Bill Ackman Says "Fed Must Hike Rates!!" (What Happens If They Do?)

요약 보기

첫째, 이 영상의 결론: 빌 애크먼의 연준 긴축 촉구를 계기로 금리 인상과 양적완화(QE) 축소가 주식·자산 가격에 부담이 될 수 있다는 진행자의 우려가 중심이다. 애크먼 발언 배경: 애크먼은 연준이 즉시 테이퍼링을 시작하고 금리를 빨리 올려야 한다고 주장했으며, 연준 뉴욕지점 면담 사실도 언급됐다. 진행자는 그가 2020년 3월 코로나 시기에는 돈 찍기를 요구했던 점을 들어 일관성이 없다고 비판했다. 시장 기대: 시장은 2021년 11월 FOMC에서 테이퍼링 발표와 2022년 6월 금리 인상 가능성(약 87%)을 반영하고 있다고 인용됐다. 진행자는 이를 과도하다고 보며 반대 베팅을 고려할 수 있다고 말했다. 자산·경제 영향: QE 축소는 긴축 신호로 받아들여져 위험자산 매도를 부를 수 있고, 401k와 주택 자산 가치 하락으로 이어질 수 있다고 주장했다. 금리 상승 시 주택담보·신용카드·기업 부채 비용이 커져 기업 이익과 주가에 부담이 된다는 논리다. 인플레이션 해석: 진행자는 인플레이션이 경기 과열의 증거라는 시장 통념에 반대하며, 부채 수준이 역대 최고인 상황에서 인플레이션은 경제가 취약하다는 신호일 수 있다고 봤다. 리스크와 조건: 진행자는 금리 정상화가 곧바로 주가 폭락을 뜻하지는 않으며 교차 요인이 많다고 단서를 달았다. 출연자 전망: 진행자는 금리 인상 시 위험자산(주식·암호화폐) 하방 압력이 크다고 봤다. 단, 영상은 구체적 종목 매수·매도 추천이나 목표가는 제시하지 않았다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. hello fellow rebel capitals hope you're well news story bill ackman in the news says that the fed needs to raise interest rates what are the probability or what is the probability that the fed raises rates and if they do what would that do to the stock market what would that do to asset prices and what would that do to the economy let's think this through first going to a story from cnbc bill ackman calls for fed to start raising interest rates as soon as possible now in a moment we're going to go over the time frame even if they wanted to raise rates they couldn't do it i guess they could but they're not going to do it immediately because they got to reduce the size of their balance sheet or they'd have to first reduce the size of qe then they would have to reduce the size of their balance sheet then they would have to go ahead and raise rates because if you're raising rates i guess they would have to reduce the size of their balance sheet so much but they would definitely have to stop qe because if they're doing qe end their raising rates that doesn't make a lot of sense not that anything they do makes a lot of sense let me be clear so the bullet points billionaire hedge fund manager ackman called for fed raise rates and start cutting its monthly asset purchases immediately okay so again i i don't know if they're going to do this simultaneously because that would be a double whammy of tightening you would have a tightening and and i want to be very clear i'm not saying that this would reduce the amount of dollars in circulation i'm not really saying there would be a causal a direct causal effect but indirectly i think this would be significant as far as them reducing their asset purchases because of the psychology involved because of expectation policy and then with them raising the overnight rate if that trickles through into the long rates the 10 and 30 year then that will definitely have an impact on the economy because the price of debt increases therefore the monthly payments for new homes being purchased increases therefore the purchasing power goes down we see that not with houses credit cards autos etc we are continuing to dance while the music is playing and it's time to turn down the music and settle down he said in a tweet okay i mean again let's keep in mind that that ackman was almost in tears on cnbc in march of 2020 saying that the fed and the government need to come in and print money i mean i'm i'm not using that term correctly i'm using that to term loosely you guys know what i'm referring to you guys know that the nuance there but what the what the normies and the average joe and jane would consider money printing aquin comes out march 2020 almost in tears and says we got to print money they got to come in they got to bail out they got to bail out they got to bail out they got to do something fed put government put anything and now all these a sudden he's saying oh we've got too much inflation okay i mean i agree you got to change your opinion when the facts change but i think he could be a little more intellectually consistent let's say he's not exactly ron paul so he said this during a couple tweets with uh he's got 13 billion under management let's read his specific tweet i gave a presentation new york fed to the federal reserve bank of new york last week to share our view on inflation and fed policy okay oh all right that that's isn't that weird like the fed has 900 phds working for them and yet they're reaching out to ackman who's a hedge fund manager as far as i know he's not really an expert on global macro and he's really a bottoms up guy and they're saying hey ackman can you come in and give us your feedback on whether or not we should raise rates i mean what this makes absolutely no sense to me the bottom line we think the fed should taper immediately and begin raising rates as soon as possible for ackman insisting on a taper isn't anything radical investors widely expect fomc on wednesday to announce it'll soon or that it soon will start pulling back on its monthly asset purchase program in which fed is buying 120 billion of bonds markets are looking for monthly pullback at 10 billion in treasuries 5 billion so 15 billion in total would you take down that's still staggering amounts of quantitative easing possibly starting in november and concluding in the summer of 2022 so what they're saying is they could reduce qe down to zero by the summer of 22 but most of you watching this video understand how that would most likely impact the stock market and unfortunately now our entire economy revolves around the stock market and asset prices and so to assume that stocks would just stay at their current levels if the fed was doing zero dollars a month in qe and again i'm not saying there's a direct causal effect i'm saying subconsciously and this is why go back and look at the fed's balance sheet and then look at the stock market in nominal terms you see that there's a lot of correlation there so if they started reducing it the market sees that as tightening therefore they want to get out of risk assets that be stocks you see the price is going down the price of stocks goes down significantly that's going to have a massive impact on the real economy because now so much of our purchasing power is in our 401k or is in our home equity and that is the sign of a very weak unstable economy but unfortunately that's where we are right now fed officials have stressed the initiation of tapering shouldn't be construed as a path to rate hikes and this is how they're managing that expectation expectations policy basically saying okay guys although we may reduce the size of our qe don't think that we're going to raise rates so why would they come out with such a tentative approach because they know the stock market is their faberge egg if you will and they're going to treat it with kid gloves and they're going to make sure they don't do anything to disrupt their precious stock market because again they know that the majority of consumption or let's say aggregate demand to use a keynesian term is a result of asset prices staying wildly elevated if not increasing even more in this mania in hysteria that we've been seeing especially since the lows in march of 2020.

