저자: Dylan · 외국인
요약 보기
TLT(장기 국채 ETF)를 93달러 부근 지지선 기준으로 누적 매수하는 wheel 전략(현금담보 풋 매도·커버드콜)을 설명. 2024년 금리인하 시점(3월→5월 가능성)을 논하며 금리 하락 시 TLT 상승을 기대. 단, 발언자는 리스크를 강조하고 투자 권유가 아니라고 명시. 채권 금리는 현재 5.25~5.5%에서 4.6% 근처로 하락 전망이라고 언급.
다듬은 글
Hello, back to "Two Super Guys Trade Talks." I'm Dylan , and I'm Vinny. We're going to talk about TLT accumulation, kids. Let's consider a strategy of cached puts and covered calls, a " wheel strategy," as I'm trying to accumulate TLT because it looks pretty good with some tight parameters. So, Michael Bury's old deal .
Let's take a look. Ha? Two stupid guys. TLT. Okay, here's TLT. Right now I still have the 200-day moving average in blue and it does n't really matter for this. This is more for traditional stocks. So you can ignore these lines. But what really matters are the support and resistance lines. And if anyone says no, they are wrong.
TLT is a little different. Just look at the graph and zoom out. He is really different. But average values, moving averages—no. So, here is TLT now. Good. It is held around $93. Very important. Let's zoom out a little. You see we have a good base at 93. I sold put options. Now I'll show you my current one.
Then let's zoom out even more. Here is the range I am looking at. Okay, if I zoomed out even further, the low was around 80 , which we never got below. It's a pity I didn't buy it then. Anyone with an average TLT purchase price between 80 and 85, you are my hero. I'll pat you on the back. Good job, guys.
I have 93. But I'm looking at the upper range of 110, the lower range of 93, and if the put options are exercised, I'll have more TLT, so I won't be upset. Of course. Okay. So why is this important? Nothing is guaranteed. Do I think TLT should rise due to the current economic situation? Yes. Could I burn out if World War III starts?
Yes. So the risk still exists. Of course, there is a risk. However, they hinted at three rate cuts that may or may not happen in 2024, most likely the first in May, we'll see. We are currently at 5.25–5.5 , and we expect a decline to around 4.6. Okay. The first opportunity is March 19th. These are the dates when rate cuts may occur.
What do you think? I said earlier that I think they will do it in March . Uh, my opinion is really changing, and you know, I just listened to Steve Eisman's interview on CNBC where he talks about how he's going to look at the lessons of Paul Volcker and, you know, the train of thought of Jerome Powell.
It's going to be much tighter for longer than people expect, and that actually the swing should be in the opposite direction as we expect the rate cuts, you know, it's going to be slower and smaller than we think. Yes. And that's the thing. In that video I talked about May. Yes, they said. Um, the main thing is that if there is no rate cut , it's not really true.
If you use the “wheel” strategy, it simplifies things a lot. If there is a rate cut, then the levels I showed you are worthless, because the scenario, the thesis, have changed. So there is a lot of volatility for TLT at the current interest rate in the range of 100 to 80, which is a crazy range. That's a lot , right?
Many things have happened during this time. But it faltered in about 6 weeks or so . It seemed like it went from 80 to 100 very, very quickly. Now it's come back and cooled down to below 90. But I can show you that on the weekly chart. It was from mid-October and all the way through December, from 80 to 100.
So yeah, you saw what happened to the stock market at that time, right? The stock market is up 13% for the S&P 500. Madness. Kapets. Okay, do you want to explain this while I get ready? So, this is the CME FedWatch tool. It is based on options pricing, where people think what the Fed rate will be in the next few meetings.
So, look at that blue color in the top corner. 84%, meaning rates will likely remain the same at the March meeting. The first rate cut, 52% probability at the May meeting, is what they are predicting now. Yes. Class. OK. The "wheel" strategy that no one...knows, of course, only try this if you are completely sure.
I'm not giving you any advice at all. This could burn out. I could lose all my money. You never know. So, you collect your shares. You are selling covered call options. One of two things happens. You are being summoned. So, okay, you lost your shares, you get a premium. If they are not redeemed, you are left with the shares and the premium.
