저자: RamdevAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
자동자막 기준 대담. 최근 실적 부진 종목(아시안페인트 등)은 조정일 뿐 '폭락(bruise)'은 아니라고 봄. 시장 고점에서 소수 종목 조정은 시간이 걸린다는 입장. 실적 악화는 선거·소비둔화 영향으로 설명하며, 4분기 반등과 내년 상반기 본격 회복을 기대. 1Q 이후 기업 실적 개선 기대 및 경제 구조 변화(소비→capex 중심) 언급. 신임 RBI 총재의 신용 확대 기대 발언 포함.
다듬은 글
Absolutely fine, Ramdev Sir, as of today, based on just one case study, which stocks do you think will fall in the bruise category? We have given a list, see, in that, some 10-12 companies, we the companies are getting bruises. Right now, I am not sure. The first thing is that very few companies are crossing 50%.
So, for me, it is only a correction. This is not a bruise. Till 50C, what happens, the market's optimum, it takes time to kill it. I mean, a series of disruptors are necessary, only then the market disruptors earn money. People do not let it go easily, so it will take time. I was just talking about one or two Adani groups, there are a lot of external and internal stocks in it.
I am not able to understand whether it is external or internal. But till then, there is a special thing about the Samsi market. Yes, not in this, do not do anything that you do not understand in any study. So, stay away from something. You don't understand, if you understand then already you can see the breezing is deep and you know so like Asian Paints is at 35 and the corporate is on and the first quarter results have come out bad, now the three quarters will definitely be bad, so you know, well on top of that, you see how it is happening, this corporate warfare is going on, there is consumption slowing down, now see how, I mean, one problem comes, it comes from multiple sides, of course, now if you go and ask the competition, then they say that it has nothing to do with competition, consumption is bad, Q3 is also beaten, the Diwali one, so he is saying brother, we do n't have a problem with competition, we have a problem with the growth of the industry, so slow down of the industry that is also pushing problem, so generally what happens is that two, three, four times, three, four, five quarters come out bad, then people start getting depressed, well, those who bought at a little below 50, no one read the report and suppose they bought the goods at 50 below after one quarter and If it falls by 10, then the same person comes to sell it, so what does this mean, it is not that easy to write this, practicing this is very easy, so the guys who have practiced this, I have not practiced, I have practiced, just the other way around, high quality company in growth mode, that we have practiced as QGL P, this is our antithesis of my own style, absolutely, well, this is a very wonderful thing that you have said, in your wealth creation study, you put 100 biggest wealth creators, in that you put most consistent, big wealth creators and also put biggest wealth creators, personally, what is your favorite, wealth creators with consistency, I love to see, first of all, our old one is largest and fastest, okay, one actually when both largest and fastest come together in the same company, which happened in the time of tech when Fossis, Wipro, they used to be both fastest and biggest, so I mean when large size Very rarely you will find large wealth creation at a rapid pace.
Okay, generally size is the enemy of speed. You know, that means 50% growth or 100% growth can happen on a large cap. What happens is, start with Rs 5-6000 crore and increase it to Rs 1 lakh crore, that is possible. But, making Rs 1 lakh crore to Rs 10 lakh crore is very tough. So when both happen, it means something very big, that is, an economic opportunity came, which was of White to K, that means, from one billion dollar export, export became 50 billion dollar.
India became a global software powerhouse, it became Digital India. So, this type of transformation is happening right now in retail, what is happening in Quick Commerce, in Trent, or what is happening in Zomato etc., Zomato Zepto and what is this name, Blanket, what is happening in this is a huge transition, that is, a trillion dollar kind of opportunity.
Even if there is a transit at 15, there is a huge opportunity, you know, and rapid means it is happening at a very fast pace, absolutely, and this is what Rakesh ji and Ramdev ji have mastered in these things, when to take them in good quantity, Ramdev sir, this is a matter of fact, we have thoroughly studied your way, I can talk about this for three hours, it will never end, this is such a wonderful topic, but now I would like to ask you a couple of questions on the current market scenario, yesterday there was a big development, the new RBI Governor came on board, how do you see this development and what is your view on the continuity and all that will remain in the market at this time, first of all, the work done by the outgoing Governor in the last six years, the kind of stability he brought and you know, so he really handled it with a lot of maturity, so I think he is living a fantastic legacy for the new Governor, now the new Governor is coming from a brilliant background, of course you know I am an IAS officer and Revenue Secretary.
So, I think he must be knowing the pain of slowing down of tax collections. So, I think I may be a bullish guy, always an optimist guy. I would expect that he will accelerate the credit flow in the system. And for that, what all needs to be done? That, of course, he understands. And that's in my mind.
GDP growth means credit growth and GDP growth means tax growth. So, now what the tactics and how they will approach the bureaucracy, the finance ministry, the RBI, and the fiscal authorities, I don't know, will see unfolding in the next 5-10 days. Of course, one more thing is that there will be a big correction in the market.
The last earnings season was very bad. You always say that you give us the numbers and you cut it a little bit. But is there any chance of this pain ending, Ramdev Sir? Or is there still some more pain? The market will remain in the main, the [ __ ] end of this thing earnings earnings depotment because it was really because of this first quarter problem of election and then doubt and then intense rain all together happened and election happened so people think it was one of the most intense election you know khacha nahi ho raha tha ha so woh bhi kya kya election ke sab woh chakkar hoti hai so now I think now start warming up the machine so I don't think q3 will be anything worth while I think in q4 there will be a bumper this thing but the real real spill over and action will be in the first half of next year so q4 and first half of next year I would be very hopeful that economy will roar back into the lead by see if you see the our report also has written if you see the actually earnings tact change from 2020 it was about 450 457 to be exact Nifty earnings in 2020 and it was lingering at about 7% for the last six years then in post covid it shot off at the rate of 18% and in the next four years it doubled to 15% that was in last year was 24% now they were expecting same 15% growth which got tipped this year I think there is a fundamental shift in the structure of the economy and that is showing the growth I think pre covid we were very very conjunction dominated post covid it became capex dominated more pt government capex is dominated so the type of companies which did very well till 2020 like Nestle Lever Asian Paints Merco I think those companies are struggling right now ok Ramde sir thank you very much and today in the evening your presentation will be and you will give details on wealth creation study Will be presenting I look forward to that thank you so much for joining us in the studio today thank you
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