저자: 미상 · 외국인
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2025년 초 반도체 강세 지속을 전제로 ASML과 TSMC를 비교. ASML은 52주 저점 부근, 밸류에이션 프리미엄 존재, DCF 기준 내재가치 약 $886~1,000로 제시하며 $750 이하 매수 구간 언급. TSMC는 1년 103% 상승, DCF 평균 약 $225, 매수 여력 약 19%로 ASML보다 안전마진 낮다고 평가. 반도체 ETF(SOXQ) 대안도 소개. 기업 재무·성장성 지표 중심 분석.
다듬은 글
we've just kicked off 2025 but if we look at prior we see that there's a lot of green right across the board notably in the semiconductor space where we do believe there will be continuation into 2025 and that's why we're looking at two big companies in this space that is why the first company we're looking at asml in fact it is a Dutch one that designs and manufactures Advanced photography machines used to produce these semiconductor chips and their machine are critical for creating the intricate patterns on Silicon wafers in the chip making process enabling Cutting Edge Technologies like euv the extreme ultraviolet lithography now if we look at the company itself over the last year not the greatest one of the week is actually up only 3% however over the last 10 years massive outperformance of the S&P up 626 and right now we do see it trading towards the lower end of the 52e range with both Seeking Alpha and Wall Street giving this company a buy they do pay a yield although on the trivial side at .9% and one thing that we always like to highlight on this channel is dividend yield Theory which tells us right now it is slightly undervalued as the yield of 89 is above the 5year rolling of 83 we also notice the current forward P of 31.5 is below the 5year 34 so this in turn for us is a double undervaluation signal and when we take a look at their earnings very positive to see green right across the board which tells us two things firstly out of the last four quarters they have out formed management targets quite substantially as well for each quarter and moving forwards over the next four they are anticipating double digit growth to the EPS so if you do have faith given their 100% record over the last year that they will hit the $24 8 EPS Target for 2025 then the forward P currently does stand around the 30 1 point we also like to take a look at some of their gradings now the first one is valuation where they do get an F now whilst we see this sitting more around the lower 30 Mark 3132 we still notice the conclusion to be true that this company in comparison to the sector does trade at a premium right now if you are buying asml you're paying 49% and in fact this is reinforced no matter which valuation metric you do use but as we always say some companies actually deserve a premium some UND deserve a discount our job is to understand whether or not Market has maybe overreacted and that is why we are seeing this trade towards its 52 week lows and we'll get to that conclusion shortly Now growth grade they get a B minus Revenue year on year -2% the sector at 4.35 forward looking though over the next 12 months 12.9% above the sector comparative at 5.52 and we also noticed the EPS anticipated growth over over the next 3 to 5 years 16.8 sector comparative slightly lower at 15.5 we quite like the profitability which does sit at an A+ now gross margin 51% sector at 51 as well so pretty much no difference there however we see a large difference on the bottom line net income 26.4 versus 3.9 and we also notice the cash from operations looking very promising over the last 12 months 5.4 billion versus a comparative of 98 million so quick conclusion for this part we do get a double buy from seeking Alfred and Wall Street F on valuation B minus on growth with an A+ sitting on the profitability the other thing we do quite like about this company we've spoken about it quite a lot is that their net debt to ebit D has been zero over the last 10 years and anticipated over the next 12 now what this tells us in essence of cash on hand highlighting that they have a very strong balance sheet we also just want to mention here as well when we look at the institutional ownership it sits around 26% we see around 7.2 billion worth of sales over the last year but in the same time frame we do see a little bit more buying by the institutions 8.73 but one thing we do want to highlight in the most recent quarter Q4 of 2024 we actually see a lot more selling by the institutions so yes over the last year they've been buying a lot more but just over the most recent quarter they've actually done the opposite now let's jump into the valuation for asml where we get to $1,000 derived from the DCF model now we'll show you how we did this we have the free cash flow year- on-ear average growth over the last 10 years at 35% we've g a lot more conservative at 18 a this is our value now $1,000 indicating 35% UPS side from the current price now do remember these numbers are subjective the low medium high and you can always asml or any others now for full transparency we will show you at the 16% rate an intrinsic value of $886,000 where we always apply a margin of safety starting off with 10% executing on that if it meets our three go and criteria wide Moe which in turn gives it a buy up to $900 and up to $750 you are getting a 25% MOS with Wall Street as we saw the buy rating $900 is where they see this over the next year and that translates to 21% upside now do give us your thoughts below whether asml is an attractive semiconductor you have been buying but as we said the beginning we are now going to compare this to Taiwan semiconductors before we do that now we drop this to your inbox every single Monday morning for free gain access to 46 right now on to Taiwan semiconductor Manufacturing Company the world's largest dedicated semiconductor Foundry producing chips various Industries and they manufacture Advanced integrated circuits and their clients range from Apple Nvidia AMD and they do use all of this with Cutting Edge Technologies now if we look at the performance actually the opposite of asml they're up 103% over the last year over the last 10 years simil out formed massively the S&P which we are going to compare and show you later on but right now this is trading unlike asml which was at the bottom end of the 52e range as we can see at the upper end with a double strong buy from