Peter Schiff Just Called Me...Here's What He Said

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결론: 금리 상승 시 기관의 주택 임대 포트폴리오 매각 가능성이 커져 주택 공급 과잉과 가격 하락을 촉발할 수 있다는 주장. [핵심 주장] 주택시장은 공급 측면이 중요하며, 저가 주택(3베드 2베드 1500sqft)은 미국 대부분 지역에서 이익을 내며 짓기 어렵다. [Schiff 코멘트] 영상에서 부각되지 않은 핵심은 금리 상승 시 블랙스톤 등 대형 펀드의 부채 차환 비용이 급등해 임대수익률(5%)이 사라질 수 있다는 점이다. 이 경우 투자자 압박으로 대량 매각이 나올 수 있다. [근거 수치] 2021년 기준 미국 매물 주택 약 50만 채 vs 펀드 보유 약 8만 채 → 매각 시 가격 결정 한계 영향 큼. 회사당 8만 채·17,000채 언급, 전체 주택 약 1억 5천만 채 언급. [금리 시나리오] 2021년 말 Moody's AAA 회사채 수익률 약 2.45~2.48%에서 4.26%로 상승 가정 시 임대수익 1% 수준으로 하락. 미국 10년물은 약 3%에서 5~6%로 오를 경우 채권이 매력적으로 전환될 수 있다고 설명. [가격 전망] 전국 주택가격이 연 5~10% 하락하면 수년간 복리로 큰 폭 하락. 인플레이션 동반 시 실질 하락은 더 빠름. 다만 진행자는 주택시장 폭락을 단정하지 않으며 여러 상충 요인을 고려해야 한다고 강조. [기타] 노동 공급 측면에서 주식·암호화폐 하락 시 노동 시장 잉여로 전환 가능성 언급. 다음 주 내 Brent Johnson과 Peter Schiff의 달러 관련 토론 예고. [리스크] 주택 가격 하락 시 건설·금융 부문 영향, 금리 상승 자체의 불확실성.

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01. hello fellow rebel capitalists hope you're well just got off the phone with my good buddy peter schiff and he wanted to make some comments on my last whiteboard video on the housing market he said he did a couple comments as himself on the the video but i don't have the opportunity to read most of them so i wanted to go over what he said because he made some great points and i wanted to also kind of give a teaser he called me for two reasons one to give me some feedback on the recent video that i made and then number two to set up another discussion between him and brent johnson about what is happening to the dollar right now and what will most likely happen throughout the rest of 2022 so uh brent's more than happy to talk to peter we're all pretty good friends so peter just asked if i'd set that up so we could do it on my channel so uh we'll get that done probably the next two or three weeks so stay tuned for that but let's get back to um the comments peter was making on my whiteboard video the one that on the real estate market specifically he was talking about the step i did where i think this was step number two yes i think it was number two where i was talking about a catalyst that would prompt these large funds that have bought just an epic amount of single-family homes to use as rental properties what would prompt them to sell and i'm referring to groups like blackstone and uh some of the entities that blackstone has bought and sold shares of like uh what was it something with an eye identity it's not identity homes i got a i got woke identity politics on the mind it's uh something like that you guys it's something homes and uh they owned 80 000 properties and i think they sold those shares blackstone didn't then they just bought shares of a company that owns i think 17 000 single-family properties but uh you know we always talk about the supply side of the equation with real estate right now and it is true on the high end you can create a lot of additional supply that won't be a problem because they can still produce those homes at a profit but at the low end with these starter homes the three bed two bath 1500 square foot house you can't build those today at a profit pretty much anywhere in the united states so how do we get more supply to create a more balanced or to create greater balance between the demand and supply equation well if these hedge funds or private equity funds sold their homes and they had to do that quickly that would bring down nominal prices that would increase supply to a point where assuming aggregate demand was the same or i think it's probably going lower that would lead to lower prices pretty quick not that we'd have a crash because that takes a long time but i'm talking about housing prices in aggregate total across the united states coming down by 5 10 something like that per year now once you compound that that becomes a big number over three or four years especially when you add on the fact that we'd probably be getting significant consumer price inflation so if we have nominal prices go down they'll be going down even faster in real terms the point that the first point that i made on the video or the first catalyst that i saw and i discussed this with alfonso you know macro alf is the gentleman run at 20 he ran a 20 billion dollar fund and he just retired you know maybe six months ago but we said that if the ten year gets up to call it five six percent and let's just say they're making a cash or return on their rental portfolio this could incentivize them to sell because now they've got an asset that's far better risk reward especially if that asset's going down in price because the argument there is going to be well the homes are still better because it's going to be somewhat of an inflation hedge and if they were to transition into the 10-year treasury even at a five or six percent yield there's a huge negative real rate they're still losing purchasing power but if you've got nominal prices going down especially the market and their investors expect housing prices to continue to go down if we went into that trend now the sudden you're holding an asset that's throwing off five percent but the you're losing you're getting a capital uh loss right the homes are depreciating in value they're going down in nominal terms then that ten year at six percent even if it had a negative yield would be a lot more attractive from a standpoint of risk reward so that that transition of uh that transition could happen pretty quickly if we get into that environment where the 10-year goes up in yield goes down in price but another thing that i discussed just briefly is if investors start demanding that the blackrocks of the world sell their position in real estate oh now what could do this uh well if the real estate market's going down that could sure do it but one of the things that i briefly addressed and and peter thought that i should