저자: RamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 인도 시장은 단기 하락 리스크가 제한적이며 중장기 성장 스토리는 유효하다는 낙관적 시각. 경상수지: 유가 하락과 서비스·상품 수출 호조로 경상적자가 GDP 대비 약 0.5% 수준으로 축소, 일부 분기 흑자 가능성도 언급. 다만 루피가 매년 3~4% 약세를 보이고 있어 수입물가 상승을 통한 인플레이션 재확대 우려가 있다고 지적. 수출·IT: IT 서비스 수출 둔화는 불가피하나 비즈니스 서비스 등 다른 서비스 수출이 급증해 전체 서비스 수출은 약 30% 성장(약 2,500억→3,500억 달러 규모)했다고 설명. 인도 주식시장 가치: 향후 6~7년간 시가총액 3.5조 달러 수준 확대 가능성을 언급하며, 기업 지배구조와 법체계 신뢰를 근거로 중국보다 주식시장 수익률이 나을 수 있다고 평가. 연 10~15% 수익률 기대. 밸류에이션·하방: 니프티가 16,800 부근에서 지지될 것으로 보며, 현재 PER 약 18~20배 수준에서 하방 10%, 상방 20~30%의 비대칭 구조라고 판단. 15~16배까지 조정 가능성은 열어둠. 실적: 이번에 실적 상향 조정이 시작될 수 있다는 리서치팀 의견을 소개. 명목 매출 성장률 15~17%, 원자재 가격 하락과 가격 전가로 마진 개선 기대. 중국 경기 둔화 및 유가·지정학 리스크가 변수. 출연자 전망: 인도 기업 실적과 소비 회복이 이어질 경우 시장 상승 여력이 있다고 봄. 자산별 개별 종목·지수 방향에 대한 구체적 언급은 제한적.
다듬은 글
Thank you, Viru, and today in the Market Guru series, we have a very special guest with us in our studio, Ramdev Agarwal, Chairman of Motilal Oswal Financial Services and known as the Warrant Buffett of India. He is very influenced by him and has a great focus on valuations. He has a very good grasp on market cycles.
Another thing about Ramdev ji is that Ramdev ji normally does not track the market. Many times he says the opposite. When we talk to him, he asks, " Okay, I don't know where Nifty is because I don't track it." Ramdev ji, first of all, thank you for taking out time for us. Especially, thank you for coming to our studio.
You were saying that you have a very interesting view on this. It is a very big track and it can be for the Indian market. Let me explain it. The current account deficit was very high in this year's school because that changed. Oil went up to 1995. A little export was also a little on it, so the current account, but gradually, gradually, as our services exports have picked up and Merchandise exports also did well and geared up on the strength of oil, so all that happened together and right now in Q4 Vodafone, I think it is of plus minus type, meaning like current account deficit is just about half percent and maybe flat, we also have one small surplus due to number C, but what is happening in this way is that your rupee which falls by 3-4% every year, if that is possible then it means it may stay here for a few years, okay because RBI is there, but what will happen is that your inflation will keep increasing, so with 4x, the deficit which had fallen from 650 to 550 has already become 585-90 and is increasing every week, so if in this year, if we have goods growing by 12% here, then dollar GTP will become of group D because you will not have loss in translation, so your purchasing power will remain stable, it will not increase but it will be stable, this can also make a difference on inflation because your three-four days ago, which was 18 years There is a decline, the cost of imports increases, everything is due to the dollar, you have computers, that is also important, the 4% price is not high in the mind because of the decline, so what will be the answer to this, inflation will come down, then the entire cycle, but Ramdev ji, one card of this is that the Indian market which has been such a strong support factor, not last year, but the maintenance of the IT space will end, but there will be some impact from it, and think of it differently brother, brother, consider your exports, which were 12% to 13% and the base from 200 billion 12% means 22-25, okay, it will come only 25 billion, it will become 25, 27, 18% more percent, so there will be a decrease of two-four, five billion dollars there, but you have these other services exports, business services, which the captains are opening, big 50,000 to 60,000, the momentum is very high there, so total services exports this year were very surprising, it is around 30%, that is 250 billion has become ₹350, now next year services export in total bill IT by 10% 15% I don't have that much idea but they have to watch today, forward it to you ok come because you talked about skip, one more question is added in this then there will be music if they feel that Rupee is not doing the definition because they have to fight that whatever they earn, 4% is taken out on it, so what and one more thing in yours, the exit of files of the last time will be more painful than what it has been, their entry will also be so you are feeling that you have been sent to the next station, your invitation has been sent, you have gone in, according to me, whenever there is a little surprise in earnings, some strength is seen, any external event whatever, if the price of oil falls, that crane war goes on, there is a fire, any diversion, if there is a little bit of earning, then a little bit of confidence has come to me in the market, I think they would like you to come back in India Because look, there is no such story in the Indian story, IMAG, there is none.
The story of China was very good, many people learned it, we are also learning it, but the stock market did not sleep there, so the economic growth and stock market growth, there are two different things, so no, this has not decreased in China, money will be made there, the economy in India was much slower than China, but still a lot of money has been made because here the corporate color, the justice system here, the legal system, I mean, I trust the corporate economy a lot, so I feel that this story of India is not such a big story, 3.5 to 7 trillion flat in six to seven years, such high pride means with 199% property, you will increase 3.5 trillion in 6 to 7 years, there are very few such places, so you will make 10%, 12%, 15%, that remains to be seen, but this type of predictable high visibility story is very less, so if it becomes stable, Ram ji, one thing I always liked about you was You always taught me something good.
Whenever you invest, you should look at the downside. After that, you have to protest because upsets are unlimited. So, in the Indian market right now, how much downside is there for you? We went up to 16,800. I know you track Nifty levels, but it went up to 16,817, and from there, in a good rally, it went up to 18,000.
Look, now the market will remain at 16,810,000. Because, I have seen it from the app, brother, IPS. The next question is also going up. Optimi is all 950 paise, all 925, so understand that it will fall around that level, 939, 35. So, you mean you are trading current or 23, 24, give 20 times, that means you are adding in 18, 19 times.
So, the meaning of the game in this is okay, 15, 16 can also come. Anything can happen, but you are trading very downside, very limited. It is very important, now the site potential is very high because if you had 15-70% this year, then next year again the same type of group is being formed, so your down side is 10%, up side is 20, 25, 30%, this type of one, this or three gate is visible, in fact, one of your research team's notes this time was that after many quarters, perhaps earnings upgrades will start, you have confidence because those upgrades have been a mirage, for us I mean they have not come, we always say that perhaps all will come but they have not come, this time looking at Kotak, except Accept IT, looking at the rest, it seems that perhaps everything is running great, perhaps it can, see, there is top line momentum in the economy, you see and in 223 there is 15, 16, 17% offline growth, problem is big and margin means there was cost inflation, all that, bill note able to pass, we corporates are now gradually increasing those prices also and Commodity prices also come down, so I feel that I mean, we talk to many companies, everyone says that sir, best today itself, this is going to be no coming in, one of you is things are stabilizing and actually I have friends in many places from here from India to America and the flights that we do for medicines etc.
and late date you should be 30% premium, no more 10-15% discount on the rate, so it is a lot of decline of this type, many things when verified, verified, the material items where actually the price is going up, the price is going up, so the answer from this I feel is that because there is so much growth, then your top line will come, consumption will come, weather corporate surprising power, not date depends on the commodity pricing.
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