저자: CryptosRus · 외국인
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비트코인 강세론 결론: 현재 거래소 입금량이 2년래 최저 수준이라 매도 압력이 약하고, RSI 추세선과 와이지 패턴을 돌파해 상승 흐름이 유효하다고 봄. 기술적 지표: 1.5만 달러 부근을 저점으로 반등 중이며, 피보나치 61.8% 되돌림 레벨인 2.8~2.9만 달러가 중요한 저항 구간으로 제시됨. 2.5만 달러 근접 시 추가 상승 가능성 언급. 목표가: 연말까지 4만 달러 도달 가능성을 언급("quite possibly"). 단기 2.5만 달러 근접 가능성도 언급. 파생상품 청산: 최근 약 4시간 동안 롱 청산 약 8,400만 달러 발생. 고배율(50~125배) 레버리지 과열을 경고하며 5~10배 수준 권고. 온체인 펀더멘털: 7월 한 달 네트워크 결제 규모 약 2조 달러, 11월 고점은 8조 달러로 언급. 탈중앙 네트워크의 성장 여지를 강조. 출연자 전망(Peter Schiff 관련): 쉬프는 과거에도 비트코인 폭락을 여러 차례 예측했으나 빗나갔다고 주장. 현재 반등을 '속임수 랠리(sucker's rally)'로 보고 차익 실현을 권한 쉬프의 발언을 소개하며, 역지표로 활용될 수 있다고 언급. 쉬프가 은행을 잃은 뒤 비트코인에 우호적으로 돌아설 것이라는 전망도 제시. 리스크: 과도한 레버리지로 인한 연쇄 청산 가능성. 거시경제 악화 시 하락 가능성은 진행자도 인정. 언급 종목: 비트코인(방향 상승, 강세 전망), 이더리움(쉬프가 차익 실현 권고 언급, 진행자 직접 전망 없음), 금(과거 수익률 비교 언급만 있음).
다듬은 글
here's the metric for Bitcoin the number of exchange deposits pretty much I don't know I don't know about all-time low but two-year low right now no one is depositing Bitcoin to to sell this would be a silly time to do so right so obviously we had some up and downs but right now things are really really low because no one wants to sell Bitcoin and why would you when Bitcoin has just broken out on uh on it's you know it's current price right like this this wedge also is broken out of the RSI trend line right so it's breaking out on many things right so why would you want to sell now it would doesn't make sense right and of course people are still wondering even though fear level is less we're we're still not at fear level there's still a lot of people sitting on the sidelines wondering if this is still a bull trap wondering if the economy is gonna get worse and drag things lower right but while some people are waiting sitting on the sidelines many are buying in and that is why we are bouncing off of our low of 17K and we're going higher and according to stock money lizard the real interesting point will be at this 61.8 Fibonacci level and that's right around 28 29 000 that's the level I've been telling you guys about right that will be the interesting kind of like level once we get back there we're not far off from 30 000 and can we move on from there and build up and possibly hit 40 000 by the end of the year quite possibly I'm looking forward to it also I was curious just overall Bitcoin I haven't checked the liquidations recently right you figure with Bitcoin rising up right we almost hit 25 000 today we could hit it in the near future you got to figure we have a lot of short squeezes right we have a lot of short liquidations and we do but unfortunately look at the Longs we have long liquidations too if you're looking at it like how could there be a long liquidation over here about 84 million that's within four hours while Bitcoin is going up right how's that possible it's possible because there's people that are using 50 or 100x leverage so even if Bitcoin goes down like a hundred dollars they get liquidated that's that's why you see it you we should see like no green while Bitcoin is going up right it should be all red meaning short liquidations but unfortunately there's still too many greedy Traders even on the long side there's been more greedy Traders and alongside than the short side so unfortunately we do see a lot of short liquidations but we're still seeing long liquidations that's not what we want to see right don't play with leverage and if you have to play with leverage because you think you're an expert Trader well don't don't throw a 125x leverage don't throw a 75 leverage right maybe downplay to five to ten X you'll still be fine right you don't need to go 125 x and and then get wrecked while Bitcoin is going up it doesn't make a lot of sense right so just want to show that um still too much leverage being thrown out there but also this is interesting for Bitcoin you know we always talk about well at least I talk about growing number of addresses you know growing number holders growing fundamentals all that right this is pretty new and this is part of growing fundamental uh the network settled two trillion dollars two trillion dollars of transactions just in July alone right now obviously that was not Peak Peak was 8 trillion back in November think about it we have a distributed net worth not controlled by any country or company or any single individual or entity that's settling and processing transactions into trillions right what other network out there does this there's no other network out there that isn't regulated by some entity or bank or a fed or or a country or or someone right but we have Bitcoin that's doing this already and this is only the beginning imagine when we really get Global adoption that trillion will turn into tens of trillions hundreds of trillions right per month it's gonna be absolutely enormous so I'll just just throwing that out there something that that we don't talk about a lot in terms of how much transactions or dollar amounts of um you know settlement but it's absolutely enormous so good good stuff the man that's calling the current rally the current upward movement of Bitcoin uh suckers rally well a lot of you guys know who Peter Schiff is if you're in Bitcoin you should know who Peter Schiff is um so he did another interview of course not pro Bitcoin I'm still waiting for him to turn bro Pro Bitcoin it will happen I believe now that he doesn't have a bank now that he doesn't have to worry about his clients who are in his bank because he has no Bank anymore right there's no reason why he has to be so negative but to quote the market is going to plunge I think people should take advantage of the sucker's rally they got right now and get out a lot of people still have profit and these tokens people bought Bitcoin four five six years ago they have big profits same doing the ethereum people should get out because otherwise the Market's gonna take these profits well the good thing they is that he recognized that people that bought Bitcoin four five six years ago and same thing ethereum had big profits yet people who bought gold four five six years ago have no profits so that's interesting um but a couple things number one is petership makes these kind of predictions all the time for example when Bitcoin fell down to below four four thousand in May or March of 2020 he also said get ready for another fifty percent drop claiming that Bitcoin was gonna fall into 1700 or below right and that was when Bitcoin went on one of the most terrific runs we have ever seen in history so obviously a lot of people utilize his tweets or his his uh calls as a reversal indicator a bottom indicator because there's been many many times Peter will warn people to get out and that's when actually Bitcoin in the market rallies hard and the reason why I think Bitcoin and the reason why I said I think Peter Schiff will eventually turn pro-bitcoin it's because he has no bank because his bank was taken away from a euro-pacific International Bank that he formed in Puerto Rico um it's been taken away he has to give everything back so he has no Bank anymore so why not why you know one of the reasons why you want to get in Bitcoin is so you don't have to worry about this confiscation where the government comes in and just takes your money in this case your bank right he should be very very pissed off and turn pro Bitcoin right so I I still don't get that but anyways just throw that out there Mr Peter Schiff uh still one of the biggest Bitcoin Bears out there let's just put it that way of f
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