저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 캐나다 퍼시픽(CP)은 내재가치 83달러 대비 현재가가 낮아 저평가로 보이나, 발표자 본인은 보유하지 않으며 20% 안전마진 기준 매수가 약 66달러 이하에서만 관심이 있다고 함. [사업·재무 실적] 매출은 2018년 53억 달러에서 2022년 65억 달러로 증가했고, 순이익은 14억 달러에서 26억 달러로 늘어 탑라인과 바텀라인이 함께 성장함. [재무 건전성] 현금은 약 4,500만 달러에서 4억 4,500만 달러로 10배 늘었으나, 총부채는 64억 달러에서 약 180억 달러로 3배 가까이 늘어 적신호로 지적됨. [경쟁사 비교] 올해 누적 총수익은 약 -3.5%로 경쟁사 중간 수준이며, 5년 누적 수익률은 82%로 CNI, UNP, CSX, NSC 등 경쟁사를 모두 상회함. [기관 수급] 기관 보유 비중은 약 67~68%이며, 12년간 약 50억 달러 순매도 대비 약 100억 달러 순매수로 기관이 더 많이 사고 있다고 설명함. [배당 안전성] 배당 안전성 점수는 76점이며, 시가총액은 약 670억 달러 대형주임. 2009년 경기침체 때 배당은 유지했으나 2012년 이후 배당 인상이 없었고, 최근 5년 배당 CAGR은 약 12%로 제시됨. 잉여현금흐름 대비 배당성향은 25~27%로 낮아 인상 여력이 있다고 봄. [재무 지표 우려] 투하자본이익률(ROIC)은 2021~2022년 10% 아래로 떨어졌고, 순부채/EBITDA는 2021년 4.99배에서 2022년 4.39배로 개선됐으나 여전히 높다고 평가함. 2020~2022년 주식 발행으로 희석이 발생한 점도 부정적으로 언급함. [밸류에이션] 멀티플 모델 77달러, 배당할인모델(DDM) 82달러, DCF 89달러이며 평균 내재가치는 83달러. 10% 안전마진 시 매수가 약 75달러 안팎, 15%는 70~71달러, 20%는 약 66달러로 제시됨. 선행 PER 23.4배는 업종 평균 17.4배보다 높음. [출연자 견해] 진행자는 CP 보유 계획이 없고, 20~25% 이상 안전마진이 생길 때만 고려한다고 밝힘. 월가는 12개월 내 목표가 89달러를 제시한다고 언급함. 진행자는 CNI와 UNP를 보유 중이라고 공개함.
다듬은 글
Canadian Pacific is a railway company which is held by one of the super investors of our time Bill Amman who has outperformed his peers over the last 5 years now Bill holds over 10% of his portfolio in Canadian pivic Kansas this stock however is down 4% year to date with a very small yield of 79% what we want to understand in today's episode is CP a stock we should be adding to our port P folio is there opportunity to see the share price double triple over the next few years and see this yield increase to hopefully a yield on cost in the double digit over the next 5 to 10 years and Beyond we're going to take a look at the Historical performance of the company Canadian Pacific we're going to jump into their income statements looking at their Topline revenue and bottom line net income growth we're also going to look at their balance sheet look at a quick health check total cash versus total debt we're also going to take a look at how they perform to some of their competitors very popular companies cni can Canadian National Railway CSX Northfolk Southern Union Pacific and look at their total return performance year-to date as well as the Last 5 Years and we're also going to see what our institutions doing are they buying or selling CP this is going to lead us nicely into the all important dividend safety some very important financial and dividend metrics you need to understand for this company and as always we will run it through our stock valuation model getting to our intrinsic value and our acceptable Buy price given our margin of safety now just because a super investor or investor holds a company it doesn't mean we should be adding it to our portfolio without understanding it and seeing whether or not we believe it to be a buy now year to date though down 4% with investors who have held the company over the last 10 years would have seen a very strong 173% growth return on investment this doesn't include those dividends reinvested nonetheless very very strong and today we want to understand can we expect the same over the next 10 years and if not significantly better returns now it is towards the mid to lower end of the 52 we range with a yield below 1% in a forward P of 26 or just shy of and let's see how the company has performed so income statement what we typically like to see year onye is around 3 to 7% growth December 2018 5 .3 billion on the top line December 2022 their latest annual report 6.5 billion so there is some growth over the last 5 years and on a more granular level we can see the increase on Revenue year on year although some years aren't particularly a large we will shortly look at the last 10 years percentage wise too but what we can see the revenue is growing now bottom line how does that compare well 1.4 billion reported on the bottom line net income 5 years later 2.6 billion so again the bottom line is also increasing in line in fact with the top line revenue and we can see on a more granular level the increases year on year so a fairly consistent essentially company which is always good to see Top Line and bottom line moving in the same direction which is positive growth year on-ear balance sheet total cash versus total debt December 2018 they held around 45 million of cash on the balance sheet latest quarterly report they are holding significantly more in fact 10 times more cash on the balance sheet at 445 million how does that compare to total debt numerically and directionally well what we can see total debt 6.4 billion in December 2018 latest quarter report just shy of 18 billion so almost three times as much growth of the total debt again whilst we do see a 10 times increase in the cash it does well essentially is very small in comparison to the increase in total debt so a slight red flag indic Ator which we'll touch upon when we look at our financial metrics now in terms of how they have they performed against their competitors in terms of total returns including those dividends reinvested well year to date it has been quite a difficult one for the industry Canadian Pacific roughly in the middle of the competitors Nega - 3.5% the best performing that we can see here is essentially FIP closely followed by UNP and CSX so not the best performed in terms of their competitors and how does that essentially compare when we look at a wider period of 5e given the overall Market year to date by the technology companies haven't had the greatest performance so 5 years what we can see when we look at CP it has in fact outperformed all of its competitors 82% return Over The Last 5 Years significantly performing better than the close second which is ump 52% now whilst I always say essentially historical information isn't an indicative of future performance it is something just to bear in mind and hopefully for those CP investors it is something that will continue in