저자: 미상 · 외국인
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테슬라 실적 발표(다음 주 수요일) 앞두고 기대치 점검. 4분기 차량 인도 약 49.5만대(기록적), 매출 약 272억달러(+7.5%), EPS 약 0.744달러 예상. 애널리스트 평균 목표가 $337(하락 여지 약 19%), 모닝스타 적정가 $210. 자체 DCF 적정가 $244로 약 41% 하락 여지, 현재 가격에서 안전마진 없음. 자율주행·로보택시·옵티머스 기대가 주가에 상당 부분 반영됨. 결론적으로 강력 매수 아님.
다듬은 글
alongside Apple Tesla has been one of the worst performing stocks over the last few days down around 4% nonetheless over the last year it is up around 97% and we do also note they are due to report their earnings next Wednesday after the market close so today we want to run through what are the expectations going into their earnings do we believe this is a company to add to the portfolio and what is our valuation process what is the margin of safety and overall is this one we do see as a strong buy now first thing to note are some key takeaways for what we are anticipating and the first one that we already know in terms of the data released is that they did achieve a record performance of around 459,000 Vehicles produced with over 495 delivered in Q4 now analysts are anticipating around 27.2 billion for the quarter which will be around a 7.5% rise from the same quarter last year and earnings per share is around the 74 4 C Mark again a 7% increase from the same quarter in 2023 now analyst do have lots of price ranges which we will cover an average later on but we can see on this article $337 which actually means downside is expected of around 19% over the next year but we do know when looking at the majority of Institutions again something we will cover 73% remain bullish while 27% do have short positions in this company and we can in fact note that overall the stock price does maintain a long upward Trend although in the near Trend volatility is expected then when we look at Morning Star who also cover where does Tesla sit right now especially as we do head into earnings it can be quite volatile for this company as we have noted but straight off the bat they see the fair value even lower at $210 and they say there is a lot of uncertainty in fact the highest category at very high and a few things that they do want us to look out for from when we do get the earnings are gross margins are we going to see these continue to rise something we want to see for high quality companies not just Revenue increases not just higher numbers of vehicles delivered but also look at the margins also quite importantly is the autonomous driving software progress as they do anticipate this year to launch their level three of the FSD unsupervised software in both California as well as Texas we also want to hear more information about the new vehicle launch as we can see a smaller SUV nicknam model q and it is hoped that this will be in the mid 30,000 range which will help their Topline Revenue grow as you can argue this does relate to a new customer Market finally energy generation as well as storage growth we want to see how that has improved they had record battery storage deployment in 20124 and they also recently opened up a new Factory in China that aims to double their Productions once it's ramped up so four key things to look out and we do want to highlight that year to date it is still up around 2% over the last 10 years if you've been a shareholder you'd be up nearly 3,000% massively out forming the S&P but you can just see the inconsistency a bit of a roller coaster ride you would have had as a shelder if you were still holding and right now it does still trade at the upper end of the 52e range although we notice Seeking Alpha does have a sell rating Wall Street with a hold and Quant with a hold although 3.49 they're not far off the buy rating so you could argue they sit on the fence now when we look at how their earnings have been over the last four quarters they beat their most recent Q3 however the previous three they did in fact miss giving them only a 25% track record but it is positive if you do have faith in what they estimate the next four quarters they are looking at strong growth in fact q1 to Q3 of 2025 that is double digit and right now when we look at the EPS estimate for this full year it does mean they are sitting at a forward Peak of27 and there is no surprises then that on the valuation grade they get a D minus because that i of 17.6 meaning if you're buying this company you are paying an 848 premium Now look you can argue this company deserves a premium especially when compared against a group of companies that maybe don't have the AI Edge that Tesla has but the other thing we do want to make you aware is that it also currently sits not only above the sector but also 44% above their 5year average definitely something to consider now their growth is pretty inconsistent with a D plus grade year- on-year Topline 1.3% below the sector median of 2.34 also below their 5year average of 34% forward looking 12% is anticipated which is above the sector but again below their 5year average and the other thing we do want to pinpoint here is the EPS is expected to grow at 99.2% which is marginally lower than the sector comparative but significantly lower than the 51% from again their 5year if we look at their profitability does look a lot stronger at a plus their gross margin 18% lower significantly than the sector at 38 lower marginally than their 5-year average bottom line 133% a lot better than the sector and also better than their 5year but one thing we do like about this company is the cash they generate from operations the reason why we get the A+ rating just under 15 billion well above the sector comparative at 268 million and also well above their 5year of 10.24 billion so definitely things to consider with this company as we want to reiterate a cell rating from Seeking Alpha a double hold from Wall Street and Quant D minus on valuation D Plus on growth with an A+ on profitability now there are a few other articles that we want to talk about with Tesla especially coming into their earnings and we can see Tesla stock itself it is up it does continue to increase as we saw 90% over the last year but what they're trying to get at here is these stock rationale for why we see the movement is anything but cars which is their main Revenue Source now we can in fact see it's talking about here if cars do not matter for Tesla stock then what is ultimately going to drive their revenue and we can see here the answer is artificial intelligence and investors no surprises here want to see AI trained self-driving Tesla cars on the road as well as more of a development on Optimus which for those that don't know is the name of the AI trained humanoid robot so hopefully we get more information about the plans to launch the self-driving