저자: 미상 · 외국인
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마이크론은 실적 발표 전 반도체 강세 속 주가가 52주 저점권에 있고, 밸류에이션 할인과 강한 성장(매출 YoY 80% 전망, EPS 성장률)을 근거로 저평가 매력이 있다고 주장. DCF 기준 적정가 $124(상승여지 31%), 높은 성장 가정 시 $169, 보수적 가정 시 $90대. 다만 가이던스 쇼크로 주가 급락 전력과 메모리 다분기 조정 우려(BofA 목표가 $125→$110 하향)도 언급. 배당 안전성 60(경계선).
다듬은 글
we have quite a mixed day right across the market but interestingly when we take a look at the semiconductor space Micron Technology is up over 2% when the majority of others are down now bear in mind this is a company that is due to report at the end of next month so we want to take a look understand where is the company heading is it an undervalued opportunity now and should we consider buying for massive growth at the end of 2025 first things first they are up around 10% % over the last year over the last 10 years if you have been a shareholder whilst you would have been on a bit of a rocky roller coaster you would be up 200% and at this point in time have out formed the SNP now bear in mind it is trading towards the lower end of the 52e range quite a pullback from their 52e high of $158 and we do notice Wall Street themselves consider this company a buy at 4.46 they're also not far off a 4.5 to turn this into a strong bu rating we also do want to flag they pay a dividend that currently sits at the 49% yield now how do they do in their previous earnings well we can actually see the headline gives it away their shares plunged on week second quarter guidance and as we always say when you are looking at companies when you are looking at their earnings yes good to see them beat on the EPs and the revenue but the guidance is something anist closely look at and that will determine how strong or how poor the company forms in terms of the share price and as we can see off the back of those earnings the shares did drop around 133% so how were those earnings 179 nice to see above the expected 1.75 Revenue pretty much in line 8.71 and they said they do expect revenue of around 7.9 billion for the next quarter as we said due to come at the end of March with earnings per share expectations of 143 now that is quite some way away from what the market wanted to hear they were expecting near 9 billion Revenue an earnings per share of 191 on the back of this we do in fact see that analysts are still largely upbeat on Micron Technology as a company to own not just in 2025 but also moving forwards however one thing that we did see were analysts that actually believed this company shouldn't be as strongly regarded as it once was in fact there are others who say that they are entering a possible multi quarter correction in the memory Market similar to what was seen in 2223 and we do have here one analyst who was kept their buy rating did ultimately lower their price Target to 125 from 135 which is at the moment in time still more than 30% upside now they weren't the only ones that had a change of heart in terms of the rating we have the Bank of America who on the same day actually reduced their price Target as well as downgrading this company to a neutral from a buy and they've got their price Target now sitting at $110 which is previously at125 now we also o want to bear in mind some positive news in which Micron Technology had around $6 billion in the chips act funding and this was for micron plants in the US now we can take a look here they were awarded exactly 6.65 billion and what this ultimately meant is that it would go towards multiple semiconductor manufacturing products right here in the US something that Donald Trump is definitely really keen on doing a lot of manufacturing now this is something we have seen alongside Intel and TSM who have also been given some benefit for this chips act and we also saw some very good news just last month in fact Micon technology we do note around a 7 billion investment over the next several years in order to meet the AI data center demand something we have seen right across the board amongst many semiconductor companies now their earnings were actually quite positive for the quarter up 12% and up 84% from the same quarter last year we also noticed that their largest revenue driver the dram Market which is 70% of their total revenue was up 20 % from the previous quarter we also noticed that gross margin has been increasing we're going to show you it against the sector but we do want to point out here the margin is up in terms of the comparative of the 5year average which tells us not only has their revenue moved in the upwards Direction but so has their gross margin which we love to see for efficiency and this is typically a criteria that we want to note for high quality companies we also note over the last few years they have been returning a lot of excess cash to investor Pockets one way they've been doing this is through shared BuyBacks but we also notice and whilst it may not be quite a significant priority for management and their Capital allocation they do pay quite a heavy amount towards dividends in total in this period around 4.8 billion returned we can however confirm that in that latest quarter no BuyBacks were initiated but something we will look to for Q2 of 2025 and in terms of the guidance we will show you here although we did already discuss it it has come in quite a way under what the analyst had previously forecasted now in terms of the company the earnings that they expect is very very high it will be very key to see if they can execute over the next two quarters they're expecting triple digit growth to the EPS subsequent two still very high double digit and we always love companies the green right across the board telling us the last four quarters they outform targets 100% track record and if we do look to August 2026 based on the EPS Target this company's forward P will sit at 8.27 now how does that currently compare against the sector median well it is a lot higher meaning right now if you are buying this company you are paying a near 50% discount to the overall Market meaning it's trading at a discount question we need answered is this company actually been punished by the market and are we looking at a golden opportunity we can also see it currently trade significantly lower we're talking 84% lower than the historical 5-year average and that is pretty much shown in the vast majority of different valuation metrics this company Micron Technology is trading at a significant discount terms of a growth while they do get an A+ we do notice year-on-year Revenue up 80% over the next 12 months anticipated 42 that is significantly better than both the sector median as well as their historical 5-year average and the same to be said on the earnings per share over the next 3 to 5 years for Mu 38% above both comparatives of 15 and 6% respectively if we were to take a