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everybody this is Tom Lee everybody this is Tom Nash and Tom Lee was just on CNBC talking about the rest of 2024 and you won't believe what he said he absolutely dropped some massive bomb shells check it out Tom it's weird we are sitting very near all-time highs and and yet it does feel like there is some nervousness in the Market at this point I think this coming Wednesday Becky will really answer a lot of questions we're expecting that to be a pretty good report lower than expected in inflation and I think it's going to help investors get to this place where we can have pretty good growth in the economy uh there's some slack in the labor markets but inflation's Falling fast enough for the FED to to actually cut rates this year and of course that'd be great for stocks now look I'm going to be honest with you I think a lot of people owe Tom Lee apologies for how they spoke about him in 2023 when they called him the pable the guy that only has one gear that is forward etc etc turns out he was right and the rest of these so-call words were wrong now I'm not going to be sitting here pretending like I didn't think that 2023 is going to be a bad year I did Tomley didn't and he was very vocal about it when the grain was definitely not in his Direction but nevertheless he was right and now he's back on CNBC rightfully so leading this sheep into the rest of 2024 trying to explain to them how to invest in this market because as you heard the host they asked him one simple question like look Tom we're currently at alltime highs money is Flowing everywhere there's a lot of Euphoria a lot of excitement but people are also nervous because people kind of starting to fear that this might be the beginning of the top and if this is the beginning of the top maybe it's a good time to sell we're actually freaking out because we don't know what we're doing here but you're the goat tell us what to do and I think that was a solid question I think it kind of depicts quite correctly what's going on right now in the market you have a lot of the Sho shine boy examples or the old lady in the grocery store I honestly keep hearing about people who have no business being in the stock market starting to buy Nvidia stock so I also kind of get that vibe that we're really getting close to this dangerous territory of extreme greed and Tom Lee was asked exactly that question are we close to the top or is this just the beginning what should we do and he basically said one thing look guys I'm not the Oracle I don't know but there's one thing I can't tell you which is what happens Wednesday is going to dictate a lot about what happens for the rest of the year right now the market has gone through this very weird situation we started the market with absolutely extreme optimism we were certain there's going to be multiple rate hikes Abdu wazu then we had to pull back to three rate hikes the market didn't like it but then adjusted it and now we're optimistic again so Tomy is saying look guys whatever comes out out of Wednesday's CPI data the inflation data that comes out tomorrow it's going to dictate a lot of how the market looks for the near future now basically what he's telling you is they saying look guys I believe that the market is going to be reassured after Wednesday once the data comes out and once the data is better better than expected which is what Tom Lee is predicting then the market will be reassured that we will get three rate Cuts this year and five rate Cuts next year and it's going to keep climbing up so that is his thesis he might be right he might be wrong but he was very clear about it he didn't dodge the question he didn't try to cover both sides and he absolutely answered the question which is not something you see often on CNBC lately now he was also talking about the FED support now they've asked him an excellent question credit what credits do they've asked him a great question great question CNBC does it matter if the FED Cuts rates or not if the economy is really strong anyway will earnings be able to justify the valuations at this point and they've asked him look Tom what happens if the Federal Reserve pivots again and if they go from hey we're going to reduce rates real soon to you know what we're not going to reduce rates and maybe we will even increase rates what happens if that actually is the case right and that's a great question and he answered it to Perfection he said look guys there's three scenarios here I think the FED being supportive of the economy so managing the business cycle is the most important thing in the last two years the Fed was fighting inflation and therefore hawkish that was tougher equities but if we're in a mode where the FED doesn't know how many cuts it needs to make but it actually wants to support the business cycle that's good for stocks so I don't think you need to have three Ray Cuts you you could even have a a good scenario where the FED only Cuts once but if the fed's in a position where they feel they need to actually raise interest rates that that'd be bad for stocks one scenario is that the FED starts cutting rates in 2024 if that is the case the market is going to fly up second scenario if the FED keeps the rate where it is right now and does not change it for the rest of 2024 the market the economy is strong enough to still push the market upwards without any rate Cuts but he also said if the Federal Reserve for God knows what reason decides to basically pivot again and start increasing rates again that is going to be catastrophic for for the market because right now every single stock price out