저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
Jim Rogers는 다음 약세장이 본인 생애 최악이 될 것이며 부채 규모가 2008~2009년보다 훨씬 크다고 경고했다. 중앙은행 평가: 연준 등은 관료·학자 출신이라 시장 위기를 제대로 통제하기 어렵다고 보며, 금리 인상 시 약세장이 더 빨리 올 수 있다고 봤다. 인플레이션 지속 시 금리 급등으로 결국 약세장이 온다고 했다. 중국: 세계 최대 교역국이라 중국 소비자 문제는 전 세계에 파급되며, 최악의 약세장에선 거의 모두가 타격을 받는다고 했다. 중국 부동산 버블 축소 시도에 대해 과거 실패했으나 이번엔 성공할 것으로 봤다. 자산 평가: 채권은 역사상 가장 비싼 수준이라 버블, 부동산도 여러 나라에서 버블로 봤다. 주식은 아마존·삼성 등 일부 버블 조짐이 있으나 미국 일부 종목은 아직 하락 상태라고 했다. 가장 싼 자산군은 원자재로 보며, 은은 역대 고점 대비 약 60% 하락, 금은 덜 하락, 설탕도 약 60% 하락 상태라고 했다. 인플레이션이 지속되면 실물자산이 방어 수단이라고 했다. 금·은 전략: 1년 전과 달리 추가 매수는 하지 않았지만 보유분은 유지 중이며, 지금 산다면 금보다 은을 사겠다고 했다. 추가 매수 진입 시점은 기다리는 중이다. 공매도 조건: 연준이 금리를 3차례 인상하면 주식 공매도를 고려할 것이라고 했으며, 미러·지정학 충돌(미국-러시아·중국·이란·북한 전쟁) 시에도 공매도 가능성을 언급했다. 달러 및 통화: 달러는 역사적으로 안전자산 역할이 과장되어 있고 미국은 역사상 최대 채무국이라 보유 달러를 큰 반등 때 매도할 계획이라고 했다. 제재 등 정치적 이유로 달러 대안을 찾는 움직임이 있으며, 중국 디지털 위안 등 CBDC가 통화 경쟁에 영향을 줄 수 있다고 봤다. 장기적으로 화폐는 디지털화되며 경쟁 통화보다는 정부 통화 중심이 될 것이라고 전망했다. 리스크: 대부분 기관 부채 과다, 금리 인상, 인플레이션, 지정학 충돌이 핵심 리스크이며 약세장 시점은 특정하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
legendary investor and author of multiple books on financial markets and investing jim rogers is my guest on goldcore tv in this video where we discuss the next great bear market the decline of china and jim's top investments for weathering the storm that's coming and remember if you want to see more interviews with industry experts and thought leaders in financial markets subscribe to gold core tv and hit the notification bell now and if you want to learn more about how to buy sell and store physical gold and silver log on to goldcore.com your precious metals experts jim rogers welcome back to goldcorp tv uh i'm delighted to be here dave it's uh singapore here so it's uh going into the evening here super well it's early morning in ireland here now you've warned recently that the next bear market that we go into is going to be the worst bear market of your lifetime as somebody who's successfully invested through bull markets and bear markets more than most what is it that gives you such concern and then a follow-up question is do you think we're close to that tipping point on heading into the next bear market well in 2008 2009 we had a big bear market because of too much debt okay now washington says we're not going to have any more bear markets so you don't have to worry about it anymore so if you believe ivy league educated government employees don't listen to me because janet yellen who's the secretary of the treasury says no more bear markets i've been around longer uh about this anyway a long time and i have read about what's happened in history and we've always had bear markets and we always will have them and the debt is staggering times more than it was in 2008 2009 so the next bear market has to be the worst in my lifetime i'm not trying to scare people i'm just making a simple statement of fact like saying the next time we have a hurricane is going to be bad well the next time we have a bear market it's going to be horrific because there's so much debt when is it going to be i don't know watch gold court tv they'll tell you and um is there anything that have the federal reserve of washington have they taken their eye off the ball is there anything that they can do at this stage if they stop money printing at this stage which is highly unlikely can they avert the next significant bear market well all of those guys are bureaucrats who work for the government or academics who work for the government they can't get a real job so they get a government job uh i have only had a few central bankers in my lifetime or that i've read about in history that had a clue what was going on india had one not long ago we had one guy named volker a while back but there have been very few who ever understood what they're doing including this crowd i don't know what they're doing you ask a very interesting question they have two choices continue printing money which they might well do or stop well if they stop and they raise interest rates and cut back then the bear market will start sooner rather than later uh even despite what they say if they continue to print money yes inflation will continue to get worse and worse and worse but that too will eventually lead to a bear market because interest rates will go through the roof with inflation they've painted themselves into a corner and they've become beholden to the stock market and they're talking now about raising interest rates so there's a good chance do you believe that that might uh foreshorten the time between now and the next bear market well uh they'll raise interest rates uh at least a time or two and it'll sort of scare the markets traditionally and there's no such thing as ev it always happens this way but traditionally the markets got scared the first time or two but it really didn't count until the third time when