저자: 캐시우드 · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 비트코인이 디지털 통화의 새로운 자산군으로서 장기적으로 크게 성장할 것이라고 주장하며, 이를 위해 현물 비트코인 ETF 승인이 임박했다고 본다. [SEC 및 규제 관련] SEC 연구진과 만났으며, 암호화폐 연구진이 매우 똑똑하고 블록체인 기술을 잘 이해한다고 평가함. 당국 내 정치적 요인(게리 겐들러 위원장의 재무장관 야망 등)이 ETF 승인을 지연시키고 있다고 주장. 선물 ETF는 상대방 위험이 있으나 현물 ETF는 콜드스토리지 보관으로 상대방 위험이 없다고 설명. SEC가 그레이스케일 소송에서 패소한 것도 언급. [ETF 승인 전망] 여러 발행사가 동시에 승인될 가능성을 언급하며, 먼저 승인받은 ETF가 유동성과 자산을 대부분 가져간다고 봄. SEC가 한 곳만 선택하면 승자를 고르는 셈이 되며, 결국 마케팅 경쟁이 될 것이라고 전망. [파트너 및 리서치] 스위스 기반 21Shares가 파트너이며, 세계 최대 크립토 ETP 제공업체(운용자산 10억 달러 이상)라고 소개. 2015년 비트코인 리서치 논문에서 통화의 세 가지 기능 수행 가능성을 분석했으며, 경제학자 아트 래퍼와 공동 작업함. [거시·장기 견해] 래퍼는 비트코인을 규칙 기반·글로벌·디지털·민간 통화 시스템의 출발점으로 보며, 1913년 이전 민간 화폐 시대로의 회귀로 평가. 달러는 1913년 연준 설립 이후 98% 가치가 하락했다고 주장. 2030년 전체 크립토 시장 25조 달러 추정, 이 중 비트코인이 절반 이상 차지 가능하다고 전망(현재 시총 약 5천억 달러, 2030년 12.5조 달러 이상). 블랙록-코인베이스 계약 등 기관 수용이 확대되고 있다고 평가. [리스크·정치] 2024년 선거 이슈가 될 것이며, 달러 기축통화 지위를 위협한다는 반대 세력 존재. [종목·자산별 가격 방향 언급] 비트코인: 장기적으로 상승 전망, 단기(1~3개월) 가격 방향 명시 없음. [출연자 전망] 캐시 우드는 비트코인 장기 성장에 강한 낙관론을 유지.
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you know we have met the research people at the SEC the Bitcoin and crypto research people they know what they're talking about they are really smart the head of finhub who reports to Chairman gendler is really smart she's a a a scientist by background and just really understands what blockchain technology Bitcoin is all about so I think he's he's got great research hey guys welcome back to Everyday Finance in this video Kathy would discuss about Bitcoin and Market Kathy Wood says blockchain ITF Arc is currently on the waiting list black R is there there are many players waiting and nobody seems to understand what's going on I just saw the other day when gansler questioned the Congress saying man just do something you know but what's going on there we've met the research staff at the SC C the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency research staff and they know what they're talking about and are really smart we've also met the head of f Hub who Gary gendler personally I believe it has been political he reportedly wants to be the Secretary of the Treasury what does the treasury do what is its mandate it has crossed our minds that he would prefer a central bank currency rather than Bitcoin but the SEC approved a Bitcoin Futures ETF which actually has counterparty risk whereas a Bitcoin spot ETF would have no counterparty risk hours for example would be backed by Bitcoin in Cold Storage at coinbase where there is no counterparty risk Bitcoin Futures ETF what and that's why the SEC lost the gray case and lots of things Kathy would discuss so please watch the video to end and like share subscribe our Channel everyday Finance thanks and and just if I can say we learned a lot about the person Elon Musk during that that time I think he is a very he he has obviously very high standards he's a very tough tough boss and Taskmaster but he is a good person he is a really good person and you know a lot of people think that he might be arrogant I don't think so at all when he respects people he will say to them as he says said to us then he said look you know the the most important thing you can do for me when we thanked him for doing the interview is you know if you see that we are making a mistake somehow in terms of our go to market or or what whatever tell us you know we will listen to you we will listen to the feedback and you know that he means it because he monitors Twitter and certainly in the early days he did to see what might be going wrong with his cars so he's a good person and uh obviously brilliant and and thoughtful you know we have met the research people at the SEC the Bitcoin and crypto research people they know what they're talking about they are really smart the head of finhub who reports to Chairman gendler is really smart she's a a a scientist by background and just really understands what blockchain technology Bitcoin is all about so I think he's he's got great research I think this is Gary gendler personally I think it's been political he rumor has it he would like to be treasury secretary what does the treasury look over what is its mandate one of its most important mandates is the sanctity of the US dollar so could it be you know that he would prefer a central bank currency as opposed to bitcoin that has uh gone through our minds but when the SEC approved a Bitcoin Futures ETF which actually has counterparty risk a Bitcoin spot ETF would have no counterparty risk ours for example would be backed by Bitcoin in Cold Storage at coinbase no counterparty risk there Bitcoin Futures ETF what H that's why the SEC lost the grayscale case