저자: RebelCapitalist · 외국인
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마이클 버리의 최근 인플레이션·하이퍼인플레이션 경고를 소개하며, 정부 재정지출 확대와 통화 팽창이 장기적으로 인플레이션을 키울 수 있다는 논지를 전개한다. 버리의 트윗 요지: 재개방과 부양책으로 인플레이션 압력이 커질 수 있고, 정부가 비트코인·금을 억제할 가능성도 언급했다는 내용이다. 트위터 글은 삭제됐다고 한다. 버리가 인용한 책(Jens Parsson의 'Dying of Money')과 1920년대 독일·1970년대 미국 인플레이션 사례를 소개하며 역사적 유사성을 강조한다. 진행자는 자신이 하이퍼인플레이션을 주장하는 것은 아니라고 선을 긋는다. 소비자물가는 과거 10년보다 더 오를 것으로 보지만 1970년대 수준은 5년 내 가능성 정도로 말한다. 자산가격은 디플레이션 쪽에 가깝다는 입장이다. 연준의 2% 목표 달성 실패 이력을 들어 연준이 인플레를 일부러 키울 것이라는 주장에 반론을 제시한다. 통화정책에서 재정정책으로 체제가 바뀌는 중이며, 정부가 연준법 등 규칙을 무시하고 있다고 본다. 다만 현재 체제라면 자산은 디플레이션이 우세할 것이라고 설명한다. 영상 후반에는 금리 상승기 투자 전략을 다룬 다음 영상을 예고한다. 구체적 가격 목표나 개별 종목 매매 추천은 없다.
다듬은 글
hey guys hope you are well have a news story that i've been thinking about maybe doing a whiteboard video on it and it's uh not recent but it's within the last couple weeks or so let me hit the screen share let's check it out big short investor michael bury says prepare for inflation and warns bitcoin and gold might be at risk so michael bourie expects the economy's reopening and more stimulus to fuel inflation the big short investor warned government might squash bitcoin and gold to protect their currencies i want to highlight he said might a lot of times these guys try to write headlines you know to get more clips clicks or whatever kind of spin the words the guy's using so i don't know how uh adamant he was about that but bury highlighted germany's hyperinflation in the 1920s as a cautionary tale for the us and this was via twitter i noticed that berry took down these tweets and then he's he replaced them with three just i don't know like bizarre tweets about some korean restaurant in san francisco or something i don't know i i he's either a crazy guy or he's trying to just throw people off the off his trail or something like that i don't know but anyway the original tweet was prepare for hashtag inflation the investor said in a now deleted tweet from thursday night reopening and stimulus on the way pre-covet it looks uh it took three dollars of debt to create one dollar of gdp and it is worse now so what this is implying is the government is going to have to spend more and more and more and more money and this is going to create a powder keg that at some point in time and this could be a year could be five years who knows we could experience asset price deflation uh in the interim but at some point in time it's it's setting up an environment or it's creating this powder keg of inflation uh it's going to explode now again whether it's now whether it's in five years ten years who knows but the they're setting the stage now an inflationary credit let's see and it's uh worse now right in an inflationary crisis governments will move to squash competitors in the currency arena bitcoin gold so what i think why he's getting at this goes back to gresham's law and the bad money pushes out the good so people will take the bad money and they'll buy something that's perceived as a hard asset or a store of values bitcoin gold commodities something like that anything to get rid of this paper money that the government is printing hand over fist that's what we've seen in in rapid inflation and or hyperinflations in in past history so we all know who michael bury is the scion asset management chief underscored the rising threat of inflation in a flurry of follow-up tweets he quoted at length from dying of money lessons of the great german and american inflation a book by jens o parson to drive his message home and after this i was thinking this might be a good book to to read i don't know if they've got maybe an audio book i was going to research that tonight berry highlighted passages from the book about the recurrence of inflation throughout history how it's usually preceded listen to this by an economic boom and a spike in overnight fortunes and how it leads to soaring crime surging living costs and poverty the investor compared germany's path to hyperinflation in the 1920s to america's current trajectory or the us started by not paying germany then maybe the u.s now started by not paying adequately for its war you compare this to the current war on the cerveza sickness and the gfc fallout out of the sacrifices of its people taxes but covered its deficit with war loans maybe in this case treasuries and issues of new paper right marks in this case it's dollars hashtag doomed to repeat bree tweeted history is not useless he said in another tweet this text explores the 1970s american inflation which is more relevant today than one might think berry also drew parallels between the market mania and germany before inflation took off and the reddit fueled buying of meme stocks this year that led robin hood to temporarily halt purchases of certain stocks i didn't know that about uh the german hyperinflation that's super interesting makes me want to get that book even more now before the german hyperinflation 1920s everyone from the elevator operator up was playing the market wow i did not know that and volumes became such that the financial industry could not keep up with the paperwork and the force not sure what that is maybe the oh okay so the boris looks like it's a brokerage uh was obla was uh obliged to close sound familiar hashtag robinhood down he tweeted burry's latest comments echo his warnings of massive market bubble and his description of the game stop frenzy as unnatural insane and dangerous alrighty then and when i saw some of his tweets i retweeted them and i said man it sounds like michael bury's been watching my whiteboard videos because he's saying the exact same thing i'm not implying that he is although i might have said this on an earlier video he is definitely following uh macro voices and lynn alden i i think i went over that the other day because he used a chart that lin has only used on an episode of macro voices so we know you know we know he's a fan of my good friend uh lynn alden and eric townsend that's for sure okay and i want to be very clear i'm not saying that you should prepare for hyperinflation i'm not saying that we're going to get significant inflation over the next year i think that consumer prices will go up i don't know to what degree i think up more than they have over the past uh 10 years call it um but you know are we going to get the 1970s in the next year or two i have no idea i think we will get the 1970s within the next five years um and then we we could get some serious serious inflation you know five years ten years something like that um like i don't know if i call it hyperinflation but something that exceeds the rate of inflation that we saw in the 1970s and why mean inflation again i would be very clear talking about consumer price inflation i'm not talking about assets i mean if you i was listening to an uh a podcast from another one of my favorites uh jeff snyder and emil kalinowski and jeff made a great point he's like the fed has has been talking about getting inflation up to two percent or letting inflation run hot by their measurements using the cpi and i know that's kind of a bogus measurement but that's how the fed is measuring whether or not they're achieving their