저자: Dylan·Vinnie · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리의 13F 공시를 분석. 알리바바 75,000주(+50%)·JD 200,000주(+60%) 추가매수로 중국주 관심 신호로 해석. 중국 주식이 2008년급으로 과도하게 저평가됐다고 주장하며, 알리바바 잉여현금흐름수익률 약 21~50% 추정. 두 진행자 모두 알리바바 장기 보유 의향, 지정학(대만) 리스크 언급. 13F는 45일 지연 공시라는 한계도 지적.
다듬은 글
hey welcome back to two super guys tread Sox I'm Dylan and I'm Vinnie and today we have one of those very special days Michael burus as we like to call it where he files his 13A filing we find out what this secretive value investor that everyone L to track is doing with his portfolio in particular he bought Alibaba one of our favorite socks we're gonna talk about it right now yeah stups thank God all right what's up no I'm I'm if he bought it he's usually early but that means it's going to go up it's not the only time he's bought it too and mind you 13 filing it's 45 days out of date so who knows dyl and I did a separate video just actually this week about their earnings watch that video by means you know it's something that we both have our money in we both track it like we actually care about it we're putting our money where mouth is um but Michael bur you know not this guy that he's an actor okay this this guy the actual real Dr Michael bur uh that I found this really nice uh portfolio kind of breakdown here of his most recent filing to show so Alibaba is actually his number one holding as of right now for individual stock and JD is number two he actually added to both of them in the most recent quarter really signaling that you know he's finds value in China there are a few other companies here that you know some kind of more notable names HCA is a large health care company um oral switching gear City group is one Dylan and I have talked about before we both have owned it in the past both given up on that company to be honest z% yeah CVS is actually one I I've owned it once and then like I kind of go back and forth I definitely from a value perspective it makes sense on paper I'm curious to see how they can eventually unlock it um we can do a separate video on some of these others there's a couple other big headline names here alphabet and Amazon all right alphabet's one that I own as well and I'm sure I know you do as well do we um do we have the do we know how much he added to Baba and it's in there exactly I'm going I'll show you in one second here um but as far as the new new buys it's HC of America Oracle and City Group were his new buys for this most quarter all decent Siz positions too like you know around 5% of his portfolio uh which seems to be about what he tries to maintain for his typical size positions yeah it does suck though because he has no idea that City sucks and it's just the worst piece of crap Bank in the planet he has no idea that that's not going to make him money but that's fine I know for for traditional value guy he definitely has a much shorter time Horizon in terms of cycling in and out of stocks than you would really think personally I've owned Alibaba now for a couple years and I plan on owning it for the next decade you know uh I think that's how long it's going to take for them to fully unlock their value but you know each their own I guess the this is the breakdown of his two Chinese like ads here so jd.com um he bought an additional 75,000 shares all right bringing his total to 200,000 shares um sizable 60% increase from the last quarter right total now was almost $6 million in jd.com shares Alibaba Holdings he bought another 25,000 shares bring bringing up to 75,000 which is a 50% increase over the previous quarter and just a slightly Edge it out 5.81 million so that is his largest individual holding right now which is as far as we can tell right because obviously 13 F rules not everything has to be reported or disclosed publicly um you know I think this this kind of highlights the the emotion or sentiment around Chinese stocks right now if you've seen headlines at this right this isn't the only one there's a lot of them out there um but that the Chinese stocks are so disfavored right now that they may be having the 2008 moment where basically being really crafts here but you know during 2008 like you crash in the US markets you could throw your you know a dart at the bint board and end up with a stock that's going to go up 100% like that's how ridiculous it got to be you know so so far off from the foundation of value that these stocks should have it it just because alib Baba is his biggest holding sorry about my voice guys by the way I had lost it that was sick um but JD is second so I mean they're in the almost the exact same space so when you look at like his CVS holding which was high this is double when you add both those together so I mean yeah sweet his time he is notoriously early and he also leaves notoriously early like for instance he was a big buyer of oxy at 25 and left at 30 and now it's 60 yeah that was like a year and a half ago so or the famous GameStop Trend yeah he was out at 30 before it saw hundreds of dollars a share um you know this this you know this overall Mark indication for the hangang index here look at this like you're talking about the entire Market being back to 2009 levels so like calling it the 2008 moment for these stocks actually makes more sense than you would you would think even on like a you know a deeper level there um you know definitely a lot of opportunity this is my most recent Alibaba earnings video but I was calculating a 21% like free cash flow yield just from the trailing 12 months someone actually pointed out in the comments too that when I when I did the calculation I completely ignored their asset value as far as like their Investments right don't forget they own things like ant group and things like that true I completely ignored that um and when you when you actually add that in if you give them full credit for what they say it's worth mind you this is Alibaba had a you know digit percentage of return on invested Capital so not probably the best allocators of capital um but if you actually believe their face value the turn on invested cap I mean their uh uh free casual yield here is like closer to like 50% it's like absolutely insane you know would you bu more I'm gonna ask you that after this sorry no yeah it's all good that you know we all have our own risk tolerance that's basically what my my position is I'm happy with I will hold it right or die um and unless the US invades Taiwan or something seriously deteriorates with alibaba's business fundamentals those are my two kind of things that would cost me to sell the stock otherwise everything right now is still Green from my end he meant China if anyone's watching he said if us invades Taiwan well maybe yeah you think the US is gonna invade Ty what to me no absolutely ridiculous I know I know um these are like positions he called uh closed out stantis and I'm sorry um and uh euronav which the auto retailer I want to say and then decreases positions in nextar and booking Holdings yeah said he's a very active Trader uh so what you make out of that it's kind of up to you um but yeah definitely interesting to see you know Michael bur not only holding on to his Alibaba shares but buying more so makes me a little more optimistic maybe we will actually see finally a bottom in Chinese equities do you have any JD I do not I got 100 shares but it's it's such a low price I might buy another couple hundred I'm going to buy another couple hundred yeah yeah that's all I needed I just needed some backup that was it slight push Michael brry bought it it's good enough for Dylan all right guys smart or not let us know you think down in the comments down below I'd love to hear your thoughts have a good one guys
Comments 0