Good job. Good. Then when that happens, you sell the cash-backed put, which is what I'm doing right now at 93. Okay. I was collecting the premium on this, and my options didn't exercise, although , to be honest, I secretly hope that they will. So I'm going to change my approach to collect more premium.
I'll add a little risk. Okay. Perfectly. Just increase the risk a little. Um, here are two. So, I choose very short terms. It's 10 days. Oh, that's not close. I will earn $110 in these 10 days because it's easier to calculate. Of course. I...I'll take $100 in 10 days. And I also have four enough for four more contracts that I'm not using .
I just put them aside and earn interest until I feel more confident with the strategy. I only risk enough to buy two contracts at a time. Ahem. Maybe I'll change my mind. I feel excited. Um, so here's the actual bonus you can get. Again , this is if you look at, is this the 21st number? Yes, the 21st.
Literally 10 days from today. I'm filming on Sunday. So actually, uh, what is it, about eight trading days, seven trading days? Pretty close. There is also a holiday there. President's Day, don't forget. Okay. Yes. So, it's not really that many days. There are only about seven trading days. The day was long.
I can't count. Um, if you look at what I wanted to consider, not saying I would do it, what I would consider is selling cash-backed puts at the 95 level. The 93 level is very strong. So, if I sold three more puts, I would collect $450 in premium. And, most likely , as long as everything remains unchanged, either about 95 will be appointed, or I will just take the bonus and everything will be fine.
Again, there is a lot of risk here. I'm not telling you to do this. I don't want you to think that I'm advising you to do this . Bad things can happen. I understand that. Although it's not as risky as the short from Everything Money Paul in the video. I...yes. A completely different risk. Interesting.
Uh , yes. And again. Here are the levels I'm working on. Just to leave it here. Can it drop below 93? Yes. A part of me hopes that happens because, honestly, I'd love to have a chance to walk in for $80. Um, I just don't think TLT will go below 80, especially when interest rates are going down and therefore TLT will go up because of that economic environment.
So, yes, we can't stay at this high level forever. This is killing the housing market . Fewer and fewer houses are being purchased. There are people with car payments of $3,000. I'm not saying it's just because of interest rates. There are other errors there too. Yes. Never take such large payments for a car.
This is madness. Um, but this is definitely a deal that interests me. Let me know what you think about it. Uh , anything else? No, I mean I like the idea. Did you also sell call options on the ones you have, even at a strike price of $110? I haven't yet, because he's only reached the 98 mark once, or, sorry, twice.
Now that it has happened and the price has come back , I will. But I was waiting to see what would happen after he left, because the one thing you don't want—and that's why I have a rule for, excuse me, covered calls. And if you watch this channel, I said I was trying to sell covered calls on AMD, and I tried at a price of around 130.
He kept breaking my rules, so I never did it. And that's why I have this rule, because right now it's worth 170, and I haven't lost my shares. Yes. So, there must be certain conditions for me to be able to make a covered call option. I will say that I am less worried about this than I am about common stocks for covered options because it is not the same as TLT jumping to 130 without any change in interest rates.
The jump from 80 to 130—it's a little crazy, but you know. Yes. And I had another thought about Robinhood, where you get interest. When you sell a cash-backed put option in your Robinhood account, does Robinhood set that money aside so you no longer earn 4.9% on it? Oh, yes. Okay. So you only make $110 every 10 days on that money, instead of it being $9,300, I believe.
So, yes, it would be an interesting idea if you were to receive both interest on them and sell covered or cash-backed put options to generate income on the same amount of money. This would be like an endless bug in Robinhood if it were possible. It would be an endless Robin Hood glitch. I believe, don't take it as fact , I believe.
No, because the money is set aside and it is no longer cash. This is a pending option, because I asked Robin Hood about it about a year ago, and I was really hoping, but no. Yes. This is free money. This is a free 5% for nothing. I even spend this money and still get five, but no. OK. Okay, dude. Well, that's an interesting deal.
I hope everything works out . Yes, me too. I hope I don't lose everything. Okay, guys. Let me know what you think.
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