저자: KimForest/AndrewGraham · 외국인
요약 보기
반도체 섹터 급락 배경을 논의. AI 도입은 예상보다 느리고 선형적이지 않으며 엔비디아·브로드컴 실적은 수요 둔화 신호로 해석됨. 고용 둔화로 경기 민감주 매도 압력. Andrew는 AI 트레이드가 저렴해졌다고 보며 SOX 기술적 지지선까지 약 9% 하락 여지를 언급, 엔비디아 매수 가격대 $95 제시, 브로드컴을 최선호주로 꼽음. Kim은 AMD가 ZT 인수와 영업 인력 영입으로 엔비디아 추격 가능성을 주장. 인텔은 Andrew가 8~9년째 비중 축소 상태이나 열린 태도 유지.
다듬은 글
it's time for our 360 round where we focus on the semiconductor space it's really important to sort of put this into perspective the S&P 500's down 3.8% for the week the NASDAQ is down 52% for the week let's say you were busy and you were checking your semiconductor stocks many of those are down between 10 and 15% this week Nvidia asml AMD broadcom when you see these names down so dramatically you say to yourself now what this is our discussion Kim Forest is with us founder Chief investment officer of boka capital partners and Andrew Graham CEO of Jackson Square Capital Where Do We Begin Kim what do you think what do you say when you see those numbers well two things one is uh something that I've been talking about for a very long time is the roll out of AI is not going to go as smoothly and certainly not as linearly or as fast as anybody believed and I think the earnings from uh Nvidia and today yesterday's broadcom kind of show that while you know their products are still in demand they are not white hot Demand anymore and the demand doesn't seem to be growing so that's the first concern the second concern is today's jobs numbers and the revisions to the prior jobs numbers show a slowing demand for labor which also indicates probably a slowing economy and if you are an old-fashioned tra Trader you want to get rid of um cyclical stocks and semis are very cyclical or have been in the past I'm not sure that they really are anymore but they have been in the past and you're going to sell them and that's how you get to Friday and you know your stocks are really down yeah we're seeing a major sell off and the question is you know is this an AI play for cheap or are we concerned to your point uh Kim making some concerning comments um what say you Andrew I think it's an AI trade for cheap I mean it's a crowded long position there's no doubt about that the semi- trade is fatigued and the Philadelphia semiconductor index the technical picture on it looks kind of sick you know it looks like it's probably got maybe 9% downside to support levels um don't hold me to that necessarily because I think some of these are holding in nicely Nvidia and broadcom to be specific so yeah Kim's Point rate cuts um improve the relative attractiveness of cyclical laggards and that's kind of where the money's flowing in the moment at the moment today's downtick uh jobs related downtick if it leads to a increased spike in volatility will lead to multiple compressions some of these semis have high multiples so they could come could come in here but I see the Nvidia report and the broadcom report is just continued strength so for NVIDIA you're not worried about the department of of Justice uh there were reports that Nvidia uh reached out to the Department of Justice and and and confirmed there was no subpoena in fact and that that Bloomberg report was wrong but it was enough to sort of startle the markets but Andrew you would buy Nvidia you like that one right is that correct yeah it's um our biggest holding at Jackson Square capital and broadcom is right up there in the top 10 but uh yeah there's a level probably to buy Nvidia maybe it's $95 I think that's what we've penciled out but um yeah the doj investigation it's fine you can look into it it's not like Nvidia doesn't have uh competition they clearly do if you take the uh custom Asic shipments from broadcom it's a number one leader in custom as6 and you add Marvel's you get unit shipments that equal that of uh of Nvidia and gpus so they've got competition there and they've got competition on the networking um side with Arista in in Ethernet and what do you think about Nvidia Kim I think it's interesting and I do think they're the leader right now I mean I'm uh clean of the obvious on that one and I think though they probably have a good 36 month lead on anybody out there that wants to um chew into their revenue and more important that margin that they are able to get I am thinking that AMD is coming after the them hard um the ZT acquisition they're going to get a thousand Engineers that are going to be able to help am AMD better create products that will go right into the the server blades and I think that's important that's something that um Nvidia doesn't do right now and I think AMD is a genius for that and then they scooped up the big salesman um again from Nvidia so all signs point to AMD as that is their target and I think there is you know certainly room for more than one uh GPU and uh you know inference engine provider so I think it's going to be a great race and keep your eye on AMD yeah a and you made it clear Andrew that while Intel I think everybody thought Intel's a great company and then we're disappointed and disappointed again you're out on Intel Andrew now yeah I have been for maybe eight years or or nine years so I'm open-minded though I mean really we're at the end I mean keep in mind I think we're at the end of a bad cycle for semiconductors we're sitting here and saying oh these stocks have done so well but really in the broad semiconductor space we're just you know we're just leaving a demand Le downturn and so you got to keep an open mind that Intel can make a turn I think a lot of things that Intel did were idiosyncratic they were self-inflicted wounds or unforced errors and um they've got to work through that I think they're trying to right now but I keep it open in mind we'll come back to it maybe once they get close to reinstating the dividend or something but not today today I think it's broadcom that's our number one pick I like it post earnings and um we'll add level are you concerned about demand Andrew um do you think that it's slowing we were talking about whether or not this group is linear or um or do you think it's growing and sort of exponential at this point exponential so when you look at compute workloads getting more sophisticated companies you know hyp scalers oems want to optimize performance they want to optimize power consumption at a lower cost of ownership oop sorry my lights just went out that's the uh that that's that's what you're getting with these custom Asic chips right custom Asic businesses a 30 billion dollar business growing at 20 to 25% compound rate of growth um and and broadcom is the leader there so they're doing 3D you know next Generation 3D chip stacking with tsmc it is um it's yeah yeah number one pack um just Kim yeah Kim I think about rates coming down how do you think that could Faire for the group quickly well again I think a lot of people have been trained that semis are uh are cyclical and I don't largely agree with that because I think they are the thing that drives our economy and sure you're going to get a bump up whenever companies start hiring again and they have to support com uh new people with some sort of device whether that's a tablet or a PC and then you know more capacity on their networks you get that but I think for the foreseeable future the trends are that businesses are looking for productivity semiconductors are the thing that gives it to them and whether that's in a data center or closer to home that regardless of what's happening in the economy that's where spending's going to be even in a downturn because companies need productivity great to see you both Kim Forest at boa Capital Partners Andrew Graham at Jackson Square capital thank you
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