저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
발언자는 최근 고점 대비 50% 이상 하락한 우량주(bruised blue chip)의 턴어라운드 투자 프레임워크를 소개한다. 블루칩 기준은 최근 10년 ROE 20% 이상이며, 상위 250개 기업군에서 약 1,007개 기업을 추린다. 하락 원인을 시장 요인, 기업 외부 경쟁, 기업 내부 자본 배분 실패로 나눠 분석하는 방법을 설명한다. 개별 종목 추천이 아니라는 면책을 명시했다.
다듬은 글
Anuj, this started with three of us writing this study. I mean, I sit in my office, Dhru Mehta, and Srinath, who is my assistant. Okay, so Srinath, this time we were asked what should we study. So two or three of these were, one to sell the market in the new high. So that was one topic, second was the turnaround, sir.
Bab, sir, we have not done the turnaround. Let's start with that. The first time we found that it's a very tough subject. Turnaround is a very tough subject, then we found a book and in that book he talked about how to make money. This fund is fundamentally money only by turnaround stocks in the US.
And he wrote a 30-page book on how to make money out of turnaround stocks. I said we got a framework, and now let's work on this. Okay, so there we talk about when any stock in falls by more than 50 percent from their recent highs, all-time highs, and Recent high last five years high in India five year high is the all time high always so generally when it falls more than 50 so then you have to find there could be hundreds of stocks like that but within them you have to find bruise blue chips and busted growth stocks when you find these you have to category stocks then you go about completing the process of buying but then we said this let's pick up the bruise blue chip part I mean after doing everything so we said turn around of bruise blue chips is the only segment we will do it next time if time permits we will do the busted growth stocks so this time we picked up bruise blue chip okay now then the first problem was what is the blue chip what is the blue chip I was going to come to that how do we define blue chip is it only based on market cap to decide what is a blue chip And because it's hard to tell what was or wasn't a blue chip, blue chip has to be defined, and I think, but after studying and with my experience, I said any company that has more than 20 percent for the last 10 years, okay, and of both size, so that company will term it as blue chip because 20 percent, you earned 10 years, which means you have some standing in the market, and you are of the size, so we said we look at only the top 250 companies, so that gives a sense of size, and 10 percent, 20 percent, so that gives about 80-90 companies, then the guys said they have a lot of large companies, very large companies, like a part of the rest of the 200, and more than 20 percent for the next 10 years, so we got 1007 companies, and that's it.
Now what is the blue chip? Chip is the company in the last five years what ever high is it in now after the five years complete it has fallen by more than 50% ok till 50% it is correction ok but below 5% it is broken now it is seriously broken because some big thought is in in a market some thinks that if a stock is above 1000 bucks some big thought the value of the company is 000 now it has fallen to 500 and below it means that the company is thoroughly broken and there must be some reason behind that ok is earnings misallocation and misallocation and competition and something must be there so then we will talk about analyzing the sources of trouble and what could be the remedy for that ok do you buy them ok in this report we will discuss the names of many stocks Pure is just an example, it should not be considered as a recommendation in any way.
Let me give this disclaimer first, Ramdev Sir, there is just one thing in this, now I am just giving some examples like there was S Bank or there was India Bus Housing or at one time there was Jat Airways, at one time there was Suzlon, all of these, although Suzlon may have made a comeback, all of them were not blue chips at one time, they were not blue chips, blue chips were first Nifty stocks, but if they were Nifty stocks then yes, yes at that point of time clearly if they had fallen from there that and see, it is completely not infallible, but but they have to be a blue chip, did Yes Bank make it to the Nifty, yes Bank or so definitely it would qualify as a blue chip and yes I mean it did recover, so my question is where do we decide whether it is a blue chip and where do we decide whether it is a blue chip or not, then the story ends.
