Warren Buffett & Charlie Munger Advice On Buying Stocks On The Stock Market

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결론: 버핏과 멍거는 시장 방향이나 경기 흐름을 예측해 매매 결정을 내리지 않으며, 장기적으로 미국 기업을 보유하는 것이 핵심이라고 말한다. 시장 예측 불가: 두 사람은 월요일 시장이 어떻게 움직일지 전혀 모른다고 말하며, 지금까지 시장이나 경기 전망에 근거해 사고판 적이 없다고 설명한다. 2008년 매수 사례: 버핏은 모두가 주식을 외면하던 2008년에 순자산의 큰 비중인 약 150~160억 달러를 투자했다고 밝히지만, 타이밍을 노린 것이 아니며 돌이켜보면 '매우 어리석은 시기'였다고 말한다. 6개월을 기다렸다면 더 나았을 것이라고 회고한다. 타이밍 부재 고백: 2000년, 2020년 등 시장 타이밍에 실패한 경험을 언급하며 자신들은 타이밍에 능하지 않다고 인정한다. 기업 가격이 충분히 싸다고 판단할 때 사는 것이 전부라고 말한다. 어린 시절 매수: 11세 때 1942년 다우지수가 90대일 때 주식을 샀던 경험을 언급하며, 미국 기업을 소유하는 것이 좋은 결정이라는 단순한 원칙을 강조한다. 분산 투자 비판: 하버드 기금이나 연기금이 채권과 주식을 나누고 매 분기 매니저 의견을 듣는 방식보다, 다트를 던져 미국 기업을 고르고 50~100년 보유하는 것이 더 나았을 것이라고 비판한다. 원숭이가 다트를 던져도 관리 수수료를 떼고 나면 이들보다 낫다는 식으로 말한다. 월스트리트 비판: 투자 자문 산업은 고객의 돈을 늘리기보다 수수료 구조에 치우쳐 있다고 지적하며, 돈을 벌고 싶은 자녀에게는 월가를 추천한다는 역설적 조언을 한다. 금융권 보상 일화: 1991년 솔로몬 브라더스 청문회에서 연준 뉴욕 총재가 직원 보상 문제로 추궁당한 일화를 소개한다. 리스크: 특정 자산 가격 예측이나 구체적 종목 추천은 없으며, 장기 보유 철학에 대한 일반론이다. 출연자 전망: 특정 자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없음.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. my question is how do you time the big market moves so well uh we'd like to offer you a job first i will take it the uh the interesting thing is uh you know obviously we have the faintest idea what the stock market is going to do when it opens on monday we never have had we have never made charlie and i i don't think in all the time we work together and i'll tell you something later on maybe about how learning takes place but we have we have never uh i don't think we've ever made a decision that where either one of us has either said or been thinking we should buy or sell based on what the market is going to do no or or for that matter on on what the economy is going to do we don't know and the interesting thing is uh some sometimes i get some credit someplace for the fact that you know how wonderful it was that we were optimistic in 2008 and when everybody was down on stocks and all that sort of thing you know we we we spent a big percentage of our net worth in a very dumb time and i i shouldn't say we it's i we spent about 15 or 16 billion dollars which was a lot bigger to us then than it is now we spent in the last few weeks there were a period of three or four weeks between wrigley and goldman sachs and general at a terrible time as it turned out i mean i didn't think i didn't know it was going to be a good time or a bad time but it was a really dumb time and i wrote an article for the new york times and by american and all these things well if i'd had any sense of timing and waited six months until i think the law was in march and in fact um i think i was on cnbc maybe that day or something but but uh i totally missed that opportunity i totally missed you know in march of of 2000 2020 uh we we have not been good at timing we've we've been reasonably good at figuring out when we were getting enough for our money and we didn't had no idea when we bought anything well we always hoped it would go down for a while so we could buy more and we hoped even after we were done buying and ran out of money that if it was cheap the company would keep buying in effect taking our interest up i mean that stuff you could you could learn it in fourth grade but but it's not what's taught in school and i mean so never give us any credit well actually give us all the credit i mean go out and tell everybody how smart we are but we aren't they we we haven't ever timed anything we've never figured out insights into the economy i mean when i was when i was about 11 years old march march 12th i guess 1942 yeah at march 11th you know but i bought stock when the dow was 90 was 101 in the morning it was 99 at the end of the day i think and uh you know now it's 34 000 or maybe it's a thousand less than it was on thursday it but i just you know it's one decision that it's a good thing to own american business and and you know if the harvard endowment had come to see me and it's 11 year old and you know or general motors pension fund or something and they say well no but we have to have a balance and we have to maybe have sixty percent and then we have to sit around every three months and listen to a bunch of managers was just done better if they'd just taken some darts and thrown them and and just said we're going to be in america 50 years from now 100 years from now and we'll do better than sex than we will in bonds it's it's it's amazing how hard people make what a simple game is it is but of course if if they told everybody what a simple game it was the 90 of the income or more of of the people that were speaking uh would disappear so it's really a little too much of us to expect of human nature that people will explain why they really aren't adding any value to what you can do by yourself or actually you're you know i hate to use the example but you can't have monkeys throwing throwing darts at them at the page and you know take away the management fees and everything i'll i'll um i'll i'll bet on the monkeys but not i don't consider them a superior species and i don't want them to move next door instead of my next door neighbor or anything but that is the way it's just the way it has to be charles do you have anything cheerful to say well frequently and well the welter advisory business the way it used to be you you go to your investment advisor and say what should i do to protect myself for the future and he says why don't you give me 50 000 in your net worth now that's my contribution to your future it's a peculiar business yeah it's a great place to go rich it's still if you have if you're if you have a uh son or daughter that that really wants to make money per point of iq and per erg of energy and all of that tell them to go to go to wall street i mean don't have manner to the priesthood or anything i mean if that's what they it self selects and it always will be the case i mean there's no reason to spare about humanity because they behave in their self-interest they may not actually be behaving in their self-interest over time but they uh you know are they happier who the hell knows but but if they just want to make money but uh well people here in the auditorium saw saw a little session from the solomon uh solomon uh episode and jerry corrigan was then the head of the new york fed and that same committee was grilling him and they said mr cor they were they were giving him a hard time and they said uh uh who was the highest they said something disaffected who's the highest paid or uh guy at solomon last year and then and uh i said well he uh yeah and he named him he said maybe he named him and he said he got i forget why there's 20 million last year and we're talking 1991 now too he said they got 20 million and the guy says well how old is he