the near future now institutions as we can see here hold around 67 68% of the company now buying and selling is what we like to see so total outflows the amount of selling the institutions have done just shy of 5 billion over the last 12 years as we can see across here but interestingly inflows and institutions have been buying around 10 billion so institutions are significantly more buying shares of Canadian Pacific than they are selling so again interesting to know the trends that we are seeing here now in terms of the dividend safety score 76 making it safe market cap around 67 billion making a large cap company now in terms of some key metrics especially those who believe we're heading into a recession the last recession period 0709 they maintained the dividend recession sales -2.8 % but bear in mind this was the average growth of companies in the S&P 500 During the 0709 period but recession return it did underperform the S&P by - 64% versus 55% in 0709 so just a bit there to digest for those investors who do believe essentially that a recession is looming now they haven't increased their dividend as we can see here since 20120 so do bear that in mind however the Last 5 Years compounded annual growth has been 12% the last 11% so when you essentially couple this with the return on investment as we saw over the last 10 years it isn't the worst but it would be nice to see some dividend increases and as I always say do bear one thing in mind if it isn't increasing at all you are getting less than the inflation rate which I always say is 4% every single year so if you're getting less than 4% in your dividends other income producing assets or essentially salary you are losing your purchasing power and taking a pay cut so bear that in mind so div yield theory states and companies undervalued when the current yield sits above the 5year average 08 versus 85 You could argue this is reasonable valuation but again as always we never look at any model in isolation and we'll draw a conclusion towards the end of the episode forward PE 23.4 versus 22.1 again fairly in line with the 5year average another sign of undervaluation and we can see the P at 23.4 higher than the sector P at 17.4 now as I mentioned whilst it is towards the 52 we low do bear in mind if it was at the 52 we low that would not signal undervaluation likewise 52e high would not signal overv valuation earnings versus free cash flow Regular subscribers no we don't look at the earnings we tend to ignore it it is susceptible to manipulation by management through accounting and for those that have seen quite a lot of videos we do run through some examples from some companies just to show this clearly so free cash flow 60% and below is what I like to see it means that there is room for management to grow those dividends double dig digits that we do love to see as investors over the large part in Factor has been well below 60% so it is a bit of a surprise that they aren't increasing those dividends year on year what we can in fact see 2022 27% 2023 expected to be 25% now again earnings per share the metrics are there for investors that like to look at that data I'll draw your attention to the free cash flow 82 cents in 2013 278 in 2022 it is going in the right direction with 2023 expected to be 3.08 but not as consistent as maybe we would like to see in terms of regular increases year on year but bear in mind whilst it is an inconsistent company it is moving in the right direction which is positive to see now as I mentioned 3 to 7% growth is what we like to see year on year and we can see for the large part in fact it has hit those metrics there is 2016 and 2020 where we see negative growth but over the long period and numerically speaking 6 billion of Topline sales in 2013 just shy of 9 billion in 2022 so we we are seeing around a 50% increase on the top line over the last 10 years positive to see but again you're not look investing in a company that has a massive growth year on year now this picture tells us two stories typically shares outstanding we love it as investors when companies do share BuyBacks returning excess cash to our pockets what we can see 2013 883 shares outstanding 2020 680 so the company was doing share BuyBacks which is positive for investors but in 2020 to 2022 we can see they do the opposite where they issue shares and essentially dilute your position as a shareholder and in fact taking it above to what it was in 2013 so a slight negative and as I always say if they've done this once before they are likely to do this again in times of need roic return on invested Capital One of my seven golden dividend metrics if you want to see the other six do check the pinned YouTube video 10% plus is what I like to see it means management are able to effectively allocate their Capital now this is a bit of a worry for me 13 to 17% from 2013 to 2020 it did take a massive drop in 21 and 22 so I would like to see this go back above 10% as it is a slight worry and doesn't give me a lot of faith About Management if they are going down into single digits especially when the prior history has been very good operating margin free cash flow margin not much to say other than very very strong whilst we look for over 12% they have been consistently well above that and in fact increasing the higher the operating margin the better for our shareholders it means the bottom line net income should be higher and there for leading to dividends and essentially dividend growths now when we look at the right the free cash flow margin a very similar story and however the last two years have been phenomenal in terms of that free cash flow margin so very positive to see no worries with the margin themselves now net debt to earnings for interest tax depreciation amortization it was a worry something I flagged in the balance sheet review the reason for this they were increasing that debt quite significantly and far outpacing the increase in