저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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Marc Faber는 원자재 장기 강세장이 이어질 가능성이 크다고 보며, 금·은·백금 등 귀금속은 10년 단위로 보면 큰 손실 가능성이 낮다고 주장한다. 원자재 및 유가: 원자재는 1999~2000년 약세장 종료 후 유가(2008년까지)와 금(2011년까지) 강세를 거쳐 조정 후 2020년 8월 이후 하락했으나, 귀금속은 아직 강세장이라고 봤다. 금은 2,000달러 이상에서 1,700달러 부근으로 하락했다. 유가는 올해 100달러도 가능하며, 친환경 전환 과정에서 오히려 더 많은 원유 소비가 필요할 수 있다고 주장했다. 우라늄: 우라늄은 환경친화적 자원이라며 포트폴리오에 일부 보유할 것을 권했고, 카메코(Cameco) 같은 주식 또는 ETF를 언급했다. 우라늄주는 수년간 바닥에서 횡보하다 이제 막 움직이기 시작했다고 평가했다. 금리: 미국 10년물 금리는 1981년 15% 이상에서 하락세였고, 2020년 여름 약 0.55%에서 장기 저점을 찍은 뒤 상승했으나 과도하게 올랐으며 조정이 올 것으로 보았다. 단기 트레이드로 TLT 매수를 고려할 만하다고 언급했다. 장기적으로는 금리 상승 추세를 전망했다. 버블 및 자산별 평가: 미국 증시 일부 섹터(FAANG 및 관련주, 반도체, 게임주)는 거대한 버블이며, 버블이 꺼지면 전체 시장도 끌어내릴 수 있다고 경고했다. 비트코인은 단기간 급등해 버블 성격이 있다고 보았고, 금·은·백금이 10년 뒤 현재보다 높을 가능성이 크다고 했다. 투자 원칙: 자산의 일정 비율(예: 20~50%)을 귀금속에 배분하고, 손실 방지가 우선이라고 강조했다. 금광주는 국유화, 수용, 비용 초과 등 리스크가 많지만 성공 시 큰 수익이 가능하다고 했다. 본인은 실물을 선호하며 금광주는 단기 매매용으로 활용한다고 밝혔다. 지역적으로는 BHP, 리오틴토, 글렌코어 같은 대형 광산주를 장기 가치주로 언급했다. 변동성: 변동성은 크게 상승할 것으로 전망했다.
다듬은 글
You are listening to Mining Stock Education, where you'll learn from the top leaders in the natural resource sector and uncover quality mining investment opportunities. Stocks like BHP Rio, Glencore, in the long run are good value. They're not going to make as much money as if you go and buy some Canadian or Australian mining stocks, but I think they're good value.
You're on the conservative side. Number two, I think that the uranium stocks, if everything works out, they have huge potential. Thanks for tuning in to Mining Stock Education. I'm your host Bill Powers. Joining me today is Marc Faber. He is the editor, publisher of the Gloom, Boom, and Doom Report.
His website is gloomboomdoom.com. Marc, thanks for coming on the show today. You're a well-noted You're well-noted commentator, and I you cover the commodities, the precious metals, macroeconomics. So, I'd like to start off by getting your perspective on whether we're going to see a commodity supercycle.
I've read articles saying that yes, we're going to see that assuredly, and other people saying no, the jury's out. What are your thoughts regarding this topic? As you know, we had the bear market, long-term bear market in commodities, that came to an end in 1999-2000. And then we had a very strong, powerful bull market for oil until 2008 and for gold 2011.
Then we had a correction uh for the precious metals until December 2015. And then we took off again. And uh since last August, August 2020, we're down quite a lot. Gold was over 2 uh 2,000. And we dropped to around 1,700. So, I think if I look at just talking about precious metals, if I look at precious metals, I think they are still in a bull market, yes.
It would be unusual for precious metals to only have a bull market of say around 10 years, 1999 to 2011. I think that bull market will continue as well as for other commodities. But we don't know how high because commodity prices will depend on demand. The production side will not go up a lot. And the demand will depend on industrial production.