they raised interest rates the third time then the market said i'm getting out of here uh we get scared the first time the second time but it's not until now who knows i have absolutely no idea how it's going to work this time uh but that traditionally is a way than some people thought and the greatest bear market of your lifetime do you mean in terms of duration or actually what we might see in terms of retracement in stock markets either way babe you can define it any way you want to it sounds pretty bad to me if you if what i just heard i would suspect is certainly going to be the longest in my lifetime um and that probably means the decline will be the worst in my lifetime you know always in bear markets before there are many stocks that go down 80 or 90 percent which is pretty bad if you own them uh and that and that hits a lot of people there are always some stocks that only go down 50 or 60 percent but i would suspect that the next time it's going to be really horrendous because there's so much not so much just so much debt in the world but many companies have huge debt on their balance sheets and in bear markets people notice things like that and get scared now just changing the focus slightly china has been an engine for growth for uh the last number of years for the last decade or two um we're starting to see some worrying developments coming out of china in terms of the property market there and the potential contagion for chinese and international banks also as a as a result is there are use are you bullish on china still over the next five to ten years or are you um what's your what's your view on chinese economy now well i mean if we have the worst bear market in my lifetime it doesn't matter where you are you're going to be affected by north korea even north korea will be affected uh in the worst fair market in my lifetime so everybody's going to be affected some less than others and that's always been the case uh i don't see how china can avoid it it's the largest trading country in the world and if its customers have problems they're going to have problems no matter who you are you're going to have problems if your customers have problems and in the worst bear market in my lifetime nearly everybody's going to have problems so what's the best uh way for what were you going to position yourself um to protect yourself from this development going forward well i'm not selling short yet i hope i'm smart enough to sell shorts somewhere along the line selling short as a way to protect yourself when when things go wrong i i the cheapest asset class i know right are bonds earn above bonds have never been this expensive in world history so bonds are a bubble property in many places is a bubble you mentioned china but korea new zealand lots of places you know property is in a bubble china is trying to cut back on its bubbles and they've been but unfortunately they've been trying to cut back for a while never were successful before looks like they're now successful this time around so property essentially is not something for me to buy anywhere in the world unless there's a special situation stocks are beginning to form bubbles i mean amazon goes up every day 10 cent goes up every day samsung goes up every day not all stocks are a bubble yet though they're still look at the u.s for many stocks that are still down so the only real live cheap sector that i know of is commodities i mean silver's down 60 from its all-time high gold is down gold is not going through the roof sugar is down 60 percent from its all-time high these are not bubble kind of numbers you know dave so the cheapest asset class i know are real assets and if inflation is going to continue which i presume it will because they will continue to print the only way to protect yourself historically is real assets unless you find the few stocks that do well even when the world comes to an end so you're suggesting that then as inflation continues and if we do see a correction in bond market stock markets that we're actually going to see a flow out of those and a portion of that flow or a large part of that flow might flow actually into commodities as a as a protection for for investors well often in history in investment history you had when stocks do well commodities don't and vice versa when commodities do well stocks don't not always it's not always a correlation but it is a frequent correlation that has happened in the past now you've said in relation to gold and silver last time we spoke just over a year ago you said you uh you weren't you you weren't buying any more gold and silver at that stage but you definitely weren't stunning any and you were you were keeping what you had um have you changed your position on that now uh a year later well i don't remember when we spoke but i certainly did buy more gold and silver there at one point uh