저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
전 세계 시장이 사상 최고가를 동시에 기록하는 드문 상황으로 과거 강세장 말기와 유사하다고 경고. 본인은 대부분 주식을 매도하고 현금·달러 보유, 금·은 보유 유지(하락 시 추가 매수). 미국은 세계 최대 채무국이라 우려하며 달러 대체 통화는 아직 불명확하다고 봄. 중국 주식은 보유 유지하며 장기적으로 성장 기대. 장기 분산 및 '플랜 B' 준비를 조언.
다듬은 글
Jim Rogers is one of the most famous investors in the world. He is the co-founder of Quantum Fund and the author of several bestselling books. He has been studying financial markets for over five decades, trying to understand the forces that shape them. Jim, welcome back to the channel. Glad to be here, Dave.
Thank you. It's been about 18 months since our last conversation, and a lot has happened in that time . What is your current opinion on the state of global financial markets and geopolitics? I know this is a pretty big question, but I'm just trying to understand what, if anything, is happening that is fundamentally changing from what you've seen .
David, you know, everything is great in the whole world . This is one of the few times in world history when all markets reach all-time highs in investment history. Everyone is reaching a new high. This has rarely happened in history. If you look out the window, almost everyone is having a good time.
Hooray. So this worries me. I'm bothered when everyone is having a good time. I know enough history to know that this often ends badly. What does this remind you of? Because, as you say, it's quite unusual for all the markets to move in the same direction, north, at the same time. And you have been studying and working in financial markets for a long time.
You are truly a researcher of economic history, an expert in it. So what does this remind you of from what we saw before? Well, I repeat, this happened very rarely. This happened in the late 60s. This has happened several times in history. This happened in the 20s. But Dave, I mean, history shows that whenever things are easy for everyone, that's the time to ask questions.
This can be a time for concern. So of course I ask questions and maybe even start to worry. Um, you've said repeatedly on this channel over the last few years that the next bear market will be the biggest bear market of your lifetime . Um, you're saying now that everything is moving in one direction, and that when you look back at history, it's a signal that these things don't last forever?
Does that, um, give you a sense that we're closer to a bear market now than we were last time we spoke 18 months ago? Of course, we are closer. I mean, everything has grown. Everything in the world has grown. So, of course, we're nearing the end. Right now I have no idea how long we'll last. I'm not very good at market timing.
Um, unfortunately. But, if you know when it will end, please ring the bell. Um, please send me an email. Don't advertise it. Send me an email. Then you can announce it. Um, but they...I know these things always end, and I suppose this will end too. And I guess we're probably getting close because this has been growing for the longest time in American history.
And it grows everywhere. Now, maybe this time things are different. Maybe these are different times. But I realized that these were very dangerous words. When people say that this time things are different , it's time to get really worried, or at least ask a lot of questions. Yes, this time everything is different–this is a phrase that is usually followed by evidence that this time everything is no different.
Hmm , have you changed your financial situation over the last year-18 months, are you happy with your situation? Well, of course, about a month ago I sold most of my shares. I still own shares in China. I still own stocks in Uzbekistan, but I sold my stocks everywhere a few days ago, a few weeks ago, because, again, this is one of those rare moments in world history when every market is hitting new highs.
This has happened very rarely in history. This is great. This is great for those involved , but it has rarely happened. It's great for those who are in it and can, I think, get out in time, but one of the problems we run into is that when we see things going for the worse, we see a lot of money accumulating quite late.
And, in essence, in essence, you burn out. Now, you mentioned changing your position in terms of...So you said you sold most of your shares and most of your US shares. Are you okay with staying with cash right now, or I know you've had a strong allocation to precious metals for many years ? Are you changing your position, increasing or decreasing your precious metals position as a result of this, or are you still okay with staying with cash?
I still own the silver. I still own the gold. When they dropped, I bought more . Hopefully I'm smart enough to buy more if they drop again. If I think about it, I'm not too lazy. I'm sure... You can never have too much gold. There is never too much silver. Put some under the bed. Put some in the cupboard.
Everyone should have some gold and silver. Remember Jesus Christ? Jesus Christ was sold for 30 pieces of silver. That is, it was hundreds of years ago . Silver and gold have always been valuable and a good thing to own almost everywhere. And then, speaking of which, historically you've always been, um, a fan, for lack of a better phrase, of the US dollar.
