저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
짐 로저스는 전 세계 중앙은행의 대규모 통화 발행과 차입으로 버블이 형성되고 있으며, 이 과잉 유동성은 결국 끝나고 많은 사람이 고통받을 것이라고 경고한다. 통화 발행 규모는 과거 어느 때보다 크고, 이 돈은 어딘가로 흘러들어 자산 버블을 만든다고 본다. 과거 긴축 사이클에서 중앙은행이 금리를 세 차례 인상하면 시장이 흔들렸다는 패턴을 언급하며, 이번에도 그럴 수 있다고 본다. 본인은 아직 매도하거나 공매도하지 않았지만 여러 나라와 자산군에서 버블 형성이 우려된다고 말한다. 미국은 역사상 최대 채무국이 되었고, 2차대전 후와 달리 저축이나 과잉 생산능력이 없으며 해외 100여 개국에 군대를 두는 등 과도하게 확장되어 있다. 1920년대 영국의 사례처럼 미국도 쇠퇴할 수 있다고 본다. 인플레이션은 이미 나타나고 있으며 대규모 통화 발행은 역사적으로 인플레이션을 낳았다고 보고, 본인도 은·금·원자재를 보유해 대비하고 있다고 밝힌다. 채권은 역사상 가장 비싼 버블 상태이고, 주식은 버블이 형성되기 시작했으며, 부동산도 한국·뉴질랜드 등에서 큰 버블로 본다. 원자재는 은이 고점 대비 약 60% 하락하는 등 아직 싸서 버블이 아니라고 평가한다. 전기차는 내연기관차보다 구리를 훨씬 많이 쓰므로 구리 등 원자재가 수혜를 볼 수 있다고 언급한다. 조언으로는 자신이 아는 것만 고수하고 모르면 빠지라고 하며, 중간에 잠시 놓치는 것이 크게 잃는 것보다 낫다고 강조한다. 마지막에는 블로우오프(폭등 마무리) 가능성과 그 이후 붕괴 가능성을 언급하며, 역사적으로 패권국의 과도한 확장이 큰 변화를 낳았다고 덧붙인다.
다듬은 글
never before in history has there been so much money printed by all the central banks at the same time we've had money printing before here and there and sometimes many places but never have you had so much money printed by so many central banks so much borrowing so much spending so this is unique in that period just the magnitude of it and whether we like it or not all of that money sloshing around has to go somewhere it doesn't matter those are the facts now i don't particularly like it because it's going to come to an end someday and i've been around long enough to know that when it comes to an end a lot of people are going to suffer maybe even me i mean i hope i don't but i do know that a lot of people are going to suffer and suffer badly and eventually well eventually they run out of trees they keep running money and printing money and printing money eventually something happens and it comes to an end and this will come to an end too all of the signs are starting to gather bubbles are starting to form new people are rushing into the market and telling their friends oh there's this new thing called the stock market and it's so much fun and it's so easy and you can make money and they all rush in and then spax stacks come around often at the end of long four months backs have been around for 300 years but they often rise again whenever there's a long bull market i mean this is not my first rodeo i've seen all this before but even if i hadn't you can look it up read about it it always happens and it's happening again but elliott it does always come to an end eventually well it various incendiary things just thought that war can cause uh people to get out of get out of markets central banks can realize the mistake they can change their mind and start stop printing money and start raising interest rates started cutting back there are some things that caused this to happen to happen in the past it used to be a signal that some people used was when the central bank raised interest rates three times one two three first time scared people but then around second time scared people rallied again the third time without you better get out now who knows who knows i don't know if that's going to be the case again this time uh but i'm certainly watching like everybody else i haven't sold out yet haven't sold short yet but i'm certainly worried that i see bubbles forming in many countries and many asset classes it's uh happening everywhere i mean not everywhere but nearly everywhere the chinese for amazing enough have been less crazy than the rest of us they've been a little more restrained but even they have certainly borrowed and printed and spent a lot of money nearly everybody's been doing it i'm sure we if i look for north korea hasn't been doing but most nearly most places have been have been getting involved to some degree or another we often uh you may go the other way we have the correction and then we have the central banks panic and they print even even even more money and then we have the wild blow off often we have blow-offs in market when they get out of hand come the time when just everything goes up every day it used to be called a blow-off i guess it still would be called a blow-off if we have one sure why not if the central banks panic which they might if things do go down for you know all they care about are their jobs they don't care about you and me they care about keeping their jobs so if they suddenly get worried they could print even more money and buy even more assets sure why not we've had blow-offs in history all over the world it has happened many times my present inclination is that i would expect to blow off before this ends if you want to survive you just stay with what you know because when things start going wrong if you don't know what you're doing you're really going to get whipsawed all sorts of different ways if you don't know what's happening and you don't know what you're doing get out i mean you don't have to stay in the markets all the time yeah you might miss something for a while so what i promise you it's better to miss something for a while and lose everything when things go really wrong so my advice is just stay with what you yourself know and if you don't know stay out if you want to jump in and out go to it maybe you