02. traders lately have been pricing more aggressive moves with futures contracts pointing at at least two-quarter percentage point rate hikes in 2022 and i i wanted to kind of ref or contrast this to a zero hedge article and this is euro dollar flattening carnage as rate hike odds spike so i'm not going to go through all the technical analysis here uh not like charting but the technical verbiage and esoteric speak let's just get down to the nitty gritty they say what does this mean practically well the weakness in euro dollar futures which set in following the raft of u.s data at 8 30 a.m eastern time has seen rate hike odds jump from 20 excuse me has seen rate hike odds jump for 2022 and 2023 and the market is now pricing in the odds of a june 20 2022 rate hike as high as 87 probability so i'm sure a lot of you watching this video right now have kind of scratched your head and said hmm i wonder why gold isn't taking off this could be one reason why gold is not taking off if the market is setting the probability of a rate hike as soon as june 2022 at 87 percent personally i think the market is way off sides there and if i were a trader which i'm not i would try to take the other side of this bet but going back to the cnbc article another tweet from akman as we have previously disclosed we have put our money where our mouth is we're hedging exposure to an upward move in rates as we believe that rise in rates could negatively impact our long our long-only equity portfolio so remember guys if you have a 401k if you have a stock portfolio if you have a cryptocurrency even and i know a lot of you might not like to hear this but if interest rates go to five six seven eight percent if they quote unquote normalize that is going to put massive downward pressure on home equity or home prices it's gonna put massive downward pressure on uh risk assets including cryptocurrencies and uh also the stock market now i'm not saying that that means the prices are going to absolutely tank because as you guys know there are no easy answers to complex questions there are a lot of cross currents involved here but that would add a significant headwind let's say to the price of these risk assets more importantly i think the takeaway here is to illustrate my point and that is if we do get some reduced amounts of quantitative easing if they're able to somehow get the quantitative easing back down to zero i don't see a path in which they could do that that didn't result in the stock market going down by a degree that would be so significant it would make them reverse course maybe i'm wrong because well let me get i wanted to point this out because see the market still views inflation as some sort of uh signpost that the economy is booming uh and i i can't understand how they can make this mistake because those are conflating two things that could be uh complete opposites you could see inflation but yet that could be a result of an economy performing very poorly and this is one of the the first signs of hyperinflation that means that dollars are increasing but yet the amount of goods and services produced decreasing so that would be negative real growth so just because we have inflation it doesn't necessarily mean that we have a booming economy or the economic output is expanding and this is a mistake that i see these talking heads and economists and hedge fund managers make all the time so my point is the market thinks that if we raise rates well that if we raise rates to combat inflation that might not be a big deal because the economy is booming so much and this is reflected through the rates of inflation that it can handle the much higher interest rates that's how they see this but in reality i think those higher rates are going to crush the economy even more so then the economy is being crushed right now as we speak in october 2021.

03. you look at the debt consumer debt all-time high corporate debt all-time high sovereign debt all-time high and then you think about how precarious the american consumer is right now and do you really think that they could afford for their mortgage payments to go up or for new buyers for their mortgage payment to go up and they could still afford the same amount of house you really think they could afford the same amount of car vehicle price do you think that they could afford putting the same amount on their credit cards those interest rates spike the answer in my opinion is absolutely no and then for those who didn't have term debt there that didn't have fixed rate debt excuse me like a lot of these commercial loans you know they're going to have to roll that over and they roll that over from 3 up to eight percent what does that look like for their bottom line and it's the same thing with these corporations they're borrowing money all the time so if money goes to eight percent that's more expensive that means it takes more of their profit to service the debt and even if the p e ratios stay the same that means that their share price should go down so interest rates go up and i don't think the economy is strong enough to handle it i think that the rate of inflation shows not that the economy is booming but the economy is incredibly sick okay we got a super chat here rich piana is my favorite okay thanks for the info there just said that guy's his favorite natural bodybuilder all righty then okay we got uh eloka hoye doing a super chat thank you very much guys enjoy the rest of your evening afternoon and always stand up fight for freedom liberty and free market capitalism that's what we need guys free market capitalism we'll see in the next video