We are starting to see inflationary pressures in the US. Hmm, this will be a problem for people who, um, hold cash. Hmm, are you currently reducing your cash holdings in favor of other asset classes? No, that's a good and insightful question. I have US dollars. That is, we should explain why. That is, the USA is the largest debtor country in world history.
And I own them because most people consider them a safe haven. It's not true, but people think it is. And that 's why I own a lot of US dollars. Uh, I'm certainly looking for who will be the new competitor to the US dollar, but at the moment I don't know. Every now and then, as we've talked over the years, and this was before, um, there was a lot of talk about how different BRICS currencies, um, or payment networks might actually evolve.
The question always came up : "Okay, so what then...What other currency will replace the US dollar?" Now it looks like it won't be another currency, but a payment mechanism, especially in the East, backed by precious metals. What is your opinion on the idea of dedollarization? Because we actually see it to a much greater extent in terms of foreign countries owning or reducing the amount of US debt.
So, do you think that the argument for dedollarization is stronger now, and that there is much more potential for something that can compete with , let's say, the dollar system, rather than the US dollar? I'm not the only person who knows that the United States is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world, but I'm also not the only person who knows, "Okay, what else is there ?" Where should we move?
What is the new competitor of the US dollar? And David, at this point I don't know. I'm trying to find out. I mean, maybe it will be Chinese currency. But the yuan is not yet fully freely convertible. I mean, he's getting close to it, but he hasn't reached the goal yet. So I don't know. I'm looking for options.
I repeat, if you know, don't announce it, send me an email, a private message. Because I'm looking for options. And you, when you talk about your stocks and the changes in your stock portfolio, you say you still hold, uh, China and you still hold, uh, Uzbekistan. Uh, you're just as big a fan of China now as you were in the past .
Well, the Chinese market has been growing rapidly recently. So I have to reconsider my position on this, but I still know that China will grow again, and that China will be an extremely important country in this century. I mean, China is the only country in world history that has been at the top three or four times.
Rome was great once. Britain was great once. Egypt was great once. But China was three or four times as big. I don't know why, but I know they're on the rise again. And I know they will be very successful in this century. You are obviously American, but you have a slightly different perspective because you no longer live in America, but in Singapore.
So you can look at how events are developing in the US from a different perspective. Is there anything that worries you about what's happening in the US right now? Okay, I'm an American, and I've been one all my life. Uh, but I can also read, and I know that the US is the largest debtor country in the history of the world, and the debt is growing every week, and I know that in Washington they say: don't worry .
Everything is fine. Mr. Trump says: don't worry. Well, maybe Mr. Trump won't care, but I can read, write, add, and subtract. And I know the numbers aren't very good. And tell me, what advice would you give to the average investor at this point to protect them from what you think could happen in the future?
Protect yourself from a bear market? No, what you think might happen in the future. Well, everyone should definitely have some money outside their country, whatever their country is, as an insurance policy against anything else. I think this is the most important advice. Please, everyone should have a second source, a second vault, a second place to store assets, because when the world really gets complicated, they're not going to call you and say, "Oh, let us help you transfer your money ." This will be very difficult.
It always was. Therefore, everyone should be prepared for something to go wrong. Maybe not. Maybe everything will be great. But somewhere in the world, something was always going wrong. And so I would encourage everyone to have a plan B. Everyone should have a plan B just in case... And you have written a huge number of books about financial markets over the last few decades, many of which are right here on my bookshelf in my office.
If you were writing a book now , in 2026, what would the topic of that book be? A. Well, that's an extremely good question. I think the most important thing I would try to explain to people is that history shows that things will go wrong. They always went wrong at one point or another, and that you, whoever you are, have to be prepared for when something goes wrong, figure out what could go wrong, and then have a plan B.
I want to reiterate that, Dave. Everyone should have a plan B. Everyone should have their own plan B, but everyone should have a plan B because history is pretty clear. This always happens. I really enjoyed talking to you, Jim, and chatting with you. Um, and I'm looking forward to doing it again in a few months.
In the meantime, Jim Rogers, thank you for joining us on the channel. David, it's always informative for me to talk to you. Thank you. Goodbye. Continue in the same spirit. Thank you. Goodbye. Goodbye.
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