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2024년 반도체 부진 속 AMD(-15%)와 마이크론(+4%)을 비교. 두 종목 모두 52주 저점 부근이며 Seeking Alpha·월가 매수 의견이 많음. 마이크론은 PE 11.4로 업계 대비 저평가, 배당 보유; AMD는 장기 FCF 일관성 부족이나 재무 건전. DCF 기준 AMD 내재가치 약 $189(상승여력 51%), 마이크론 $138(상승여력 약 35~57%). 둘 다 AI 수요 수혜 기대, 최종 판단은 투자자 몫이라는 결론.
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is looking like another red day in the S&P although the semiconductor as an industry is looking fairly strong and when we take a look at the performance of 2024 semiconductors again haven't done too bad for the large part but AMD is down 15% and Micron not that great only up 4% so we're going to cover both of these stocks in today's episode to understand which one has the better growth opportunity for 2025 both of them as we can see trading right there towards their 52 we lows so is one of these one that really can Propel our portfolio into 2025 with more than just an S&P equivalent gain now let's just have a quick look at both of them AMD and Micron Technology both prominent players in the semiconductor space each with their own distinct Market Focus as well as Financial profile now Micron Technology itself specializes in memory and Storage Solutions in including drram and Nan flash memory essential for various Computing devices as well as data centers and then we have AMD which develops CPUs as well as gpus for personal computers servers gaming consoles with a growing emphasis on AI and data centers when we look at the performance of AMD and we will do a like for like comparison they are down over the last 12 months -2% but over the last 10 years they have massively out formed thep P up 4,600 as you mentioned at their 52e lows although they are rebounding fairly nicely today up 5% their forward PE which we will come to in a bit more detail at 36 and they don't currently pay a dividend yield which is unlike Micron which does and we can see a double buy rating from seeking Alf and Wall Street although we can see here Quan giving this a hold then when we do the same analysis for Micron Technology it is up around 13% over the last yea has marginally underperformed the SNP but as we can see it is quite someway away from his 52e high at $158 very similar then to AMD we get a double Buy Signal from Seeking Alpha in Wall Street although 4.46 not far off the 4.5 to turn this into a strong buy and Quant do give this a hold now we did say it pays a dividend although fairly trivial at 0.51% and the 4p does currently sit around 13 now with Micron Technology what we have noticed is that they have faced challenges due to weak demand in the PC and smartphone market which has ultimately led to a cautious Outlook however revenue from the high bandwidth memory chips is crucial for AI applications and that has more than doubled which does indicate potential growth in the AI sector for Mu then when we take a look at Advanced Micro Devices they have themselves been expanding their presence in Ai and services CPU markets which could ultimately Drive their future growth now we'll take a step back from the future and we'll just show you their historical performances over the last year AMD are down around 16% mu up around 15 both of them lagging the SNP which is up 26% when we expand this to the last 5 years we actually see AMD top performing up 168 with SNP coming in second place Micron underperforming both of these companies and then when we zoom out even further further to the last 10 years no surprises as we mentioned earlier AMD with massive outperformance and mu marginally underperforming the S&P 500 now we do incorporate this analysis into our overall investment thesis but do bear in mind past performance has no real indication on how they'll perform in the future so let's take a look at the earnings we'll start off with Advanced Micro Devices and over the next four quarters they are anticipating double digit growth to the EPs year- on-year and with the last four quart they have either been in line or a marginal beat and that gives us a 100% track record giving us faith that December 2025 their next full year their earnings per share at 510 will lower the forward P to 23.4 and this is in our opinion what we would consider their forward P the 2025 Target at 23.4 now when we compare that to Micron Technology we can see likewise they are expecting growth in fact two of them triple digit with the remaining two at Double Digit but they they get in fact here a 100% record in terms of beats four out of four and then next full year at August 2026 at 11.5 will in turn lower their forp even further at 7.8 so in comparison right now Micron Technology is trading significantly lower than Advanced Micro Devices now that does insinuate to us that it is at a higher valuation a lot more expensive and you could argue here that micro technology so far is looking a lot lot more attractive then we want to talk about the growth grade which is very important with AMD getting an A and the main thing we want to draw your attention to here i is anticipated to grow at 42% which is significantly higher than the sector median at 15.6 then we do the same comparison for micron where they get an A+ and particularly for the earnings per share it is lower than AMD at 36.6 but still above the sector median at 15.5 if we then talk about the underlying metrics of each of the companies first off with AMD where we look at the free cash flow remember on this channel we do tend to ignore we want consistent increases over the long term now this is a very cynical industry so no surprises why we get some years positive some years negative and even ups and downs in the positive years 2023 at 69 we do like the fact over the next 12 months it is has anticipated the Skyrocket to just under $4 per share and then we move on to the sales growth in fact two of the last 10 years have been negative notably the most recent Year good to see on a training 12 month 10% therefore 2024 should be a fairly strong year and we can see over the long term whilst there is massive growth a Forex we do notice the last year has been fairly flat and over the next 12 months not looking like massive growth that we have seen in Prior years now will also point out the fact they have diluted but remember it is key to also understand you probably wouldn't care at all given they have massively outperformed the S&P 500 in terms of the roic as well as always we do want to see a minimum 10% this is just inconsistency all over the shop last two years low single digit 2% again on a training 12 month not really giving us that consistency that we want to see on this channel and the operating margin and the free cash flow margin pretty much confirming the same thing reinforcing that there is no real consistency over the long term with AMD doesn't mean there won't be any consistency moving forward but that is why we always incorporate a margin of safety on