저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
Chamath는 자신이 과거 Uber·Slack 등에 대한 투자 기회를 놓쳐 막대한 손실을 봤다고 회고하고, 전통적 벤처 펀드 구조가 수수료 중심으로 왜곡돼 있다고 비판한다. 그는 Slack이 Facebook 이후 본 최고의 비즈니스 모델이며 곧 상장할 것으로 보고, 직상장 결정과 CEO Stuart Butterfield의 운영을 높이 평가한다. Zoom을 차선으로 꼽는다. 엔터프라이즈 소프트웨어는 과잉 투자·과잉 채용으로 장기 수익성 확보가 어렵고, Slack·Zoom 등 일부 예외를 제외하면 투자 가치가 낮다고 본다. 대신 Facebook·Google·Amazon·Microsoft 같은 소비자·플랫폼 기업이 현금창출 대비 합리적 밸류에이션이라고 주장한다. 반면 일부 소비자 기업은 수익성 로드맵이 불투명하다는 지적이 있으며, 그는 투자자들이 늦게 몰리는 경향이 있다고 답한다. 대상 자산 중 개별 가격 방향을 명시한 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
you're still going to look for these exciting new things but you're going to do it on your own time frame you're not going to you're going to hold them as long as you have to hold them to realize whatever you'd like to realize and not to hold into anybody else who's pushing you to do that in fact and you know the the learning on this was was one that has frankly cost me billions of dollars personally you know there was opportunities for us to invest in uber all the way into the series you know b i remember when uh menlo called and benchmark and you know on a sunday night just put in 10 million dollars and which would have turned out to be a multi-billion dollar piece and i said no because i didn't understand how an investment like that could sit inside of a very traditional venture portfolio that was my mistake i've made similar mistakes like that in in the past you know one of our biggest investments in a is a company called slack and i still think to myself why did we not just lead every single round and write the entirety of the fund into that company it was obvious from day one that stuart butterfield is an iconic ceo and that slack is going to be one of the most important tech companies in the world the reason i didn't do it scott was because i was running a fund and i had employees and i needed to generate fees and these funds had lps all these mechanics and guardrails that were not necessarily coupled with making the most amount of money it was coupled with the business model of being in the investment life cycle and having the freedom now to step away from it i took it and i think it's an incredibly exciting time for me personally although it can be very jarring and upsetting for those investors who now have to go and find other places probably not as good to allocate their money you brought up slack so so let's go there what you you own 10 of the company you're you're on the board i know you're limited about what you can say as a result of all of that but when can we expect it and why the direct listing and do you agree with that decision i love it i mean i i think that the decision making that stuart has taken is incredible both in the way that he's built the company he's transforming the culture he understands the product to a level of sophistication that i have not seen since facebook you know when i was in the bowels of facebook building that machinery what i saw was a team that really understood product market fit and the power of network effects and why that created an incredibly subsidized business thing a thing that could expand all over the world at marginally zero cost the only company in the world that looks like that today that is not yet public is called slack and it will be soon and so from that perspective i think it is the most incredible business that we have seen probably the next closest thing to it is a company that just went public recently which is zoom so we obviously talk a lot about you know these these hot new ipos coming to market valuations you know some suggest you know some are getting a little over their skis the way that these numbers have been pushed up do you agree with that you look at all of these that have come out recently so look another big reason why you know i took a step back from the traditional investing game is that that game is in part rigged but it's also in part fundamentally broken why because as you raise more and more funds with the goal of just generating fees you need to allocate those into companies that are seemingly reasonable where you won't lose your job what that's resulted over the last five years is an enormous glut of money that has gone into enterprise software businesses why because there isn't this binary product market fit risk bet there's some revenue you're selling a product to a customer who's willing to pay for it but the dirty underbelly of all enterprise businesses is that you spend an enormous amount of money on sales and marketing so much so that right now most of those companies have no line of sight to being profitable and some of those companies are actually gross margin negative and they're all raising capital from venture capitalists on the back of this idea of growth growth growth growth now i look at that and i say to myself all of these venture investors are telling me that because they like enterprise i actually should take a step back when they are greedy i am fearful i particularly don't like the enterprise space x of slack and probably zoom and there's maybe a handful of others around the edges but beyond that i would not put a single dollar in enterprise it is overbuilt it's over invested they're highly highly unprofitable and the real winner is facebook google amazon and microsoft so from my perspective the actual companies of value right now are consumer look at the multiples of facebook for the amount of cash they generate look at the multiples of google look at amazon themselves those are incredible businesses that you can own which are much much better bets well you're you're describing sort of obviously well established and thriving businesses i'm somewhat surprised to hear you say that the enterprise side is the one that's overvalued whereas the consumer side because investments reasonably valued when a lot of the consumer companies are not profitable and have no road map really to profitability i think the conventional wisdom there is is is a little miss set again i think that right now investors have a tendency to be late to the party and when the music is on as my friend bill gurley says they love to dance and right now the enterprise world is the one where investors can look smart enough to their lps to raise subsequent funds which is really a backdoor mechanism to just generate more fees and pay themselves a salary and so enterprise as a class is very challenged there are a few like slack which are exemplary but most we will find are incredibly overbuilt overstaffed very difficult to get to long-term sustainable profitability without being acquired by the big stalwart enterprise companies i mean there's a there's a you know snowflake is is one that's that's hanging out there we discussed it with our multitude of of guests yesterday that's in the the enterprise
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