can go on the internet or the tv or something it's not the way i do it but who knows i have to stay with the fundamentals of markets that i have seen over the years and read about over the years that these things do happen and at the end of long war markets we sometimes do have blowouts so we have a lot of new people coming in getting very excited and carried away and things do strange things i've been around long enough to know this can happen and try to judge it and try to get it right well there is no question that america is now the largest debtor nation in the history of the world that is not good it's we had big deaths at the end of world war ii but we also had gigantic savings which had been forced by the depression and by the war during the war there were all sorts of controls and restrictions that so america had big savings offsetting its big debt when we paid off the debt with the savings after the war because we had all this capacity we built a lot of factories during the war so america had capacity savings to offset the debt we don't have any savings now we don't have any excess capacity of much excess capacity now no no this is a very different situation from the late 1940s we are the we are over extended militarily all over the world we have troops in over a hundred countries we certainly didn't have troops in over a hundred countries in the 1940s but we are doing things which may cause us to have problems down the road they certainly have in history caused other countries to have problems and if that's the case the end of the american empire may be a bit of a stretch but it certainly could be the top in the 1920s the uk was the richest most powerful country in the world there was no number two 50 years later they were bankrupt imf had to fly to london airport and bail them out literally bail out what had been the richest most powerful country in the world only 50 years before so it has happened throughout history it can happen will happen when it happens to us i don't know but i do know what's going to happen to us because i can look out the window and see the debt look at all that debt you know and it's not getting better it's getting worse america is certainly making a top i don't particularly like saying it but i have to deal with facts but dr mccentury mississippi river is going to dry off and go away i don't think the rocky mountains are going to collapse america is still going to be there but it will certainly be different just as the uk was different i certainly can see inflation is here i can certainly see gigantic money planning which has always led to inflation throughout history so yes i certainly expect inflation i'm prepared for inflation i mean i own some silver i own some gold i own commodities you know i've certainly been investing and commodity but money is the only asset class that are not expensive now bonds are a bubble bonds have never been this expensive in history stocks are beginning to form some bubbles property oh my gosh go to korea go to new zealand go many places profit is a huge bubble in many parts of the world commodities the only thing that are not i mean silver's down 60 percent from its all-time high sugar's down 60 percent many commodities are still down a lot so that's the only place i know of where there's not a bubble in where things are still cheap and historically money printing has led to inflation and if you own the things that go up in price you might even make a lot of money you know if we're going to have electric cars electric cars use a lot more copper than than petrol then gasoline cars so there are ways to make money i hope if one is attentive and stays stays prepared i mean history usually doesn't repeat itself it does rhyme of course whether it's like the 70s or not i don't know it doesn't really matter if commodity prices go up they went up in the 70s but they've been up many times in the district you go back to history you'll see we've had long periods when commodities go up for a while then they go down for a long period of time maybe we're in one of those periods again you own them and they go up you don't care what it's like all you care is oh my gosh they're going up and i own them and i'm making money i don't know if it's like we certainly had a lot of money printing them had a lot of excess spending then but we've never had spending like we have now i don't think we've ever had money printing like we're having now those guys in washington you know they keep getting us into wars afghanistan failed iraq failed you know vietnam failed we keep getting into wars we kill a lot of people and we lose a lot of money and yet those what guys in washington don't seem to learn their lessons you know history is pretty clear that whenever countries have gotten over extended militarily and financially and politically it often leads to big big changes not necessarily for the good maybe for the other side it leads to good changes the germans had a wonderful time when rome got over extended it went into decline and started collapsing the germans had a great time the romans didn't
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