there is pricing in three rate cuts the drop to zero rate Cuts might not be that much but the drop to rate increase is going to be catastrophic and if that happens the market is going to crash now that's a fair answer and I believe it is 100% accurate now then in the middle of the interview they asked him about the Jamie Diamond letter which we covered in yesterday's video basically saying look Jamie Diamond just came out with a 61-page letter literally saying the opposite complete opposite of what you're saying about where the market is headed for the rest of this year you're both optimistic about the rest of the next few five years about AI about technology and all that and he shares your enthusiasm he actually said AI is like electricity right but Jamie Diamond unlike you Tomley is saying that the rest of 2024 is going to be horrendous in fact he actually said that there's a combination of things that might be even worse than World War I that's a little bit of an exaggeration but I get even Jamie Diamond has to clickbait so basically they confront with it Jamie Diamond AKA Jamie weekend later hey Tom hold on just a moment we've got some breaking news we'd actually like to get your reaction so if you don't mind listening at uh we just have some news uh literally Crossing this moment uh which is the Jamie diamonds uh JP Mor Jamie Diamond's JP Morgan uh is publishing his annual letter to shareholders pricing in a 70 to 80% chance of a soft Landing but Diamond thinks the odds are quote a lot lower he cites persistent inflationary pressures including what he says are quote ongoing fiscal spending remilitarization of the world restructuring of global trade and capital uh needs of the new green economy um I think Jamie's doing his shareholders uh justice it because they they want to hear from him about all the concerns out there I think he does a great job of detailing all the things that could go wrong but at the end of the day when when it comes to markets I think markets tend to price concerns very quickly I mean think I think that's really been the concern for the last two years is is a hard landing and now that inflationary pressures are easing at a time when consumers don't have a lot of Leverage there's all this you know there's Six Trillion of cash on the sidelines and inflation we don't really know how quickly it's going to fall but our bet at fun strad is that it's going to fall pretty quickly means uh some of the concerns he listed about a hard Landing are because of sticky inflation if and if it's softer I I think we're going to have quite a good economy is is this a two-pronged outlook on the on the economy and the markets though Tom is inflation the one big issue and if Wednesday proves that it's a hotter than anticipated or hotter than expected CPI number would you change your ideas about what that means for both of those things for the long term or for the year um that's right I I think if inflation because Mark is going to be the first clean CPI report we know out of Europe they've come in pretty soft they've come in better than expected if it comes in higher than expected then I think it raises the question that the inflation is quite stubborn and getting to that from 3 to two is going to be difficult on the other hand if it is a soft report and we think it's the probabilties favor below a point3 that's consensus core point3 I think it's going to change a lot of people's minds that inflation may not be that stubborn yeah um you have been telling people to buy or you yourself have been buying um on any dips and and by dips we're not talking five or 10% drops you're talking 2% drops and you'd be buying into the market that's right I think that there's many reasons that we still think there's gas in the tank in this rally part of it is that we do think the inflation trajectory is is on a Glide path lower than consensus expects the second is I think there's too much caution out there you know when you look at Prime brokerage borrowings or basically leverage in the market it's still below where it was October 2021 there's still 6 trillion of cash on the sidelines and our conversations with clients they're still quite cautious so as long as investors are top calling and are really looking at the world half empty I think stocks can still rise on this wall of worry and they basically say well Tom what is your stance and he says one interesting thing and he alludes to it he doesn't say it directly he said look guys you have to understand that he's talking about the risk now what he's saying here and that's something that he can't say on television but I can s some a YouTuber he's saying look Jamie Diamond manages a bank in fact Jamie Diamond manages the biggest bank in America his job is to warn you about the worst possible scenario so you prepare for the worst he's like a lawyer he's not going to tell you everything is going to be right he's always going to show you where things can come and surprise you that is his job to be more risk averse and more careful and that is why he tends to be a little bit more bearish than me to my job is just to make money for myself and my clients I'm not a bank and he's 100% on point but then he adds another very smart observation and I'm sorry for creaming here Tom Lee but I absolutely agree with him and I'm going to call it like I see it he also says look at the end of the day me and Jamie Diamond only disagree on one thing which is the direction of inflation because Jamie Diamond literally says that the root of all problems that he sees for the rest of 2024 is going to be higher inflation that higher inflation is going to lead to