go over this or i should have gone over this more extensively is if rates are going up blackrock in these big investment firms they're not taking out mortgages to buy these single-family homes they're taking on corporate debt and this corporate debt you know whether they're selling bonds or just who knows getting a loan in the other way the bottom line is this debt that they're taking on it's not a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage meaning that the rates fluctuate and now who knows maybe they got a two-year term something like that but these rates adjust so if their positive cash flow equals a five percent yield right now okay well that's when they took on all this debt to buy the homes in the first place and let's for a moment here look at corporate debt or corporate interest rates here on corporate debt so this is the interest rate that they have to pay so this would be moody's seasoned aaa corporate bond yield there we go so this is roughly what the black stones of the world could borrow for so back last year was 2.5 2.48 2.45 percent so if you're borrowing at 2.45 percent to buy 80 000 homes and i know i'm using i'm kind of taking it to an extreme here i realized they probably didn't buy all 80 000 of those homes that was a different company i know i'm kind of going back and forth here but i'm just doing this for the concept if they bought 80 000 uh worth of homes at two point and borrowed let's say 50 of the purchase price for 2.45 percent and now all of a sudden let's say that they had to refi or they had to just uh roll over the debt at 4.26 what happens to your five percent yield it vanishes very very quickly and then uh we were discussing the options of rental yields at five percent the real estate portfolio or the 10-year treasury at six but now all of a sudden we could be talking about the difference between a one percent yield on your rental portfolio because your cost of debt has gone up so much compared to maybe a three percent it which is where the ten year is pretty much trading right now so again this could along with the investors really pushing the fund managers at blackstone or these other large pools of money or buying rental properties it could push the investors to say hey you fund manager you need to get rid of this real estate asap because of all of these reasons the yield is going down so our debt is going up maybe nominal prices are going down and we want you to hit the bid asap so then what do they do they take the 80 000 homes and not all at once but they liquidate well what does that do that adds supply now i mentioned this on the video as well that most people look at those 80 000 homes and they say ah george that's not enough to really move the needle because there's 150 million homes in the united states and that's just a drop in the bucket and that is true uh in my video i just guessed that there was about 50 million i was using that as a number but i talked to hartman and he he set me straight he's like no it's way off there's like 150 million i'm like okay well luckily on the video i didn't say that was an accurate number i was just using that for the for the illustration of the point but that's the argument most people would make let's just drop in the bucket because it's only 80 000 homes but then you look at how many homes are usually for sale at any given time in the united states and that's about five hundred thousand if you look back at 2021 so if you're if you've got 500 000 homes for sale and you're dumping 80 000 homes that's going to massively impact the price for all 150 million homes because the price is being set way out on the margin if you want to say that right that the price is really depend for the overall housing stock is dependent upon the supply demand equation for what the existing set or for the number of existing sales i think that's another way of looking at it so you guys get what i'm referring to so this was schiff's point that or one of his main points is that i should have emphasized that a lot more that if rates go up these big funds have to roll over their debt at a much higher interest rate yield goes down this will increase the probability of them selling all of that supply back into the market and because there's only 500 000 homes for sale roughly at any given time this could take us from a supply shortage to a supply surplus very quickly just like i've argued in in other videos that we could go from a labor shortage to a labor surplus very quickly as well if stocks and cryptocurrencies continue to go down because i think that's one of the main reasons so many of these people have chosen not to go back to work after the cerveza sickness so really interesting points from my butter my buddy uh peter schiff and i'm i'm really glad he called that and brought that to my attention because that's something although i addressed it just for a moment on my video in future videos i think i can incorporate that as to another argument for the real estate market facing some headwinds in the very near future that doesn't mean that i'm predicting that the housing market will go down or we'll have a crash as you guys know i always believe there's all these cross currents happening at the same time and there's headwinds and there's also tailwinds and we need to be cognizant of all the factors at play so then we can determine the prob probabilities of x y z happening in the future on our own that's what this channel is all about above and beyond freedom liberty and free market capitalism it's about helping you and encouraging you to do the critical thinking and to do the research and think in terms of probabilities not certainties but to do that on your own all right guys enjoy the rest of your afternoon as always make sure that you're standing up for freedom liberty free market capitalism see in the next video