i've stopped and and continued to stop i'm still waiting for another entry i'm not very good at market timing so i don't ask me when but i somewhere along the line i'm sure i'm going to buy more gold and more silver and if i were buying either today i would buy silver i mean silver is cheaper on a historic basis silver's down 60 percent from its all-time high gold is down what ten percent but i'll buy more boats somewhere along the line i hope uh but if it were today it would be more silver than gold and you said that you're not yet looking to sell to sell shorts not commodities now back to the back to the stocks what would cause you to take a short position in stock market well the simple answer would be if the federal reserve raises interest rates three times uh just because you know it's what i remember right now that didn't mean it's gonna be correct or not but if you're asking me here in january of 2022 that would be my answer but who knows between now and then many many many things can and will happen it could be something else that causes me i mean if america goes to war with russia and china and iran and north korea i probably won't be long and what's your uh what's your expectation for the u.s dollar should we see a number of interest rate hikes um three or more interest rate hikes out of the fed that could trigger um have a significant impact on stock markets how do you think that the us dollar is going to weather these developments over the next couple of years well whenever there's turmoil historically people look for a safe haven and traditionally many people think the us dollar is a safe haven historic it's not america's the largest debtor nation in world history now but people think it is so i still own u.s dollars when the u.s dollar has its last big rally my plan who knows is to sell it and then i'll have to put my money somewhere else i don't know where at the moment and i don't even know if that's how it's going to work out but you know i don't see any way that the u.s can continue to build up gigantic debts and continue as the world's reserve currency no currency has lasted more than 150 years as the world's international currency the u.s has been around a long time there are many fundamental reasons that it's going to change and political reasons you know the rural reserve currency is supposed to be neutral that you can use anybody can use it at any time but it doesn't washington doesn't play that way anymore if washington gets angry at you they put sanctions on you and you cannot use the dollar so a lot of people not me but a lot of people more important than me are saying wait a minute it's not supposed to be that way so the russians and the chinese and the brazilians and the indians and the iranians and many other people are looking now to find a competitor to the dollar and they will i don't know what yet but they will do you think that developments in china with the central bank digital coin there um adds an extra element to the chinese yuan trying to compete with the us dollar as a reserve currency well the renminbi is not convertible yet it's very hard for anything to be a competitor on the international stage if it's not convertible now they have been making it more convertible since 2005 but they're still not there yet but eventually all money is going to be on the computer everybody's working on it already in china you cannot take a taxi using money you have to have your computer money so they're ahead of the rest of us it is definitely going to be computer money as i was saying and once the money is on the computer i don't think the u.s is going to say okay this is money now but if you want to use something else you can that's not the way bureaucrats in washington think that's not the way academics think they want control and they want power so i suspect all the money i know all the money is going to be on the computer eventually i don't think it's going to be rival currencies it will be government money is what i mean understood tim it's been fantastic talking to you today you're very generous with your time and thanks for joining us on goldcore tv again all right thank you dave cheers let's do it again sometime in tv wheel thanks bye bye thanks for watching and if you enjoyed this video make sure you check out these videos one with silver guru david morgan talking about the outlook for silver for 2022.
the other one is an in-depth interview with steve saint angelo talking about the energy cliff and the impact that it's going to have on future investment portfolios and remember if you want to see more interviews with industry experts and thought leaders in financial markets subscribe to gold core tv and hit the notification bell now and if you want to learn more about how to buy sell and store physical gold and silver log on to goldcore.com your precious metals experts
Comments 0