저자: AngeloZeno,JimKellerer · 외국인
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반도체 섹터는 7월 중간 고점 대비 약 15% 하락한 중간 사이클 소화 국면으로 보며, 향후 2개월 정도 조정 가능성을 언급. 자동차·산업용 아날로그 업종은 회복이 기대만큼 빠르지 않음. 반면 AI 성장주 선호는 유지. Angelo는 마이크론 최선호, 엔비디아·브로드컴 차선호. Jim은 아날로그 기업 실적 부진(TI, ADI 이익 30% 이상 감소)을 지적하나 전체 반도체 매출은 견조하고 밸류에이션은 매력적이라 봄. 인텔은 턴어라운드 초기로 최선호 제외, Qualcomm·TI 긍정적 언급.
다듬은 글
time now for the 360 round we're looking at semiconductors for that I want to bring in our panel for today we've got Angelo Zeno senior Equity analyst cfra research and Jim kellerer director of research and Senior technology analyst Argus research all right Angela we'll start with you I know you've got a lot of notes out on a variety of these companies uh thoughts on the sector overall right now so you know thanks for having me when we think about the the broader semiconductor industry right now I'd kind of say we're in this midcycle digestion phase that you typically actually see happening within kind of the the semiconductor Cycles here and um you know we essentially saw an intermediate top we think back in July we're about 15% below that high if you kind of look at the broader semiconductor industry and um our view is uh you know we're going to continue to digest here over the next kind of two months or so um partly you know election oriented geopolitical concerns out there also you know we've got to make sure that you know you've got you've got these kind of cyclical concerns that still are out there look at a company like FedEx reporting last night so some of these analog industrial type of Automotive names um probably not recovering or will recover maybe at the pace that some had hoped for and then of course you know some of these secular plays out there tied to AI continues to be extremely strong out there but again I mean we've seen multiples really kind of expand significantly since the start of this cycle and I think we're just kind of in that digestion phase but overall um we continue to favor the more AI growth oriented type names at this point in time relative to some of those kind of value oriented um type of names um you know that are more cyclically oriented and then Jim let's get your broad Strokes th thought on uh the overall space good morning Diane nice to meet you uh you know Echo echoing some of the things Angelo said we have seen parts of the uh semi conductor complex uh performing kind of weakly if you look at the second quarter earnings from those companies in Mar coverage that are really exposed to automotive and Industrial and that would be like Texas Instruments and Analog Devices both earnings down over 30% and revenue down you know uh microchip and and a couple of others that are very exposed the embedded Market down on the other hand overall semiconductor sales remain pretty robust uh June was great according the semiconductor industry Association uh one of the strongest months there's only a few months stronger in total semiconductor sales and obviously uh Nvidia is really an outlier here they're really kind of they're so big they're dragging the whole sector behind them uh but at the same time the one thing I would say is when we look at 2023 when the AI hysteria was peaking the uh 14 semiconductor stocks or so and that does not include semic cap equipment but just the semiconductor stocks uh Argus covers were up like 60% on average and this year it's much more muted with the with the exception of Nvidia again but the on average that groups up about 12% so we haven't seen a valuations sore out of sight they've gotten a little more attractive and the fundamentals remain very good all right uh J make a great Point especially when you think about Nvidia I often like my analogy for that is it's like the US saying bolt of uh the sector uh and so it's a leader in simmies and it's just it's been a leader in general so Angela I got to ask you I know you cover a lot of these from Invidia to Marvel Qualcomm broadcom AMD what are your favorite three out of the group favorite three so I'd say kind of our top pick right now at the moment is uh marll it has kind of been the you know the last couple of quarters but when you kind of look at you know specifically on the AI side of things um you know tied to the data center here you kind of look at um you know name like Nvidia has done phenomenal um and we think they are going to be an absolute they are a free cash flow monster but they'll continue to see significantly um significant Improvement on the Free Cash Flow side of things in fact we think they hit hundred billion dollar run rate by the end of next year um which is you know second to only um Apple out there kind of within the S&P 500 but you know I would say marll is our top pick because of the fact that they will see growth accelerate as we've now kind of seen a bottoming in most most of their kind of um non AI uh type markets out there those are markets that have declined about 50 to 70% and then when you kind of look at their AI representation both on kind of um the custom silicon side of things you know the more compute side of things as well as on um you know on the networking side of things we still see some nice upside on both fronts so there's going to be a nice combination of that kind of AI and non AI tilt that will allow their business to accelerate whereas the likes of Nvidia even though Blackwell will kind be kind of be a nice growth driver here in 2025 it will see growth rates start to decelerate um now I will say kind of you know in terms of our next top two picks I I would still say Nvidia and broadcom would uh be the names that you know we feel kind of strongest about kind of given the growth prospects for both those companies and we think valuations actually on both those fronts uh remain extremely attractive and again both type of uh going to be compute driven in terms of video with Blackwell and they will start to see kind of a sequential acceleration we think in in terms of the growth rate as we kind of go into the January April quarters and then on broadcom with their compute business they're essentially kind of the second alternative we think to nvidia's um gpus out there and as kind of more of these um internally uh internal chips are um being designed by these um hyperscalers um broadcom will probably be the biggest beneficiary there all right and Jim let me kick it over to you and tell me what's your what's your favorite what's the leader to you in this space and uh what do you like least well we do think that you know Intel is in the very early days of its turnaround uh so I'd say that's the least favorite name uh you know happy to see that they're trying to establish their Foundry business as an independent business and and similarly the uh tie up with Amazon and Central Ohio and just in general uh building ships uh on their 18 angstrom node is is very positive for them but they're a long way away from getting to profitable I'd say uh you know in addition to Nvidia one thing I would say about Nvidia echoing uh Angelo again is that the valuations are favorable The Five-Year PE is higher than the 2-year forward PE and a lot of price-based multiples have e Etc uh trading at discounts which historical it's doing so well also you know with Nvidia the law of large numbers will begin to reduce percentage growth rates but pay attention to the uh dollar change in Revenue uh we went from 200% Revenue growth in fiscal 204 we'll get something like 100% in 2025 and like 40% next year but you're adding like 50 billion in Revenue each year uh at least so we'll see how things go and yes the H uh the Blackwell is extremely promising but two names I would mention one would be Qualcomm uh I think they are doing a great job in expanding their franchise in uh in the in the smart device space particularly into medical Automotive RF frontend other areas and then the other one I'd mention again is Texas Instruments uh they're going to have a negative TopLine in the current quarter and maybe they get to slightly positive Top Line in 4q uh but then they should start turning it around again as their industrial Automotive uh Communications infrastructure markets come back so those are three names I like right here uh interesting analysis I'm glad you did clarify that uh uh with regard to Intel that's least favorite there I mean that stock down more than 50% uh it'll be interesting to see uh how it does thank you both uh for joining us here on trading 360
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