저자: RebelCapitalist · 외국인
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결론: 미국 PPI 상승 발표에도 불구하고 전년 대비 인플레이션은 하락 추세이므로 디스인플레이션 견해를 유지한다. 주제: 미국 PPI(생산자물가) 발표 - 11월 PPI 전월 대비 0.3% 상승으로 예상치 상회, 전년 대비 7.4%(10월 약 8%에서 하락) - 채소 가격 38% 급등이 상승 요인, 에너지 가격 3.3% 하락으로 상쇄 - 10년물 국채금리가 발표 후 상승, 채권시장도 놀람 주제: 인플레이션 경로 및 Peter Schiff 주장 평가 - Peter Schiff는 실질금리가 플러스가 될 때까지 연준이 인플레이션을 잡지 못한다고 주장 - 연준 기준금리 8%까지 필요하다는 가정은 발표자의 기본 시나리오가 아님 - PPI 전년비 고점 11.7%에서 7.4%로 내려온 점은 디스인플레이션 근거 주제: 연준 및 향후 전망 - 발표 후 CNBC 등에서 다음 주 연준 50bp 인상 가능성 언급, 긴축 지속 전망 - 소비자물가는 점진적으로 연준 목표치에 근접할 것이라는 견해에 일부 동의 - 다만 목표치 복귀는 대규모 경기침체나 블랙스완급 충격이 있어야 가능하며, 그 경우 1947년처럼 디플레이션(마이너스)까지 갈 수 있다고 봄 주제: 미시간대 소비자심리지수 - 11월 확정치 59.1로 예상치(56.5)와 전월(56.8)을 상회 - 1년 기대인플레이션은 4.6%로 한 달 전보다 하락 - 소비자는 여전히 물가를 걱정하지만 상승률 둔화를 체감하는 것으로 해석 주제: 투자 조건 및 리스크 - 발표자는 채권시장(10년물 금리) 움직임을 중시 - 주요 리스크: 물가 재가속 가능성, 연준 추가 긴축, 경기침체 또는 블랙스완 이벤트 주제: 출연자 전망 - 향후 1~2분기(2023년 Q1~Q2) 디스인플레이션 진행 전망 유지 - 언급 종목·자산 방향에 대한 구체적 매매 권고 없음
다듬은 글
hello for the rebel capitals hope you're well so my good buddy Peter Schiff has been saying since day one that the FED isn't going to be able to tame inflation until they take rates to where they're positive in real terms so if inflation is running at 7.7 that means the FED would have to take fed funds up to eight percent let's say in order to bring inflation back to its knees to tame inflation as they say now this is not my base case as you guys know I'm kind of in the the disinflation camp at least for the next and I'll call it into q1 or Q2 of 2023 but we just had an inflation report come out today now this is not the CPI this is the PPI numbers but a surprise to the upside indicating that maybe we might not be in for as much disinflation as George Gammon thought maybe and I'm I'm open being wrong of course so let's dive into the story and check out what is going on with inflation here we go headline wholesale prices Rose Point three percent in November more than expected despite hopes that inflation is Cooling and before I did this story believe it or not I actually did a little bit of research and I looked at the 10-year Treasury and the 10-year treasury is actually up as far as the yield on this news so it's not just the market you know these Talking Heads or analysts being surprised it's actually the bond market and the bond market is what I personally like to pay attention to so the PPI or producer Price Index a measure of what companies get for their products in the pipeline so this is the the input costs to what the retail investor the products the retail investor buys increase 0.3 percent for the month and 7.4 percent from a year ago a 38 surge in wholesale vegetable prices help push up the cost index by 3.3 percent offsetting an identical 3.3 percent decline in energy costs markets now will turn their attention to the more closely watched CPI which put this in your calendar guys is out Tuesday morning so here's a chart of the year over year percentage change in the producer Price Index so it peaked out at 11 geez 11.7 I didn't know it got that high and now it's down to 7.4 so I think this is some evidence will give Peter credit where credit is due uh this may suggest that we're not in disinflation but on the other hand uh looking at my base case I get it that it's higher than expectations but it's still down so it's still down let's say October we're at eight so November we're at 7.4 you get what I'm saying um again higher than expectations but the bottom line is it's still down and uh that's the camp that I was in I I wasn't in the camp of okay it's gonna go down and it's going to also be lower or on par with expectations my my thesis had nothing to do with expectations whatsoever my thesis was simply that the CPI and or inflation General would actually come down regardless of what the Talking Heads think so I'll give myself a little credit there hot inflation data keeps fed on track from the rate hike increase likely uh 50 basis point hike that would push push Benchmark rates okay yeah we know that's going to happen tell me something we don't know CNBC they're talking about what the FED will most likely do next week monthly increase in producer prices illustrates the need for continuing continued tightening albeit at a slower pace said Jeffrey roach okay so there again I need to clarify I guess the month over month increased but the year over year was down and again when I made my prediction uh one of the few predictions that I made as far as deep disinflation I was talking about the uh the year over year the inflation pipeline is clearing consumer prices will slowly move closer to the fed's long-run Target okay I guess I kind of agree with that but what I don't agree with is that uh prices will come down to the fed's Target unless we get a massive recession or kind of an economic crisis slash Black Swan then if we get that I think it could not only get down to the fed's Target but it could go negative which is exactly what we saw in the 1940s when in 1947 the CPI hit 19 points was it seven percent and within a year or two it was down to negative two in other news University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment came in higher than expected registered a 59.1 reading against the Dow estimate Dow Jones estimate for 56.5 and Below November's 56.8 one year inflation expectations also moved lower falling to 4.6 point three percent below a month ago so we see prices going up slightly month over month every year is still down and the consumer is still worried about inflation but it seems like they're seeing uh the rate of increases slow or at least that's what they're predicting based on what they see at the grocery store paying their rent paying their insurance basically just living like a normal person and paying your bills all right guys enjoy the rest of your afternoon as always make sure that you're standing up for Freedom Liberty free market capitalism we'll see in the next video
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