저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 연준 긴축 장기화와 달러 강세 속에서도 비트코인은 버티고 있으며, 규제 환경은 호주(토큰 매핑 방식)와 미국 SEC(게리 겐슬러의 포괄적 규제)가 대비된다. 거시경제: JP모건은 9월 연준의 대폭 금리인상(75bp 가능성)을 예상하지만, 11~12월에는 인상폭이 축소되고 2023년에는 과도한 긴축으로 금리 인하가 나올 수 있다고 봤다. 노동시장과 소비 수요는 아직 견조하며, 일부 기업 실적도 양호하다. 달러: 달러인덱스(DXY)가 109 수준까지 상승 중이며, 이는 크립토 시장에 역풍이다. 유럽 사태 등 글로벌 거시 악재가 공급망·에너지 문제를 키우고 있다. 비트코인: 악재 속에서도 비트코인은 보합세를 유지하고 점진적으로 상승하고 있으며, 채택 확대와 매수세가 지지 요인이다. 호주 규제: 재무장관은 전 세계와 달리 토큰 매핑(토큰별 분류)을 통해 규제할 계획이며, 여러 비트코인 현물 ETF 출시를 준비 중이다. 거래소 규제도 상대적으로 덜 엄격하다. 미국 SEC: 겐슬러는 프로젝트별 근거 없이 크립토 섹터 전체를 증권으로 보는 포괄적 접근을 취하고 있다고 비판받았다. 암호화폐 대출 역시 규제 대상이라는 입장이며, 마크 큐반은 명확한 가이드라인 공개를 요구했다. 피터 쉬프: 비트코인에 계속 강한 약세 견해를 유지하며 대규모 하락을 경고하고 있다. 그는 금 쪽에서는 이중 천장 같은 약세 신호를 짚지 않는다는 비판을 받았다. 마크 큐반: 보이저 관련 홍보로 파산 책임 논란에 휩싸였으며, 쉬프는 큐반이 보이저가 사기임을 알고 있었다고 주장했다.
다듬은 글
i mean jp morgan also says there will be a big rate hike coming in september the minutes that came out a few weeks ago or maybe last week um that basically the the the board of governors and fed chair powell both basically said we're still not really seeing inflation go down we're still taking this very seriously right and most project there will be another big probably 75 basis point rate hike coming in september but the good news about this is jp morgan thinks that it is the last one for this year that november and december even though there will be meetings it won't be nearly as big and it'll start tapering out and in fact some people think that the fed has raised rates too much so that in 2023 we're actually going to see them start cutting rates once again because the economy will be slowed down to a crawl and then they need to do something to jolt it back up again we'll see if that's true right now what we do know is labor force is still strong um and uh you know unemployment is still low consumer demand is still strong some of these companies that have reported said we don't expect you know q3 q4 to be worse and uh and their earnings are actually quite good not everyone but some um so we'll see what the fed does in september so this is also something that that a lot of people are speculating on right now right like whether or not we're gonna still have a huge 75 basis point hike or maybe they they they're more dovish and go 50 basis points you know or something even better than that i don't i don't quite know i don't quite know at this point all right um so that that's that's most of the stuff i want to cover in terms of world news economic news macro stuff uh what about you know bitcoin and crypto well uh looking at this australia australia is very bullish very very bullish their treasurer said that you know what we're going to come out with regulations unlike anywhere else in the world and this is not a bad thing they're not saying it like we're going to just like block everything and take control like gary gunzler right they're actually going to do something called token mapping and they're going to map basically all the tokens and the categories and niches that they fit into right and then plan on how to differentiate them right we know australia is very pro very pro bitcoin crypto they are about to come out their bitcoin etf not just one spot like several spot bitcoin etfs um and they're overall you know uh they're not as strict with their exchange regulations and this is very encouraging that they will be actually taking a deep dive into each project and declaring you know what's what maybe declaring what's a security what's not security right what's utility and so forth unlike gary which is basically saying okay this project security without giving any reason and and basically blinking blanket um you know covering the whole sector uh saying that it's it's all securities right outside of bitcoin i mean that's not what we want what we want is this and this is very very good dxy continues to go up we're at 109.