this channel then we have the net debt to evitar which tells us from 2019 and over the next 12 months with zero on the board very very strong balance sheet then when we take a look at the same for micron now do bear in mind they do pay a dividend so we get a borderline safe score here but one thing we do note is they haven't increased that dividend since 2022 now we also understand that it was reaffirmed last month and what this ultim means the 60 score in terms of dividend growth as we said no increase but they have been paying a dividend fairly recently for only the last 3 years and as we can without reduction we then move on to the valuation where this one does tell us the essential forward PE is giving a sign of severe undervaluation but remember we're going to take a look at these in our own valuation process here the blue tunnel insinuates the expected intrinsic value what we notice right now it is outside that so as we mentioned undervaluation and whilst we would typically draw your attention to dividend yield theory that tells for the last three years and they haven't increased it in a few so a little bit Irrelevant for today's episode but the forward PE at 11.4 below the 5year rolling does give us confirmation of undervaluation and you can see it is trading significantly lower than the sector of 23.8 therefore at a massive massive discount but also bear in mind in fact some also deserve to be trading at a premium it's our job to understand whether or not the market has overreacted now because they do pay dividend we have the free cash FL P we want below 50% and we can see on a training 12 month at 92% that does make us understand why they haven't increased the dividend nice to see 10% over the next 12 months indicating we should at a bare minimum get an inflationary increase and then we move to the free cash flow very very similar to AMD a lot of inconsistency given the nature of the industry but nice to report again following the footsteps of Advanced Micro Devices a large jump anticipated over the next 12 months we also see a little bit more in terms of negative to their Top Line in fact half of the 10 years have been negative half of been positive although nice to see the most recent year as well as the trading to a month very large surges to their Topline revenue and from a numerical format you can clearly see both inconsistency as well as the large swings on a year-on-year basis now they've done both they've diluted your position they've also done share BuyBacks over the long term very minimal share BuyBacks but nice to see you don't have that massive dilution like AMD but on the flip side AMD has massively outform the S SMP whereas we showed you Micron Technology has not we then get the roic which is very similar to AMD a lot of inconsistency throughout and then when we take a look at both margin and free cashow margin you can clearly see the very same common theme one thing we would say though is not all semi conductors are like this you do get quite a lot that have a lot of strong consistency and we have covered a lot of these on the channel so do check them out whilst the net DEA ebit D doesn't reflect as strongly as AMD where it did sit at zero we still get 054 in a trading 12 month 34 over the next 12 months which does tell us the balance sheet is very strong not as strong as what we noted from a andd but nonetheless well below the 1.5 now before we jump into our valuation process we just want to let you know we have released just a few hours ago in fact our latest free weekly article where we cover two massive strong stocks that are considerations for the portfolio after the drop we saw last week now we drop these to your inbox 28 copy of $ sign up and you can start reading straight away we then move into the valuation process where we'll start with Advanced Micro Devices we get an intrinsic value of $189 now we derive this from the free cash flow model where we have essentially the free cash flow on a year-on-year basis the average growth although negative it has gone from positive to negative a few years skewing the overall numbers now forward looking we've gone 30% and x value divied by the shares outstanding and as you can see 189 indicating 51% upside bear in mind AMD or any others but we'll show you for full transparency at 25% $142 133% and then when we take a look here at 3 5% $250 pretty much a double right now if you believe the free cash flows will grow at that rate moving forwards and then we also have Bloomberg who did talk about this industry growing at 42% and that in turn would give an intrinsic value of $365 thereby giving this a 3X from the current price as always though we do like to take the medium rate here of 30% where we always apply a margin of safety 10% where we execute on this at 170 you can see in today's episode around $123 not far off the price today you're getting a$ 35 MOS with Wall Street themselves giving this a buy rating $188 over the next year they in turn translating to 50% upside so on one hand AMD 35% MOS upside of 50% and then when when we take a similar look at Micron Technology we get an intrinsic value of $138 and when we do run the same thing through the essential DCF model we get $138 at a 15% growth rate of 55% for those that believe it should be higher at 20% more than double and for those at 10% upside of 12% as we said we take the medium rate through where we apply a very similar margin of safety and for this company today not at the 40% level yet but it is sitting bang on 35% which is the same as what we saw for AMD in terms of The Upside well Wall Street themselves actually see more upside at $140 57 but realistically both aren't far from each other so if you do believe in these companies over the long term right now both giving a 35% MOS we have AMD 50% upside we have Micon technology at 57% and when we do think about the analyst well they do have mixed views on both of these companies some on one hand see greater opportunities for micron due to their advances in AI related memory Solutions While others favor AMD for its competitive position in CPUs as well as gpus in terms of both of these companies they do have strong positions in the semiconductor space they have exposure to Aid driven growth Micron does offer potentially a more attractive valuation and is making strides in AI memory Solutions while AMD has demonstrated robust growth in processing technology IES as always though your investment decision should really align with your own individual Financial goal your risk tolerance as well as your investment Horizons so give us your thoughts below whether or not you believe mu or AMD has better prospects for growth in 2025 and Beyond whether you're buying any holding any or in fact you actually want to sell either of these companies below one we'll see you all on the next one
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