저자: EverythingMoney채널진행자 · 외국인
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엔비디아는 재무지표(ROE·현금흐름·유동성)가 양호하나 PER 85로 고평가. 매출 성장률 34%는 지속 불가능하다고 보고, 장기 성장률을 낮춰 계산하면 적정가는 약 100달러 수준. 현 주가 516달러 대비 큰 하락이 필요하다는 입장.
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paul we have some some requests for nvidia um i had it on my list as well do you want to look at this is off the patreon questline and some people in the comments are uh are asking so we appreciate the kind of video before but yeah let's put up right now for for our live viewers uh nvidia what do they do again 320 billion dollar company okay 320 pe oh 85 what happened there are they up a lot this year oh gsop they're up a ton this year so their p e is very high 85 but profit margin big check mark 28 with growth margin of 63 so that's really good so they have an x and a p e but let's see there could be a reason why the pe is very high maybe they had a big write-off or something look at this adorable dividend stuff adorable why even for the dividend check out you idiots okay how about pillar number three is revenue growth over the past five years paul it's doubled but from 5 billion to 11 billion but i'm going to bet there were some acquisitions in here that made this big jump here so we'll look at that but remember there's a way there's two ways of growing organically through your own you know internal growth or making acquisitions of course i want the business to internally organically grow more than acquisitions but technically it's still a check mark uh they still did grow over the last five years okay so their profit 614 million to 2.8 billion so definite check mark there okay that's incredible how is shares outstanding we want this going down now consistently growing their shares outstanding here not by much but they are up about ten percent so remember before if you owned one share your shares now by about ten percent less than the company that it did before they are diluting minorly um in the last five years how about pillar number six is current assets over current liabilities go ahead paul all right 14.4 billion in current assets current liabilities wow 3.7 definite check mark there and 11.55 and total liabilities they have 3 billion more than their current than their total liabilities and it's not much about one percent less than the total market cap so that's really awesome they have more cash on hand than all liabilities total uh how about free cash flow growth paul which is pillar number seven all right you ready i got it definitely definitely a growth from 1.1 billion to 4.3 billion so 1.1 4.3 3.1 3 1.5 average is 2.6 paul now there's a lot of growth in the last five years in the free cash flow so 2.6 you said what was it 2.6 2.6 yeah i might multiply this by a bigger number than 20 because the growth has been a lot now let's look at their um let's look at their uh oh wow they didn't make any acquisitions what that was all organic growth guys how can somebody please explain this to me so here's the line in the cash flow statement remember i said before their revenue jumped up a lot so probably acquisitions but there were no acquisitions in the last five years six years so anyways seth um you know maybe this is worth 25 times free cash flow because they're they're swayed in the last yeah what is 25 times the free cash flow 25 is a 66 billion okay and they're at the market is 320.
no no no no their average was four no their average was 2.6 paul oh 2.6 yeah oh geez okay let's go to the last three years then because they jumped up so three three point one oh david they released 30 new uh the new 30 series graphic cards oh wow didn't they take market share from intel maybe so oh yeah and look at this david said in the last few years they've been selling cards to mine bitcoin of course ah so this is an interesting one let's go to my sheet here can i share my sheet real quick yeah go ahead paul let me go to my sh my sheet share application window it talks about the stock so the revenue growth has been 34.3 that is probably not sustainable so i'm going to push that down to 50 on the high side it might even be lower than that if i want 10 mpv 15 keep the profit margin the same i currently have a price of 175 for the stock and it's at 5 16.
so it needs to drop a lot but that makes sense it needs to be a 70 drop because currently the pe is 85 so that does make sense if that's the case and that's still assuming 17 revenue growth a year for five years i don't think that's sustainable so really guys i hate to say it i'm looking to stock under a hundred dollars a share probably yeah it's mostly it's currently at five yeah it's currently at five sixteen and even in the depths of covet it was 196 in the end of march 196 bucks oh good so it's still i mean guys this is a great company financially obviously they're doing a great job but i don't think 34 revenue goes to sustainable over long periods of time bye
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