look at the profitability equally as strong at an A+ whilst we do know the margin or the gross margin of 31 is below the sector it's significantly higher than the 5year as we just saw gross margin for the latest quarter around 39 40% so it is moving in the right direction but very positive to see hence the a minus rating the bottom line margin 133% above both comparatives of four and seven respectively we then get to the cash generated from operations same thing to be said A+ 10.4 billion above both 100 and 9.1 bill so looking good that is why we do get some very positive gradings a minus on valuation A Plus on growth A Plus on profitability and as we said Wall Street themselves not far off the strong buy rating of 4.5 now we can also flag in terms of institutional ownership fairly High 81% there's been around 8 billion worth of sales over the last year but there has been more buying around 9 billion again same time frame and that also holds true in the latest quarter Q4 where we notice more buyers around 50% than we noticed sales we do a very similar quick analysis of the Insiders around 3% ownership we notied 60 million worth of sales nothing in the latest quarter of q1 2025 very marginal sales in Q4 very marginal sales in Q3 the bulk does come in Q2 and q1 of 2024 now we'll show you here just for those that want to see for full transparency who's been selling and when but this isn't typically a bearish signal for us management sell for many reasons personal and Financial now we'll also very quickly highlight the underlining quality metrics dividend safety sits at 60 borderline safe we'll cover these two valuation metrics as well as we do take a look for those that are interested reaffirmed just last month 60 boardline safe score meaning there is a moderate risk of a dividend cut for Mu over a full economic cycle we'll also point out that in the last recession their sales were 8% which is below the S&P which came in at -12 and they haven't increased the dividend since 2022 having said that though bear in mind they only really recently introduced a dividend so don't expect too much this isn't one that we would classify right now as a dividend Growth Company as we can see 3 years of paying one without a reduction now the first valuation metric based on the 5year average of the PE bear in mind we're not looking at this in isolation we will conclude when we run it through our own process towards the end now the blue tunnel indicating the expected fair price now it is moving upwards which is a fairly positive sign although we can see over the last few months downward Trend something to bear in mind right now it does sit in the middle of the Blue Point here giving us a reasonable signal we then move on to two other points now the first one dividend yield Theory we won't really mention today given the fact it isn't one of Management's priority in terms of capital allocation in terms of increasing it but forward P not far off their 5year average if you do look at it from this method but one thing we can agree on it does trade 24.4 now in terms of free cash flip out for those that really interested want to know we want below 50% currently over the next one months anticipated to be 19 so perhaps they could increase it but maybe they just prefer to do a lot of share BuyBacks instead bear in mind this industry as a whole is very cyclical we can see that through the numbers especially for Micron Technology although free cash flow is expected to increase over the next 12 months having said that some companies in this industry actually aren't affected as much Micron as we clearly can see is one of those that is in terms of sales growth as well we in fact noticed five of the last 10 years being negative nice to see though in 2024 we do get a very large 62% jump and you can see straight away from the numbers lot of Peaks a lot of troughs indicating the cyclicality nature shares outstanding we want companies returning excess cash something we have highlighted they have done over the more recent period but when we do look at it over the last 10 years there is very minimal movement hope hopefully something we can see they start to do very aggressively especially if they do believe this company is undervalued roic we want 10% or more 12% if we want to be industry specific again signality shining right through into their numbers and something we also see on both the operating margin side as well as the free cash flow so something to bear in mind when you are looking at your own investment thesis now net debt to ebit are below 1.5 for the industry numbers you see below nice to see on a training 12 month .54 over the next 12 months even low at 34 so they do have a very strong balance sheet and in all honesty we do believe for the time being that dividend is safe now before we jump into our valuation model we do want to let you know we have just released our latest freew weekly article we dropped one every single Monday morning completely free trade away where you'll also be able to gain access to 45 undervalued stocks for the month of February nother spreadsheet right now now our updated valuation based on the numbers comes to $124 derived from the DCF model now we can show you we have the 2024 figure here with our growth rate at 20% bear in mind we have three different figures low medium and high and at the 20% a 24 indicating 31% upside now full transparency for those that believe it should be low at$ 15 around $90 so not far off the current price but downside of 5% so you could argue baked into the value of Micon right now is just below a 15% growth rate moving forwards for those that are a lot more bullish about the industry as we have seen from analyst 25% would indicate intrinsically $169 that is7 8% upside now if we take through the medium rate of 20% where we aren't just finished yet we apply a 10% margin of safety starting off at that point anyway executing if it has now if you believe that in today's episode a buy 112 and as we keep going near the current trading price we can see not of the 25% level just yet but not far at all around 93 $94 would indicate 25% and even though Wall Street have lowered their price Target on average at $135 this does indicate 42% making it a very good opportunity to consider if you haven't got a semiconductor but there are also other options like SMH sock Q if you just want that security of a semiconductor specific ETF as always though do give us your thoughts 25% margin of safety 42% upside is this one you are looking to consider do you think the earnings will be strong enough and it will send this company up around the 100 plus region and come and join us as well nd we have been making some movements in our own portfolio as always though
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