저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
호르무즈 해협이 사실상 폐쇄된 상태이며, 이란이 무조건 항복하기 전까지 드론·미사일 위협이 지속돼 해협 통항 리스크가 크다고 진단. 시장은 단기 종전과 해협 개방을 선반영하고 있으나, 종전 증거가 없으면 IEA 전략비축유 방출은 단기 완충에 그칠 것이라고 봄. 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 수치 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
Well, yes, definitely could do with some in this scorching heat. But let's uh welcome on board Ed Yardini as well and find out what he's making of the global market construct. Ed, hi, good morning. Good to have you on the show. Uh Ed, and now you've got Karolene Levette uh you know assuring everyone that there will be some uh normaly in crude prices once uh operation fury does uh you know aim uh or rather achieve its objective.
What are you making of this heightened volatility in crude and um unsettling as it may be right now, do you think it's going to take normal or rather longer for normaly to set in? Well, I think a lot of it is of course the street of Harmuz. Uh right now it's effectively closed. Uh and everybody's trying to guess of uh when it might be opened again.
The the problem I have is as long as Iran doesn't concede agree that they've lost the war, as long as they don't surrender unconditionally, uh there's still going to be uh missiles and drones flying in in the Middle East. And of course, uh some of those drones could very well be aimed at tankers uh trying to get through the street.
I I'll turn more optimistic when I see that few tankers actually make it through the U straight without uh any incident. Um I suppose the US Navy is at some point uh going to help some of these vessels, but if the drones are still flying, it's still a big risk to try to cross through the straight. So I I need to see more evidence that uh this war is coming to an end.
Right now, it seems that everybody's jumping the gun lit literally uh and concluding that the guns will be put down, the missiles and the drones uh will be will be will stop flying and that there'll be a ceasefire. But uh nobody's told that to the Iranians, nobody's told that to the um the Israelis.
And meanwhile, looks like President Trump wants to declare victory. But in order to declare a victory, you have to have an enemy. uh that concedes that that point. Ed, uh how do you uh see this flip-flop of statements coming in from the from from Washington? Uh you know the crude has become so volatile now that you know even markets are now reacting to the kind of statements coming in.
Uh yesterday we saw how the US markets gave up all its gains after uh statements uh you know denying that you know US has started uh uh escorting escorting uh you know uh crude containers across state of homes. So do you think that you know it's going to be a prolonged one given the fact that you know you still have those uh uh drones drones which are still there because even though Iran may not be able to uh uh use ballistic missiles but drones are again a challenge for anyone uh you know moving containers across that region.
Correct. Yeah. Drones can do plenty of damage and can effectively continue this blockade to the extent that uh even if you can get insurance, you may not want to subject your ships, your vessels, your tankers to that that kind of risk. And the crews may also not be very enthusiastic about trying to cross the the straight.
uh the the problem we have is Iran is basically a terrorist state and I think u all of us uh concluded uh in the first day that maybe the war wouldn't last very long uh because Israel and and America managed to basically decapitate the regime. The problem with a terrorist state is they are professional terrorists and they just don't give up.
uh they continue to terrorize and that's the problem we have here. And by the way uh their strategy seems to be to create not just chaos in in the Middle East but chaos around the world. I think they basically want the world to uh put pressure on the United States and Israel to to stop attacking them and uh then uh and leave the regime alone which is kind of going back to square one as far as Israel and the United States are concerned.
Ed, uh how do you expect markets to respond from here on? We've seen we've seen uh some girrations uh evidently so but we started to see stability. You expect that stability to now continue? You expect that a lot of this is already priced in or are there any downside surprises or upside possibilities to this?
Well, it's a dangerous situation. There's a lot of surprises that could still happen. That's the fog of war and uh you know even the military experts uh can't kind of predict how this thing uh plays out but the market has chosen to discount uh the the best outcome which is a short war an open straight of harmuz uh with oil flowing and the market right now is uh welcoming that the international energy agency uh has proposed proposed that uh 38 of its members uh just release a lot of oil.
So that that could help in the short run, but it won't help if uh we have uh evidence that this war is not coming to an end very quickly and that the streets of Armuse aren't going to be opened very quickly. It's it oil from strategic petroleum reserves can help, but if the market starts to worry about the longerterm prospects of this situation, then it won't help much.
Right. It's so great having you on the show today. Thank you so much for your time. Thank you. All the best. Okay. Uh,
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