And industrial production will depend on the global economy. That we don't know for sure. The one thing we know for sure is that the geniuses at central banks will continue to print money. And so, I would argue we don't know for sure, but it's likely that because of the money printing prices of commodities will be relatively well supported.
You know, I can't see gold tumbling by 80%. Can I see Bitcoins going down by 80%? I don't know. I wouldn't bet on it, but I don't think it will happen. Mark, do you think that even if we can't predict the demand side for a lot of these commodities, are there any commodities that you're looking at where you can look and say there's a supply crunch, so just for that alone I'm bullish on it.
Yes, I think the supply is limited, you know, in some sectors of industrial commodities. But don't forget a lot of industrial commodities have been weak until just 6 months ago. And so during that period of time not much was developed in terms of new properties. And we also have a phenomenon at the present time and this is this additional demand arising from climate change investments.
Do you understand? People think they will reduce the demand for oil by making all kinds of investments in other sources of energy. But maybe these sources of energy will use much more industrial commodities than would have been used had we just continued to essentially burn fossil fuels. So my view is here.
We don't know a 100% outcome that this is a sure thing that this and that will happen. We don't know that. But I think it's quite likely that if we look at the quantity of money that has been printed over the last 20, 40, 60 years we can say that commodity prices are not particularly expensive. What about oil?
Do you think we see $100 oil this year? Yeah, it's quite possible, quite probable. I think in order to become environmentally friendly, you will need to burn more oil. as paradoxical as this sounds and maybe sounds to some people stupid. But I think the climate change fanatics they uh they have overlooked a few important factors in their equation.
So do you not invest in any renewable energy sources? Actually, I'm a bad example because I own some coal stocks and I own oil stocks. And I own uh bonds of oil-related assets and so forth. So you know for that I'm the wrong example. What about uranium? Do you invest in uranium at all? Yes. I don't consider that to be necessarily renewable.
Correct. Yes. But but I think uranium has a great future future price potential. But again uh you have to see very clear. The greens, the people that are environmentally friendly they don't like uranium. But the fact is that uranium is the environmentally most friendly commodity. You understand? You should all own some uh uranium in your portfolio.
Either buy some ETF or buy some stocks like Cameco, which I owned from time to time. At the moment I've no position, but I intend to buy again. Mark, you may have already answered this question, but where do you stand on the inflation, deflation, stagflation debate? If we look at interest rates they peaked out in 1981.
At uh on the US Treasury on the 10 years at over 15%. We've been in a bear market until uh I mean a bear market for interest rates. In other words, interest rates coming down. Uh we've been in a downtrend for interest rates. That's better expression. And since then, in other words, 40 years, and it seems to me that we made a long-term low last summer at uh on the 10 years, I think it was around 0.55% around that level.
Since then, we've gone up. I think uh we've gone up too much. I think a correction is coming. So, as a trade, you may consider buying, say, the TLT is a long-term Treasury ETF. That could rebound here. It dropped almost 20% from the high. So, but but long-term, I think if you ask me uh in 20 years, Mark, uh where do you see interest rates?
I'd tell you I'm not sure I'm going to see them in 20 years time. I I I just in case I were survivor, then I'd say that the the trend will be upwards. There's no question about this. Dore Copper Mining is a premier near-term high-grade copper and gold redevelopment opportunity with tremendous exploration potential only 14 km from the town of Chibougamau in mine-friendly Quebec.
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Because of the existing infrastructure and location, a low capex is anticipated to recommence production. Doré Copper trades under DCMC in Toronto and under DRCMF on the OTC. To learn more, go to dorecopper.com. That's dorecopper.com. When it comes to US equities, would you call this a bubble? Some sectors are in a colossal bubble.
Other sectors are not in a bubble. But because uh the most important sectors are in such a bubble, once the bubble burst, and you know, the FAANG and FAANG-related stocks, semiconductors, all break down, I suppose it will knock down the rest of the market as well. You know, some sectors, you know, also game stock, nobody can tell me that this isn't a bubble.
It's a colossal bubble. Or even if someone says, "Well, you know, Bitcoins are not in a bubble." Yes, I can believe that because the argument is that the limit There's a limited supply, and then then the money printing is endless, but the behavior of Bitcoins in the sense that they've gone up so much in such a short period of time, you could essentially argue that they're in some kind of a bubble.