objectives they've been trying to do that since 2008 and they haven't even been able to do it so now why on earth should we believe the fed that they're going to let it run hot right now when they haven't even been able to get inflation based on their measurement up to two percent in 12 years so that doesn't at least for a sustained period of time so that's another great counter argument but um i personally think that the system is changing and uh we've gone from monetary policy which i agree may or may not create inflation to fiscal policy which i think the way we will implement fiscal policy will be the difference between what the japan experience looked like and what the us experience looked like 2008-2020 what the european experience looked like and i think we're going to see more of what we saw maybe in the u.s and in japan by the way in the 1970s but we'll see there's a great argument on on both sides that's for sure and who knows the timing of it but you know even the guys that are on the deflation camp uh even they say that at some point in time the end game is is just wicked amounts of inflation they just believe that we're going to see some serious deflation uh before that but everyone agrees on the end game so all right guys i'm gonna go for a jog any questions on this story from the last couple weeks from michael bury something that is obviously really interesting to me because it's echoed a lot of the things that we've outlined on the on the youtube channel on the george gammon channel and some of the whiteboard videos george what would stop us from having hyperinflation why would it not be possible in here and now are modest of stimi our mod is the same yeah so if the system remained the same as it was then we wouldn't i don't think we'd experience serious price inflation and we would definitely experience massive asset deflation huge asset deflation meaning that the government really isn't going all out with fiscal spending they're not increasing their deficits they're not doing stemi checks if it went back to the federal reserve abiding by the federal reserve act where the only thing they're doing is um just quantitative easing and uh and just lowering interest rates and they're not buying corporate debt they're not uh you know monetizing eighty percent of what the government is is deficit spending if we went back to a world where were where the government and the fed is constrained by the law then i would totally be on the side of the deflationist as far as asset prices i personally would still believe that uh consumer price inflation would continue to go up um maybe not 1970s but i think it's it's just the way the system is structured now it'd be very difficult to have consumer price deflation over a sustained period of time meaning like two or three four years maybe a couple months sure but not over a long period of time but i i would definitely be on the deflationist camp as far as uh assets for sure for sure um but i just believe that they're gonna that the system is going to change and they're going to ignore the rules they have ignored the federal reserve act blatantly not just the the letter of the law but even the spirit of the federal reserve act in the sense that they've set up these special purpose vehicles to go in and buy corporate debt uh not even debt junk debt for heaven's sakes and the the government has just been spending money like we have never seen i mean you always say you're drunk insolvent uncle sam or they're spending money like a drunken sailor or whatever but but that's not even i i mean that's almost disrespectful to all the drunken sailors out there i mean five trillion dollar deficit in one year five trillion and that is staggering amount and now we're seeing that we're seeing it reflected in the uh real economy and so you know i think that most of the deflations guys and they're right on the money that prior to this the commercial banking system was really responsible for creating the majority of money supply or currency units in the real economy absolutely correct absolutely 100 no getting around that and that now the commercial banking system is really cut back you know they're not there's fewer people out there to uh lend to as far as entrepreneurs that will create goods and services so they're they're not really getting aggressive with their lending there's no animal spirits as keynes would say so and i totally agree with that i just think that the amount of government spending is going to supersede the amount of restrain in creating currency units through additional lending we see from the commercial banking system it's just but that's that's that's not even an argument that's just the debate that that's kind of the thought experiment going back and forth between the at least the people who are really who know what they're talking about so i would include snyder obviously snyder uh you know lynn um brent uh johnson luke groman uh individuals like that you know steve a stephen meter um you know chris mcintosh uh those those people there on finn twit um that are are really high level thinkers uh you know lacey hunt obviously um russell napier so um that that's really just the difference between all of those people is just kind of on the edges most people think it's just they're diametrically opposed they're really not they just disagree on very little subtle things that are aren't really economic questions they're really political questions okay when is the next video on my channel on the george gammon channel it's coming out in like an hour or two i'm just looking at the yes about an hour or two and it's just it's on how to invest for higher interest rates so kind of a more of a little bit different usually i explain some you know tough concepts and whatnot i explained some concepts tonight as well but um very straightforward and it's more just kind of outlining what we've seen over the past few weeks and months with interest rates going up how that's affecting the market and how you may adjust your your portfolio uh to take advantage of that if you believe that interest rates are going to continue to go up all right we'll do some shout outs here and i'm going to head out and get in a good jog this evening wonderful weather here in phoenix and i cannot wait to get outside get some fresh air and get some good exercise get the endorphins going hey my buddies i i don't know if you want me to mention your name or not but jet set horse bet very very good friend of mine hope you're well man i hope you're really well okay conrad uh peter ay asim i'm assuming that's asymmetric maybe uh investing jr value stonks harry hunter 504 boy 8wd for feral infesting some of these usernames are crazy seymour rivers tony k all nighter heater in the house think and grow rich i thought i saw some other of the usual folks in here klaus schwab in the house angelique in the house there we go tony k good to see you guys and toronto adam adamson flint lucas cosima casey burns investing in the house awesome good to see casey here all right guys enjoy the rest of your evening and i will see you on the next video
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