cash three is the maximum we look for the number of years it would take the the company to pay off all their debt n of cash on hand whilst it's been below that up to 2020 we do see it Go quite high in 2021 to 4.99 possibly why they haven't been increasing those dividends whilst it has come down in 2022 at 4.39 it's still above what I like to see The only positive here is it is expected in 2023 to be around 3.26 again don't forget this will affect that all important dividend safety as well as that dividend growth on the right just showing the percentage of a company's financing as a well from Equity as opposed to debt now in terms of the valuation model and as always if you do enjoy the content value is being provided smash the like button hit the Subscribe and Bell button if you want to be continually notified of these videos as they drop and if you want to grab a copy of the valuation model do click on the pin comment below where you can get your own intrinsic value for Canadian Pacific as well as other companies in your own portfolio now the first company or the first valuation typically that we would use is essentially graes formula however for companies that do have faster growing re revenues it is something where you could essentially remove from the intrinsic value calculator and in today's episode we will not be including Graham's valuation but just to run through for those that are interested to see how it works for the newer viewers earnings per share 339 with a stock ticker symbol at CP we have the growth rate per analyst estimates current y on AAA corporate bonds as well as giving us our intrinsic value of $50 however as mentioned we're not using this model so the first model we're using is the multiples valuation model companies in a similar sector and size all of which we've reviewed on the channel so do go check them out if you want to see them North Folk Southern Union Pacific Canadian National Railway Old Dominion Freight Line as we can see their stock price earnings per share P multiple we get the average multiply by that of the EPS of CP and get a stock price of $77 for Canadian Pacific now we can see that's around 10% upside to the current trading price below the 52e high again showing signs of undervaluation to the company in the current market we then move on to the second model the dividend discount model and whilst you may see the growth rate slightly different year on-ear these companies are paid out dividends in Canadian dollars so this will be the FX changes to the USD comparison but the average growth rate nonetheless in Canadian dollars is around 11 to 12% so forward looking I have estimated around 7.25% I would expect them to start increasing those dividends especially with that very low free cash flow payout however as always though if you want to justify a lower or higher depending on your own essential investment thesis do grab a copy of the mod to get your own estimates however based on this we get a DDM price of $82 as we can see some nice upside to the current trading price around 15% slightly low in the 52 we high but again showing signs of undervaluation in the current market we then move on to the third and final model we're using the DCF model with the free cash flows year on-year average growth rate around 16.7% with analysts estimating 16% forward looking alongside that discount rate we get the present value of future free cash flows and terminal value add the cash subtract total debt get to our Equity value divide that by the shares outstanding to get a DCF price of $89 as we can see that's slightly higher in fact than the current trading well current 52 we High higher than the current trading price showing severe signs of undervaluation in the current market so the intrinsic value is essentially the average of the three models we've just watched and again if you do enjoy the content value is being provided it helps the channel astronomically if you smash the like button subscribe if you want to have more videos of these drop to your doorstep by hitting that Bell button so intrinsic value coming to $83 now margin of safety typically I would say 10% if you believe it has a wide mode strong financial metrics good forward looking data but again you could in my opinion justify higher than 10% for this company if you were looking at 15% your acceptable buy would be around $70 to $71 if we take a look that is still within the 52- we range personally for a company like Canadian Civic I would say a margin of safety of 20% would be justified meaning a Buy around $66 now when we take a look that is essentially slightly higher than the current trading price but it really depends on your margin of safety now as I mentioned it is below the 52- we low but again it does depend personally my thoughts on this when we do take a look at essentially their competitors my personal preferences and again full disclosure I hold Canadian national rail and Union Pacific for me the long-term aspects of these companies far outweigh that of Canadian Pacific and again if you want to understand the reasons why I believe this I have recently dropped videos on both of these and as I mentioned I do hold them Canadian Pacific isn't one that I really would be looking to hold unless it really went really low around 20% or even 25% margin of safety however as always let me know your thoughts in the comments below are you looking to buy Canadian Pacific looking sell or purely on the sideline speculating Wall Street do however believe the price over the next 12 months to go way higher than our intrinsic value to $89 so they do believe it to be a strong buy as always if you do want to grab a copy of the model to get your own inic value of K Pacific or even companies in your own portfolio do click on the pin comment below as always have a great day don't forget to like And subscribe catch you on the next episode and take care
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