both Wall Street and Quant and a buy rating from Seeking Alpha and it does have a marginally higher dividend yield at 1.19% when we take a look at some very similar metrics we actually get overvaluation based on dividend yield Theory as 1.34 is below the 5year rolling but when we look at the forward P You could argue reasonable valuation currently sitting at 23 with the average at 22 then when we look at the earnings very similar in that we get double digit increases anticipated over the next year as well as 100% track record and as we can see if you believe they'll hit their 9005 EPS estimate the forward P right now for TSM sits at 22.9 then the valuation they get a D+ now as we did mention it should actually be lower given the 2025 figure so in essence it isn't too far off the sector median but these will differ depending on which valuation metric you do like to use in your own investment thesis their growth looks good add an A minus 23% sector at 4.4 forward looking 14% looking better than 5.52 of the sector comparative but what really stands out is their earnings per share 31.4% with the sector median a lot lower at 15.47% sector at 51 bottom line very very impressive 39 versus 3.9 and they cash from operations looking incredibly strong 50 .4 billion with a comparative at 98 million so quick recap double strong buy from both Quant and Wall Street a buy from seeing Alpha D+ on valuation not something we would agree with ourselves a minus on growth with an A+ on profitability and very similar to asml their balance sheet looks very good net debt to ebit D zero over the last 10 years and zero anticipated over the next 12 months and as we said this means it won't even take them similarly when we do look at institutions ownership a little bit lower at 16.51% around 12 a half billion worth of sales over the last year again very similar to asml with marginally more buys over the same time frame and when we do look at the most recent quarter again following the trend more selling than we do get buying but if you look over the last year there is a little bit more worth of buys now before we jump into the valuation of TSM we just want to highlight the performances of asml TSM against the S&P 500 now over the last year TSM massively out formed both the S&P as well as asml which has in fact come in lower out of the three over the Last 5 Years though we do get TSM and asml outperforming but TSM being the better performer and over the last 10 years asml TSM both very strong performers but TSM the number one with more than 1,9% and that is the total return so does essentially include reinvesting SE those dividends so jumping into the valuation we get $225 and as always TSM or any others 225 average of these three models with the current price when we do apply a 10% MOS it isn't quite there yet so it's near a few dollar shy 10% margin of safety with upside $245 as we can see translating to 19% so if we were to compare the two TSM does have less margin of safety as well as less upside but has been the stronger performer definitely a lot more growth from what analysts are expecting over the next 3 to 5 years now we also want to point out that there is the option to look into semiconductor ETFs if you want exposure to many rather than just one or two that you do believe are undervalued for example socks Q the reason why we talk about this is because it does have one of the lower expense ratios when you compare it to the likes of SMH we can see it is up around 27% over the last 12 months and for those interested in their Holdings well actually surprisingly Nvidia isn't number one we have broadcom around 13% but Nvidia does hold a substantial position at 11.5 and the company we just ran through now TSM sitting right there at 4.35 with asml pretty much an even split sitting below at 4.19 just considerations for people who do want to take a look at an ETF as opposed to individual stocks like we have covered today now when we do look at both of these companies asml and TSM both of them have their own Pros both of them have their own cons especially when we do put the valuation to one side so if we do start off with asml their Pros are they are a market leader they dominate the photgraphy market particularly in euv machines which are critical for advanced semiconductor Manufacturing in terms of demand the global semiconductor space relies heavily on asl's technology with their strong growth prospects tied to AI 5G as well as Automotive applications and in terms of the Moe its euv technology is unmatched creating a significant barrier to entry for the competitors now when we look at their cons valuation risk it does often as we've shown trade at a premium making it sensitive to Market downturns or shifts in sentiment and geopolitical risk they do rely on a global supply chain and trade relations for example the US China tensions which could over the long term pose some challenges finally Cy locality semiconductor space we've said many times does have this risk so as sml's performance May affected by downturns in the chip demand then we move to tsmc where is in fact the largest and most advanced semiconductor Foundry they manufacture chips for major companies Apple Nvidia AMD and they do also benefit from rising demand for AI 5G and high performance Computing Technologies and they are also the leader in Cutting Edge processes like 3nm manufacturing giving them an overall Competitive Edge and similar to asml in their cons the geopolitical risk TSM C's location in Taiwan does expose it to potential disruptions from us China tensions or in fact Regional conflicts although as we have said in earlier episodes they have in 2025 opened up a manufacturing plant in the US Arizona cyclicality also something to consider again and they also have competitive pressures from Rivals like Samsung and Intel who are investing heavily to close the overall technology Gap so do give us your thoughts below whether or not you're buying any of these whether you prefer one or the other or in fact as we mentioned earlier are considering semiconductor ETFs don't forget to sign up to the free Weekly News Eda below grab those spread c
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