저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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연준의 50bp 인하는 부채 부담과 약한 경제 때문이라 주장. 금·은 상승, 달러 약세 전망. 이날 금은 신고가 후 소폭 하락 마감했지만 조정은 일회성으로 보고 다음 랠리에서 2600달러 돌파 예상. 경기지표 악화와 인플레 재가속 가능성 언급. 인하 사이클이 더 이어질 것이라 봄.
다듬은 글
the dollar is going to go down Gold's going to go up um and and and so this was just an opportunity this this late day sell off there another opportunity a big rally in gold on the back of this 50 base Point rate cut and of course I do believe that the economic data get ready because Peter Schiff is here to Spill the truth Again The fed's Cutting rates not because they want to but because they have to thanks to a mountain of debt they can't afford it's like trying to put out a fire by throwing gas on it meanwhile gold soaring breaking records like it's on a Victory lap and the dollar sinking faster than my weekend plans Powell says they're data dependent but we all know where this is heading stick around Peter's about to break down the chaos so I mean all this stuff is going to blow up uh the deficit that's why uh pal is is is cutting rates it's because we can't afford the rates we've got even though they're too low they're still too high considering the enormity of the debt and and so that that's the reason but he had to kind to you know pretend that everything was great even though we're cutting interest rates by 50 basis points when the reality is it's not great and the fact that that we that he cut is proof of that now the markets initially rallied the stock market rallied gold as soon as the announcement came out that it was 50 basis points goal rallied and then rallied again it didn't take out 2600 it did make a new all-time record high we got above 2595 um and the gold stocks had a big rally initially so the GDX and the gdxj both hit new 52- we highs earlier but then when pal started to speak and some of the things that he was saying was inter interpreted as being you know hawkish uh like he talked about how strong the economy is but what do they expect he's not going to acknowledge uh that the economy is is weak when asked specifically about the balance of risks if they had tilted to employment over inflation pal said no he said that it's basically neutral that the FED is equally worried about inflation and employment so it's not that it's more worried about un employment but that was a lie of course it's more worried about unemployment that's why it's cutting because the idea that they're they're tight is nonsense they're still loose and so they're cutting because they need to be looser for a lot of reasons one of them is employment but I think when pal said that that kind of spooked the markets also pal said that hey don't expect you know just because we cut 50 basis points this time we may not cut 50 next time right and we may not cut it all next time we're still playing it meeting by meeting we're data dependent going back to that even though all the people who fill out these dot plots they're all projecting more Cuts uh that uh pal didn't just come out and say yeah we're cutting again uh we're cutting next meeting we're cutting the meeting after that he kind of uh you know claimed that well we're still data dependent so you never know if we get some bad inflation prints we we may not cut hey we may even hike right so he left the door open so I think that you know took away some of what uh he had given and that's one of the reasons you saw reversals in the markets uh including the fact that you know it's a buy the rumor sell the facts so you get Traders taking profit so the market sold off and went negative it wasn't a collapse but they lost the gains gold revers closed negative on the day maybe about 10 12 bucks I think at its highs gold was up maybe like $25 something like that so the gold stocks which were up 3 4% on their highs ended up down about a percent so a lot of profit taking as a result of the um of the press conference but I think that's just a one-day event I think what happened was extremely bullish uh for gold and I think the big move is going to be higher I think the next rally will take out 2600 same thing with the dollar dollar made a new low for the year on the Yen almost took out a 140 we did take out 84 cents on the Swiss frank we closed back above it but that was a new 13-year low today in the dollar against the Swiss frank so you know the dollar is slowly uh starting to break down the pace of that breakdown is going to pick up now that the cat is out of the bag we've had this 50 basis point uh rate rate cut and we've got more rate Cuts uh coming right so the dollar is going to go down Gold's going to go up um and and so this was just an opportunity this this late day selloff is another opportunity so if you didn't buy more gold before the FED cut 50 basis points you could still buy it tonight you can still buy silver silver you know is still above $30 but you know it's below 31 it had gotten above there but silver is a good buy right now hold on a big rally in gold on the back of this 50 base Point rate cut and of course I do believe that the economic data that is going to be coming out in the weeks and months ahead is going to be negative data it's going to be negative on the economy negative on manufacturing uh they're going to have some negative jobs numbers and these stronger inflation numbers may not show up for another few months right I mean they may come out around where they are and so as long as inflation isn't getting worse right the FED can ignore the data because the FED is already confident right they're saying we're we know that inflation is going to go back down to 2% although pal was careful not to say mission accomplished because he actually said that there was one of the reporters that that asked uh would you say you've won the inflation fight and pal said no you know which kind of contradicted what he said earlier about the confidence he had and that's why he cut by 50 basis points because he was so sure that inflation was going down to 2% but then he later said well we're not sure and so we're not going to say mission accomplished uh well then if you're not sure why'd you cut by 50 right so nobody really asked that but I think he was afraid to say mission accomplished because you know it's probably not accomplished uh so he came out with that and so that might have also been a negative for the market maybe the markets were waiting for him to say yeah mission accomplished although from my perspective he basically did that with the 50 uh 50 base Point rate cut but again remember when inflation um was below 2% and Rising pal never R raised interest rates to get ahead of inflation say look we can see it's going up so we're not going to wait for 2% we're just going to start hiking now before we get there no no pal actually said we're going to let it pass 2% right even though our Target is 2% we're not going to start hiking at 2% we're going to let it get above 2% before we stock start hiking because you know we want to average out inflation right we have this inflation averaging now so we're not going to rush right we're just gonna you know let inflation move above well they have the complete opposite attitude on the way down If the Fed was consistent the FED would say we're not going to start cutting rates until inflation is below 2% and in fact what pal should be saying is you know we were above 2% for a long time we were way above it we need to average that down we need to have inflation run below 2% and if the economy really was as strong as pal claims why not why not let inflation be below 2% we got this great economy we got this super strong labor market why not have 1% inflation I mean wouldn't that be a relief although that's still higher prices but no pal knows the economy is so weak he can't wait for inflation to actually get down to 2% or heaven forbid go below 2% he needs to start cutting now and he's just going to roll the dice and hope that inflation keeps coming down but why should it he's throwing fire gasoline on the fire why should the fire go out when he's now stoking it now another important point that that that he made because somebody asked him at the press conference about the balance sheet like hey what are you gonna do with the balance sheet now you're you know you're you're uh cutting rates what about the balance sheet because you know you're shrinking the balance sheet you're going along with QT isn't that you know counterproductive right because on the one hand you're easing with rate Cuts but on the other hand you're tightening by you know shrinking money supply or by you know uh uh shrinking your bance sheet and said you know it's not really a contradiction because he said we're just trying to get to normal right we want to have a more normal policy and so that means lower interest rates because they're abnormally High which again is a lie they're still too low it's like we we create a phony Benchmark we lower interest rates to zero and then we claim oh 5% is high well relative to zero but why is zero your benchmark and that's a wrap if you want more noons takes on the economy from Peter Schiff don't forget to like the video hit that subscribe button and join the conversation if you're ready for more gold rallies and fewer fed Shenanigans drop your thoughts in the comments below and stay tuned because the financial fireworks are just getting started thank you
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