this morning was like 108.1 or something and now it's at 10108.94 the dxy continues to go up so these are things that are counterintuitive to a good crypto market right now right dxy should fall and obviously with all the stuff the macro stuff that's happening with other countries it's not helping the global economy it's not helping supply chain issues it's not helping energy issues and all that stuff right so there's a lot of a lot of headwinds it seems like it's escalating right now in europe a lot more so than before but the good news is the good news is like i said despite all these things coming out today well bitcoin didn't go any lower bitcoin is still holding steady and that could be because due to one man and one man alone and that is peter schiff it could be because peter schiff is again being very bearish on bitcoin claiming that cnbc has been pumping bitcoin pretty hard all morning that must mean crypto insiders uh are calling some favors right get ready for the dump so it could be because of the peter schiff reversal whatever he claims that there's going to be a big dump coming uh we reverse upwards it could be because i'm just speculating i don't know that's the real reason but of course peter schiff is still very negative about bitcoin even though people like cz likes to point out well you claim cnbc likes to talk about bitcoin but you tweet more about bitcoin than gold according to cz and someone else pointed out a double top for gold something that peter will never call out peter likes to claim that he's a good chartist and he charts a lot of doomsday scenarios for bitcoin but never and he doomed a scenario for gold i wonder why all right so there's those things so obviously uh some of the big headwinds that we're facing today still is there it's it hasn't been resolved right and bitcoin has to fight through all of it bitcoin you know it's heading a lot it's it's being held down right now but all these macro conditions right but despite all that it is holding strong and it's inching forward and that's because we have so many good things going on with the fundamentals with adoption with buying yeah there's they're still buying so peter schiff is basically claiming that mark cuban knew voyager and basically all crypto was a scam and he only hopped on because he saw opportunity to profit right so right now and he's saying this because of course we know mark cuban is um is in some uh well yeah he's in some shark investor waters infested waters right um because of his ties with voyager he promoted help promote voyager uh with his arena with dallas mavericks and um you know obviously with their bankruptcy it's not a good look for him a lot of people were pointing fingers at mark cuban and peter schiff is kind of irking him on saying that he knew that voyager was a scam because at one point in time mark cuban did not like bitcoin did not like crypto and then he turned the corner in 2021 so peter schiff is claiming that he knew all along that that this was going to happen right so again i think peter schiff has to watch out mark cuban has more enough resources to go after him for defamation or something else or whatever else he could go after for so uh so peter schiff is still being very negative these days but i did see this mark cuban i was looking at his you know twitter to see if he responded he didn't respond to peter schiff but he did respond to none other than gary gensler right so gary gensler of course we know wants to control everything all crypto everything in crypto including all the exchanges and he's talking about the lending um if you actually look at this he's talking about lending too i'll get to that a little bit but he also wants to control nft market too he really wants to control every aspect and probably he wants to control d5 so literally everything in crypto he wants to control and read this there's no reason to treat the crypto market differently from the rest of capital markets just because it uses different technology read my recent op-ed which and then there's a screenshot here we can dispense with the idea that crypto lending isn't subject to regulation on the contrary the rules have been around for decades a platform aren't following them okay so mark cuban responded saying come in and talk to who right talk to you directly he's referring to you know gary saying coming to the sec and talk with them stop an appointment how do you use uh calendar these days uh since you understand crypto lending and finances why don't you just publish bright line guidelines you like to see and open up for comments right yeah so that's the thing it seems like gary always says okay yeah just come on in and talk to us but you don't know who to talk to and you don't really know what the guidelines are really right it'll be nice if they just had it on the webpage and say this these are the guidelines or or you know wherever post it somewhere right so i do think that even though gary's playing the nice guy saying yeah yeah you know just come on in we're nice people at the sec come on in right but that's not really the case the binance.us which offers all of zo
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