You You understand? This is different. If you look at the price of gold and silver, gold was at, say, plus minus 300 in 1999. We're now at plus minus 1,700. We had upward moves, corrections, upward moves, and so forth. So, nobody can make a case that this is a bubble. There was maybe a bubble in 2011 when a lot of speculators drove up small mining stocks.
But personally, if you came to me and I don't know you and you said Mark, I'd like to invest for the next 10 years in something. Uh should I buy Bitcoins or should I buy gold or silver? I tell you, why don't you buy gold and silver and platinum? Because with these three commodities I'm pretty sure that you will not lose a lot of money.
You may not make as much money as with Bitcoins and other cryptos but I think uh a fairly safe assumption would be that over the next 10 years especially following the correction these commodities had, that they will be higher than they are today. You know, without knowing your financial objectives if uh a certain financial security is your objective then I would go essentially for precious metals.
And precious metal stocks as well? Yes. But as you know precious metal stocks are very volatile and there are times when the speculators running to one stock and then it runs up along with the price of gold or silver and then there is a correction and then another stock runs up. You understand? It's not with precious metals, gold, silver, platinum one of them for sure will do relatively well.
The what one or the other will outperform and the one will underperform. But with gold shares, you have all these issues about nationalization and expropriation and cost overruns and changing regulations and so forth. There's a a lot of things that can go wrong. But if it goes right, you know, you can make a lot of money.
So, I know quite a few people who invested in gold shares, in mining stocks, they become very rich. By just investing in gold and silver, they would have made that much money. So, what in terms of a portfolio breakdown, what do you recommend in terms of physical precious metals and also the precious metals stocks?
This is very much an individual question. I personally, I prefer physical. But because I have quite a lot of physical, I also have some gold shares. And I use gold shares more for trading purposes. In other words, if I see that there's an opportunity on the upside in metals, then I may buy gold shares that look attractive on the charts.
Because we see that day or two, they can move 10-15%. I don't see gold and silver moving up 10-15% in just one day. Yes. Do you do any volatility trades? Like what are your expectations for volatility this year and are there any trades that you're employing right now? Uh volatility will go up a lot, not just a little, a lot.
But I equally, I don't think this is a very good incentive to make money in markets. I mean, I tell everyone, if you have money and you work for your money, in other words, uh you put some effort up to have this money. You didn't just get it from heaven or from your grandmother or uncle and so forth.
Then one of the objectives should be that you don't lose it. Never mind making a huge fortune out of it. You can live with a small fortune. But, uh it's better to live with a small fortune than to lose it all, you understand? So, my uh recommendation to an individual would be okay, here I have my allocation to precious metals.
Maybe 30% of the portfolio, maybe 50% of the portfolio, only 20% of the total portfolio including real estate and stocks and so forth. And of that, you may say I will speculate with 30% and 70% I will invest conservatively. Or you may say, "I don't care. I'm smart and I'm young. I earn a lot of money.
I can always earn a lot of money because I'm so smart." And so, I will take huge risks. That makes sense. Okay, so because you're speaking to an American who's heavily exposed, myself, to precious metals and precious metals and resource stocks, if there'd be one place that you could point me to a potential high return investment anywhere in the world, where would it be?
You know, stocks like BHP or Rio, Glencore, in the long run are good value. They're not going to make as much money as if you go and buy some Canadian or Australian mining stocks, but I think they're good value. You're on the conservative side. Number two, I think that the uranium stocks, if everything works out, they have huge potential.
Because they've been coming down for years and they've been bottoming out now for maybe 5 or 10 years. They never moved. And I think now they just started to move. So, I would say this is a sector that is out of favor and where there is some opportunity. Mark, before you go, what will investors find at gloomboomdoom.com?
Optimistic forecast. With the word doom in it? No, they have I have a monthly website report and I have also the gloomboomanddoom report, which is more detailed and also more expensive. So, there are two choices, basically. Excellent. Well, Mark, I really appreciate your time. I know it's late where you are, so thanks for staying up to chat with me. Well, it's my pleasure. Take care, Phil. Bye-bye.
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