so I think this is more about Gary gendler got it and maybe his political Ambitions but I I think the judicial branch of our government the legislative branch of our government is in our checks and balances system that's what makes America great in a way it often puts us in gridlock but there are checks and balances and he really is appointed by the exe executive branch and these other two branches are now weighing in and you know he is beginning to call the Bitcoin ETF his personal Vietnam which means it's a problem that he need he he needs to get out of it I I think he's he's now even backed away and said well you know I'm not the only decision maker here there are five of us so course so we think we think there's movement on the way and that it will happen I think they'll approve a number at the same time because the history of ETFs is the ETF that gets there first will have the most liquidity and will gather most of the assets even in the gold example the second one in line I think its fee structure is half still the first one and it has not been able to gain traction nothing like the GLD I think that SEC they'd be picking a winner if they picked just one it's going to end up being a marketing War if I might say or battle you know of course we're hoping I I don't know if you know this but 21 shares is our partner 21 shares is based in Switzerland it is the largest crypto ETP provider in the world more than a billion dollars in AUM so it's infrastructure and Regulatory network is are fantastic we're leveraging off of those they're leveraging off of our research active management and our brand certainly in the United States we hope that our research which we started our first Bitcoin paper was in 2015 and the question was can it solve serve as the three roles of money and we did that in collaboration with art laugher who is so excited about Bitcoin right 83 years old a monetary scholar and he said to me back then when we wrote that paper with him he said I've been waiting for this since since the US closed the gold window since monetary policy became unhinged this is what I've been waiting for a rules-based monetary system and this is global it's digital it's private no human intervention this is amazing so he thinks that it is the first sign that we could be going back to a time preed so pre 1913 of private money private money's competing against one another and he thinks that will bring real discipline into the system back into the system and will represent a leap for freedom from some of the he would suggest hostile monetary policies that have taken the dollar down by 98% since the FED started I think it's going to be an election year issue there are real proponents and then there are those who who are saying stay away from this you know this will will take away the US Dollars role as the reserve currency of the world so you have that battle going on you have younger people really supportive you have people like me with an economics background really even more important much more important like art laugher out there now starting to evangelize for this as I said art is 83 he seem seen a a lot of economic history and he's a student of economic history we're going to have a Bitcoin brainstorm with him I think in a few weeks and what he wants to do to help people like the ones you're talking about to help bring them along is he as an economist and as I'm going to say as somewhat new to the topic he is going to try and and poke holes the holes that all of you know the people you're talking to who are not quite on board or not at all on board he wants to help them understand the cryptography behind it and he wants to help them understand and these five World words or each one of them is very important it is the first Global very important digital private no government oversight rules based that's probably the most important one monetary system in history this is a very big idea and if we are right and our $25 trillion estimate for all of crypto by 2030 is correct we think that Bitcoin will account for more than half of that right now Bitcoin is roughly $500 billion do in market cap so 12.5 trillion plus by 2030 our confidence there is growing especially now that institutional acceptance is beginning when Black Rock struck deal with coinbase that woke a lot of institutional investors and I will say kudos to Cambridge Associates an Institutional research organization it in 2018 said to institutions look you may not like this thing called Bitcoin but you better have a good explanation for why you don't like it because we believe it is the first asset in a new asset class
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