저자: DevinaMehra · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 주식은 수익이 몰려서 나오므로 장기 보유가 중요하며, 현재는 시장을 떠나기보다 투자 유지가 낫다는 입장. [라케시 점훈준왈라 전략] 수익은 1989·92년, 1993~2007년 등 일부 기간에 집중됐고 1994~99년·1995~2003년 같은 긴 횡보기도 있었다. 핵심은 하락·횡보기에 포지션을 함부로 바꾸지 않는 인내. [최고 수익일 놓침의 위험] 센섹스 40년간 최고 10일을 놓치면 수익이 크게 줄고, 30일을 놓치면 대부분 수익이 사라진다는 주장. 좋은 날은 시장이 나쁠 때 몰려 나오므로 떠나면 안 된다는 취지. [대체자산 비교] 금은 명목 기준 20년 수익이 0에 가까웠고 부동산도 수익이 약하다. 최근 금·은·부동산 강세에 쏠리는 것은 추격 매수 성격이라고 지적. [시장 전망] 대폭락 위험은 낮다고 봄. 주식 투자 위험은 있지만 투자하지 않는 위험(상승장 놓침)이 지금은 더 크다는 판단. 주식 비중은 유지 권고. [금리·거시] 미국은 은행위기 이후 금리 인상 중단 가능성, 한국은행도 추가 인상 없을 것으로 추정. 원유가격 하락은 인플레이션 완화, 경상수지 개선, GDP 성장 부스트, 기업 마진 확대에 긍정적이라고 설명. [섹터 전망] 산업재·자본재 섹터는 여전히 비중이 높고 스토리가 끝나지 않았다고 주장. 최근 자동차 부품·제약·자동차에 비중을 일부 늘림. 실적 시즌은 혼조 예상, 원유 영향은 다음 분기 실적에 더 뚜렷할 것. [출연자 전망] 주식 비중 유지, 상승 놓침 위험 강조, 원유 하락이 인도 경제 핵심 변수라는 관점.
다듬은 글
With us on Big Market Voice is First Global's Chairperson and HD Devina Mehra. We talk about the market, as we do every day. Today, we have a very interesting discussion. First, Devina wrote a very interesting blog two days ago: "Do you want to become Rakesh Jhunjhunwala?" Everyone wants to become Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, but not everyone became one.
Devina did a very interesting study on some of Junior Balaji's abilities, and how he became Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, and how, if you want, you too can become Rakesh Jhunjhunwala. But good morning, let's talk about this first today because I really liked that blog. So, according to you, the most important quality that Rakesh ji had, and what a normal investor needs if he wants to become a bible, yes, good morning Anuj.
That quality of Rakesh ji, and that book has just come out on him, I really liked one line in it. Yes, I wrote that blog, but before that, I want to tell all your viewers that in theory, we always understand that this The equity asset class gives returns, while other such classes give higher returns, but they are volatile returns.
We understand this in theory. But actually, when it happens that a year passes and you don't get any returns, or your portfolio loses money, then you feel that it should run away. If for two months the price of gold goes up, then you feel that it would have been better if you had kept the same instead of equity, or if the price of HDI goes up, then you feel that it would have been better if you had kept the same.
In the book on Rakesh ji, he had said one thing that the returns I got from equity have come in a long manner, it is not like that and the returns kept getting equal every year. He said that the returns I got were good once in 1989 and 92, then during the period from 1993 to 2007, when the entire market increased 350-4 times, that was the period.
In this way, there were two such periods. Apart from this, he wrote that there was also a period of 5 years when no returns were made, like the period from 94 to 99, if you remember. In the 9-year period from 1995 to 2003, the market leadership was zero. So, how thoughtfully can you act in such periods and do not tamper too much with your long-term position.
I would say that you should keep holding the same stock for many years because sometimes that thing changes completely. If we talk about some viewers, for example, once upon a time there was GK Group or Lal Group, but these groups used to dominate, those who had no child or very few children, or in the middle, PSC was very influential about 20 years ago and they left, so you can keep changing the stock, but whenever the market remains flat or goes down, you will not get returns.
I might have said this earlier on your channel also that you should look at the returns of 40 years, since the Sensex started, it became ₹100 to 44000, but if in those 40 years you missed the 10 best days. If you do this, then instead of ₹ 44,000, it becomes less than ₹15,000. Two-thirds of your return is lost.
If you miss 30 days, that means, on average, you miss the best day of the year, even less than that. If the truth is true, then 90% of your return is lost, that is not even ₹100. If it is ₹44, then you do not know that those days of relief will come. But mostly those days come when the market is not doing very well, when there is a very bullish environment, then there is not so much increase in each day.
But when the environment is different, that frustration is increasing, there is anxiety, I do not understand what to do or there is fear of leaving the market, those days come then. So, I thought that Rakesh ji's superpower was that he understood that equity returns are such that they come all at once and then you have to wait for many days.
