저자: PioTech · 외국인
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i i don't i'm not trying to scare people or something but we've always had bear markets throughout history and we will have them again and we're getting very close i i see a lot of pessimism in the world right now that could lead to a rally if some good news comes but we're going to have a bear market again and it's coming soon and it's going to be very very bad jim i mean honestly there seems to be just one trade which is working out and that's long dollar so do you sense that in this bear scenario um that that trade would continue to hold and we will continue to see dollar appreciate as opposed to any other asset class well i've explained to you before that i own a lot of dollars not because it's a sound currency but because when there's turmoil people look for a safe haven many people think the us dollar's a safe haven it's not but people think it is that's why i own it and as the turmoil comes more and more people will rush to the dollar to be safe the dollar will get overpriced the dollar could turn into a bubble i hope i'm smart enough to get out jim you know the other thing we were discussing is that everything in the world is falling down except for crude that continues at 120 122 dollars and for india at least or for that matter for the rest of the world that doesn't many countries when the price of energy goes through the roof as you well know uh unfortunately known reserves of of energy are in decline worldwide and many countries have closed down coal mines closed down nuclear power and so we have to have a bull market in in in crude because people don't have any choice i would expect this bull market and crew to last longer than most of us expect eventually of course more supplies will come on stream eventually people will open nuclear power plants again eventually people will open coal mines again but in the meantime we don't have any oil okay jim but again i want to just extend isha's point which is that if we are in for a slow down then demand also has to come down with the exception of oil and coal all major commodities have corrected well yes look out the window stocks assets are collapsing everywhere i'm not the only one who knows it i watch et everybody who watches et knows that problems are going on in the world and so people are beginning to cut back and some are cutting back dramatically there is but to repeat as a possible optimist there is a lot of pessimism and that often leads to a big rally if some good news comes i don't know maybe it'll be peace in ukraine who knows then we'll have a big rally but that'll be the last rally fed suddenly does 75 bips if they do we don't know but later this week if we hear that fed is going to move by 75 bips will that scare the market or will that make the markets happy that they've bitten the bullet well that might be the what the market would perceive as good news because the market would then say ah the worst is over now they raised interest rates by 75 basis points so we can have a big rally the market would see that as good news because they would say the worst is over the worst won't be over but the market might perceive that for a while but there's so much pessimism right now all right too much of pessimism message from jim rogers is that if there is good news a spark it could spark a wave of short covering jim i'm going to go back to that opening comment of yours that we are in a bear market and we are in a bear market after a 10-12 year long bull market so if we are in a bear market and since bull market and bear market they coexist are we in for a very long protracted period of bear market we may see smart rallies jim that's okay but otherwise you think this is going to be a five seven year long bear market this is going to be the worst bear market in my lifetime we had a bear market in 2008 because of too much debt and you know the debt everywhere has skyrocketed since 2008 gigantic in japan or europe or america everywhere even india debt has gone up so no this has to be the worst bear market in my lifetime which means it will go down a lot and it will last a long time do i like it no no of course not but i have to deal with reality and there is staggering amounts of debt in the world now good morning jim rogers so if we are in the grip of a bear market can i ask you straight up what would your advice be to investors we are seeing uh you know cash holding worldwide surpass what it was during the great financial crisis back home in india in the last two years we've seen penetration of our equity markets and many many new first-time investors as well that always happens at the end of a bull market all over the world it's not just india you see lots of new people come in they get excited about how easy it is to make money they think it will last forever this is not my first rodeo i've seen this movie before this is what happens and yes you're exactly right a lot of new people are coming in the only advice like the only way that will save you is only invest in what you yourself know a lot about don't listen to the tv maybe you can listen to e.t but for the most part do not listen to other people stay with what you know what you know and then you might survive listening to hot tips will ruin you jim rogers i was reading an interview of yours i think about a fortnight ago and i wanted to ask you this question and now i can so i'm going to um about two three weeks ago you said you wish you had bought the bitcoin 10 years ago but since 2017 all your interviews what i've been reading you talk about is it's all bubbles it's all about a gamble and you wouldn't go near it has jim rogers changed his mind when it comes to cryptos and bitcoin no not at all what i said was i wish i had bought it when it was one dollar don't you doesn't everybody i mean it went to sixty thousand dollars of course i wish i had bought it when it was a dollar or five dollars etc that does not mean i've changed my mind about what's going to happen with kryptos no cryptos i i don't own any i am not going to buy any as they come down but i certainly wish i bought it at five dollars i'd have a lot of money now but that does not mean i've changed my mind and think it's going to change the world jim you told nikonj that whenever you come to india next you're gonna gift him a silver coin i hope you know that you're gonna carry two more for nantara and me well i'll go down to the local market and buy all of you some buy each one of your bitcoin if we can find if if they still exist when i get to india we're happy to accept silver no bitcoins please not bitcoin silver coins okay when we go to the market we will find something that will satisfy you india is very big on silver as you know i own plenty of silver maybe we'll buy silver who knows what we will buy but is that the safe haven when it comes to commodities jim right now i mean yeah crude of course but that we've already talked about is silver the bet when it comes to commodities and precious metals i do not use the term safe whenever i talk about investments there's no such thing as safe i i assure you i've been doing this a long time i wish i could find something safe silver's probably less dangerous than other things gold is probably less dangerous i do i'm not buying them now because in a big collapse everything goes down but i probably will buy more silver when it goes down some more what is safe i i don't know anything that's safe agriculture is probably less dangerous silver agriculture silver and agriculture are probably the least dangerous things in the next two or three years jim so in your assessment what kind of scenario is
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