have historically played a vital role during time of financial uncertainty but what do you think let us know in the comments below hit subscribe and let's keep the conversation going
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