higher interest rates which going to slow down the economy and cause stagflation right I'm saying Tom Lee that is not me Tom Tom Lee is saying look guys that is where we disagree I think that inflation is on the way down not on the way up and because the inflation is on the way down the FED will have to cut rates and it's going to pump the economy which is going to pump the stock market so we only disagree on one thing which is the direction of inflation not anything else and that is going to be resolved really quickly we're going to find out Wednesday and we're going to find out next month exactly who's right about inflation and Tom Le seems to be very confident that his prediction is the more correct one we won't know until a few months pass by unless any of you have a DeLorean 1.21 gigabytes or gigawatts or whatever that hell that is now I think that that was a good thing to confront him with what Jamie Diamond said even though I like to hear Tom Lee talk about his predictions and not talk about Jamie Diamond's predictions but I think that was a good little segment there now he did say one important thing at the end which I think was the most important thing of the entire conversation and he said look guys I believe there's still massive amounts of gasoline in the tank which is going to propel the market into new highs in 2024 like we haven't ever seen before now the reason he's seeing that happen is because of two elements number one there's $6 trillion dollar of money that was not yet put in play because people were fearing they thought the market is going to crash they missed the boat and and those $6 trillion on the sidelines are waiting for any kind of dip that is why in the past few weeks every time the market dipped just a little bit it got filled up immediately because there $6 trillion and they're going to keep feeding into that dep not letting the market Fall the other thing he's saying is like saying look guys at the end of the day it's an inflation equation if inflation is going to drop like I think it is there is no way for the market not to reflect that inflation drops money becomes cheaper economy gets infused with lots of cash businesses report cre earnings and then the stock prices fly up simple as that now that thesis makes perfect sense to me one thing I will tell you here is that this whole thing is actually not even about inflation the whole Jamie Diamond versus Tom Lee is actually about one thing which is oil prices if you think about it everything that happens next is about inflation right but everything that is inflation is pretty much oil at this point anything that the FED could have dropped because of 5.25 interest rates have already dropped the real estate Market is in chambles nobody's moving anything the market is very very tight right now with respect to interest rates the only thing the Federal Reserve cannot control with their interest rates policy is the global Energy prices mainly crude oil now crude oil if it moves up it's going to push inflation up despite what the FED does if that happens the FED is not going to be able to reduce rates and that's going to push the market down from its Olympus of expectations of eight rate Cuts in the next couple of years now at the end of the day it's a macroeconomic question ask yourself this question do you believe oil price is going to push up in a manner that's going to slow the fed's pivot or not that is the whole difference between Jamie Diamond and Tom Lee now I'm going to be honest with you I'm in the letter Camp I think Tom Lee is 100% right I think we're going to have a great year in 2024 but at the end of the day you can't discount what Jamie Diamond warns you about you can't just ignore the risks and saying ah I think it's wrong you have to prepare and you have to build your portfolio to actually be ready for things to hit the fan you know what things I'm talking about here now I'm going to tell you in a second how to do that now before I do one little thing if you haven't yet what are you waiting for join our Discord discord.gg Nash it is literally free to join free to join just join 10,000 people talking about stocks tips information a lot of stuff going on on Discord join for free also make sure you check out our Academy we're teaching you how to become better investors the group is actually absolutely doing phenomenal we've done DCFS we done Financial modeling we've done financial statements we're actually currently talking about PE and different ratios and multiples we're teaching you tools it's not about stock tips if you want to get better at this game join the academy and of course don't forget to claim your one week free of stock MVP stock MVP is a platform I built for you guys it's a platform I built because I couldn't find anything like this in the market I built it for myself and now you can use it as well try it for a week for free if you like it stay on board and if not no harm no fault now about how to prepare I've made a whole freaking video reacting to what Jamie Diamond said and in that video I broke down five things I'm doing to prepare for that negative scenario that video which is absolutely free to watch it's not on my patreon it's not behind my pable it is free to watch I'm going to put it on the screen right now go watch that video I'll see you there in just a second and before you do don't forget to slap that like button subscribe if you haven't and most importantly hit that little bell so you get notified when I upload next thank you so much I'll see you in that video in just a second click the video click the video
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