Robo taxi service by the end of the year and whilst we did hear of robot sales starting at the end of 2025 this is something we want to see rather than just promises and this will ultimately drive this company stock even higher than what we currently see as we mentioned the stock itself is already up more than 70% since the robo taxi event and that was probably a very strong time to buy but we really want to understand today is it a great time to consider right now because ultimately this stock itself has been on a roller coaster ride not just for the last couple of weeks but ultimately over the last 10 years we have another article now this is from Mor Stanley analyst which does talk about the big implications for AI stock for Tesla and how it's ultimately going to drive some very strong growth in fact they do have a very positive outlook for this company they are a Tesla bull which means they do believe the outlook for this company is very strong and even with the $430 price Target this is around the current price so ultimately what we can take away from this is a lot of this good news that is anticipated is already significantly baked into the share price and they talk about $260 which is is roughly half of the current share price right now pretty much related to AI self-driving technology but right now what isn't baked in is the value for humanoid robots which is again estimated to have significant volumes in 2026 now the final thing that we do want to talk about here is that we have a very very bullish analyst Dan I are very popular you may have heard of him he believes the price Target right now something he did increase just a few days ago is $550 and believe the golden age is now here for auton us driving as well as Optimus so definitely something to keep an eye when we do get to see the full report the final thing here that we do get from the financial times is talking about the character of the CEO Elon Musk whether or not he is going to be beneficial for this company as he is very closely now tied in to the new US president Donald Trump but one thing that the analysts can agree on is that a bet on Elon Musk a bet on Tesla is that one day we will see self-driving cars and Robo taxis and potentially even the optim robot in every single household now if we do get that you could look at this company right now and say it is significantly undervalued even with the extreme growth we have seen over the last year and even with the very high forward P of 167 what we ultimately want to do though today is look at our own valuation and see based on what we have the information we have now is this a strong buy now a few things before we do get to that process again just want to show you some of their metrics the free cash flow has been very inconsistent over the last 10 years the same to be said for the sales growth so definitely understandable why holding this company over the last 10 years has been a bit of a roller coaster ride nonetheless if you do stand back and look from the last 10 years the top line has gone from 3.2 billion to 97 billion and while they have diluted your position as a shelder over the last 10 years you wouldn't really care about it bearing in mind they have massively out formed the S&P and again lots of inconsistency the roic up and down year on-ear some years negative and we can in fact say the same on both the operating margin side as well as the free cash flow final thing we would say though about this company is they do have a very strong balance sheet the net debt to ebit D from 2020 and expected over the next 12 months does show zero which means in terms of what the Insiders are doing well 21% ownership 286 Million worth of sales over the last year 44 million just sold so far over the last few weeks and around 169 million in the latest 4 quarter Q4 but remember it isn't one that we ourselves believe is a bearish so the most recent here we have the director as well as the CFO on the 6th of January selling in combination 107,000 shares netting them around $43 million again information is here if you want to use it in your own investment strategy in institutions 66% ownership 18 billion worth of sales over the last year same time period they have bought nearly double so they are very bullish however we would pinpoint that in the most recent quarter they have sold nearly twice as much only caveat we would say here is we've seen this across 99% of all stocks where institutions have been selling quite a significant amount now before we do dive into the DCF model weekly article we drop one every single Monday morning to your inbox as well as grabbing this spreadsheet of 46 undervalued stocks for the month of January we release one every single month and you also get to se this now leads us into our valuation where you can see straight away our intrinsic value of $244 Tove from the DCF model now we're going to show you exactly how we got to that figure we have the free cash flow year-on-year average growth now very skewed as we did show you earlier lots of years of negative free cash flow but forward looking we've gone 35% you can NZ 244 indicating 41% downside now Tesla or any others but full transparency if you believe 30% to be more accurate $179 downside of 57% and for those that are a lot more bullish at 40% you can see 331 which is actually at the beginning of the episode what we saw analyst believe and that does indicate 20% downside morning start as we saw actually lower than the 2 44 and this will ultimately depend on the growth rate that you see over the next 10 years and Beyond this will depend on if you're very bullish on Elon Musk being able to deliver those Robo taxis Optimus as well as full self-driving cars as always though we will take through the medium rate at 35% and what this ultimately means there is no margin of safety as typically we like to start off with did believe that then it would be a Buy around 200 $120 and you can see for example 20% 1995 ultimately then we do believe right now at the price of $45 Tesla is trading at a premium and will shoot themselves on average with their $330 price Target believe there is downside of 20% over the next year again bear in mind these are just projections about the company we will know more and understand how the projections of these new things are coming along but again as always do give us your thoughts in the comments below whether this is is one you have bought previously maybe you're considering buying or for whatever reason it doesn't fit your overall portfolio thesis and don't forget to sign up to the free weekly newslet we are dropping a fresh copy on Monday morning nd
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