Here's what it is: Ultimately, investing is not only a situation you have to take, you have to at the time see if something is bad and hurts, buy 50, 60 percent, it means it makes an interesting second, it is a blue chip or in fact, I would rather prefer more than the size, I would go by 20 percent, okay, okay, that's my preferred mode, so that makes me very comfortable because maybe on 20 for the last 10, it could be an X of Nifty, it could also be an X of Nifty, also any stock, actually as a framework, that makes me very comfortable, so that stock, why it has fallen, I mean, what has happened is it internal to the company and is it external to the company, you know, so you have to figure that out and then finally take a judgment whether this company is going to survive in a given situation, is it It is going to survive and more important is it is going to prosper, so generally the companies which are blue chips have a very strong tendency to come back, okay you know because it's like Rishabh Pant getting hurt, yes now, it means he had an accident, he was out for two-three years, but when he came, he hit and became a complete captain, so for example, if it's Virat Kohli or any Sachin, then let's say he scored zero in two-four innings, it means Sachin dozen becomes useless, Virat dozen becomes useless, when ever he comes back, he will hit a century again because he knows the game, he knows batting and he can bat in toughest of the situations, so these 20 RE blue chips, they have that core capability, yes you know, so when they come back, not only they come back to retrieve their last position, then they go for the kill, yes, so what I am betting on is the first A I mean your question is correct which one to leave which is broken is there a difference between broken and broken, yes between broken and broken, yes Ramdev sir because you have already talked about Mahindra-ECAT, yes but maybe they lagged behind a bit but here also there is a slight come back, your RO Moto has seen this come back, given us more a positive that brother there is a change of management from 2400 stocks to 5000 stocks, double in last one there is a massive come back on the change of the management and he has his own strategy, so in such companies, I mean where you have created so much wealth, there has been such a good dividend yield, everything has been there in it, then for how long do you believe that this is a break or it will come back, like in RO Moto for example I am talking about you, you had confidence that it will come back, there was no doubt, there was no doubt, like like Indian Hotel at 70 bucks, I had no doubt deal 70 bucks I had no doubt but I did not have a framework I went to Delhi and gave a speech somewhere where I said Bhaiya you should sell your real estate portfolio but that was just a one off discussion I have a framework now c This study is more about the framework than examples bhaiya how to think about a blue chip in trouble so in this you have discussed two or three things in Y Bruz one is internal factors one is stock related one is company related that once many then the stock itself falls that is a different factor one is some company related so what is the difference in this basically yes in the stock which is stock return it could be due to Covid the market itself fell by 50% so then the stock itself will fall by 50% from high right yes everything means nothing is spared at that time no yes yes except for two or four consumer stocks of Hindustan Ltd the rest of the stocks all get beaten so at that time static fell by 50% so it has become Bruh blue chip, okay, and its remedy is the same, let the market come back, and when the markets come back, all the like it happened in the Global Financial Crisis, in GFC, this is what happened, banks became one book below book, so I think ADFC has also fallen big time, at that, its remedy is the same, that the market must come back, and the market does come back, I mean, if you see every time the market falls in this manner, there is a lot of recovery in the next 12 months, in Covid, we saw all-time high in February, all-time low in March, and back in June-July, so during that period, you get an opportunity to buy Lako, Indian Hotels, Mahindra, all sorts of things, you get to throw away on sale, the whole lot happens, so that is market related, but that is not the main thing, the main thing is a company related, company related, company related has also got two types of problems, one internal to the company and external to the company.
How did external competition come, you are peacefully earning good money, running a shop and then you come to know that brother, this new guy comes like in telecom and says no, I will become number one, Mukesh Bhai says I want to become number one, so brother, it was completely destroyed, so you mean for one year, like for 10 years, I mean for five to six years, the entire market was destroyed, yes, so 12 players were reduced to three, three players were left, and what is there in that too, then I want % market share number one, so you made it from zero to number one, so what happened in that, the profitability of the entire industry was finished, so like Indian stocks, their price went up to 250, that means absolutely, from there your price went up to 1500, yes, but you should have that understanding, Bha, this is a bruise, right now I made maximum money in Indian, you know, in 2003 you had taken a lower price than the IPO, yes, you were, so that one, you know, it was an opportunity, so that is External to the company, the company did the company, yes, what is the second thing, companies also make mistakes, like the biggest problem with the company is successful companies, they misallocate capital, like CG Power, yes, CG Power, so I would say mismanagement, but take Mahindra, you bought Sang, you bought Tata Steel, Corus, you bought Corus, so all this, I mean, brother, you have ambition, some banker comes and explains that you will get money at 3, you will earn money, and people go away, I mean, confident, we can do it here, so we can do it there, but some how dozens work, then it creates problem, then getting out is a big problem and it wastes all the energy of the company, but then it still remains a blue chip, like Mahindra, number one in tractors, absolutely, that was cash, then SUVs also reduce the focus, so then they sold off Sangama, so that is completely internal to Mandra, so there are other problems, okay There can be all three types of problems in one company only, there could be problems, there could be external problems and they could be market related problems, so what happens is finally all the problems come together and along with that the market also sinks due to some reason, then you get shares at the lowest price, but now how will that happen, how will it play out, how will you get the opportunity, that is the point of time, but you have the framework that in what ways the shares of the company fall, exactly and
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