So, if you can understand that thing and when that period is going on So don't run away, you said absolutely the right thing and right now the same period is going on because since October 2021 Nifty has not given you any returns and fixing is giving good returns, gold is giving good returns, silver is giving good returns, real estate has given excellent returns, then people's mood is a little bit away from equity, then although there was a good rally in the last 1 month, but right now what about your market, then I had to start from the beginning but now let's come to today's market, then because the contact is the same, then what should be done in this market, yes, you are right, I mean, the asset classes you talked about, real estate and gold, the returns are long in these too, real estate does not give good and returns, so that is why when there is a sudden return, people start running towards it, let me tell you about gold, for the entire 20 years from 1983 to 20 years there was zero return in nominal terms, in repeat terms, so some returns came due to rupee appreciation, so this is also a thing, so as soon as they When the asset class starts doing well, you start running towards it.
So as far as the Indian markets are concerned, I have already written about it on my Twitter that I feel that the risk of crushing is low right now. It does not seem that there is any big list that the market will crash suddenly. So right now, where we are sitting, we all understand that if you invest in the market, there is a risk, but there is also a risk of not investing in the market.
So according to me, right now it is more that if you have not invested in the market and if a big upward move comes, you will miss out. So that risk is high right now. We have to think about all this, but right now that danger is high, so invest your money in equity, but whatever your equity allocation is, it is better to stay in the market at this time.
Good morning, Virendra is speaking from Dead Studio. First two questions of Anuj, if you see, you have answered them. Now the second one, still we had a conversation, but when we talk to people about equity, people, viewers, ask us questions. First, real estate was doing well, gold was doing well. Debt was doing well but what happened this time was that in India, the first thing that started the rate pause was the RBI.
If you see, this time they took a pause, it is a sign and you think that this is a serious pause, this will happen worldwide now, meaning the rates have finally been paused. Now do you believe in this stance? I mean, if you normally sit in India and look at India or America, there are many countries like that, but if you look at these two countries, then the rates have been paused in America because, I mean, after the pause, if you have not even seen the previous one, if the Prime Minister said that due to the banking crisis that happened recently, there has been a credit titanic there, the financial condition has deteriorated, then only they can reduce to some extent the impact of increasing the rates, so that is a matter of that place, here the RBI has not said anything, but my guess is that they have not said yet that they will increase the rates after this, they will not say anything, we will see sometime and the reason behind it, which I understand and which I think This can be very important for the Indian economy and for thousands of people as well, that is the price of crude oil.
If the price of crude oil has come down compared to last year, you all know that if there is relief then it has a huge impact on the Indian economy and even the results of the companies. According to me, to some extent RBI is depending on it that if it will reduce inflation because crude does not mean just a reduction in the price of good oil, it happens directly there, there are many downstream products which come down in other industries, so if crude decreases then it has an impact on chemicals, textiles, FMCG, oil and cement paint, there are many such products, so if and plus the second thing, of course, in the current inflation rate in India, a big part of it is food items, but there is a much bigger reduction there, so if the next inflation rate goes down then it can come from here and this also makes a difference to other things, of course, our current account deficit reduces, GDP growth gets a boost and as I said, if you are using For many industrialists, if the input is low, then either your margin expands or if you pass on the price benefit to the consumer, then your demand gets boosted.
So, if there is one thing that can boost the Indian economy, it is the name of crude oil. Okay, if you see the strength of crude oil, if it settles down, then this will be the economics for the Indian market. Although you are not saying right now that this pose is a very serious pause or an ultimate one, there will be a U-turn from here.
I mean, the kind of earnings that have started this time, you have seen IT, you have seen banks, there have been some problems, how did you like the earnings season so far, madam, of Q4. And one more thing, if according to your opinion, the base is this fear and crude remained quite cheap, which was good for the Indian market, then which space will dominate this next phase, which will be a strong phase, I think according to you, you will see a little mixed results of use, if there is an impact of crude, it will be more visible in the results of the next quarter.
So as far as we are concerned, the sector which we also like and that has n't changed, it has been more than 1 1/2 years since October 20-21, that industrial capital goods is a very rich space, do you also think that its story is over, but the story is not over yet, we did some profit booking, we have also made some changes, some stocks which have run up a lot and it seems that now their price has increased a lot, due to that they have moved to other sectors, but that space still dominates in all our CMS, about 9 months ago we had banks, in which our wage is mostly very less, at least there it has become a little more than the price movement in the market, from there also this sector has been at least a little more than the market for a long time, in our portfolio, here in the last one or two quarters, that is, understand January, and in this balance, we balance, where we have increased a little, those sectors are those which our system likes and this is pharma, auto components and we have increased some wage in autos Today with us to talk about more markets And to discuss the beautiful blog that you have written, the blog is available on moneycontrol.com.
Those who want to read it, please listen to the discussion again and you will get the highlights. Before we go to Sachin, let's do one thing.
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