저자: LarryFink외SaudiAramco측인사 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 공급 충격 중심의 인플레이션 속에서 단기 조정은 이어질 수 있으나 장기 투자자에게는 매수 기회라는 입장. 인플레이션과 연준: 인플레이션은 이민 정책, 공급망 취약, 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁 등 구조적·공급 측 요인이 주도. 중앙은행의 금리 인상은 수요 억제 도구라 공급 충격을 잡기 어렵고, 시장이 반영하는 만큼 높은 금리까지는 가지 않을 것으로 봄. 중국은 이미 경기침체 상태로 언급. 증시 전망: S&P500은 30년 평균 PE 수준까지 리셋됨. 지수는 에너지주 포함으로 손실이 가려졌지만 기술주는 50~70% 하락. 기업 실적은 마진 훼손 여부에 달려 있으며, 공급 충격이 12개월 이상 지속되면 실적 쇼크가 이어져 추가 하락 가능성 있음. 투자 전략: 장기 투자자에게는 저평가 종목 매수 기회, 단기 트레이더는 바닥 확인까지 대기 권장. 바닥을 맞출 수 없으므로 강한 미래가 있는 기업을 점진적으로 추가 매수하라고 조언. 에너지 전환: 탈탄소는 공정하고 정의롭게 진행되어야 하며, 에너지 기업 투자와 신기술을 병행해 신흥국의 에너지 접근성을 확보해야 한다는 입장. Aramco(사우디): 2050 넷제로 목표를 설정하고 석유·가스는 수십 년간 에너지 믹스에 필요한 것으로 봄. 화석연료에서 재생에너지로 급격히 전환은 불가능하며 점진적 과정이라고 주장. 저탄소 원유 생산과 탄소 포집, 수소 등으로 대응 중이라고 설명.
다듬은 글
larry, I think in the last three minutes...
Larry Fink 인터뷰 영상의 자동자막 원문에는 이 인터뷰 전체 내용이 들어 있지만, 현재 제공된 원문은 영어 자막이며 화자 구분 표기와 일부 문장 경계가 불분명합니다. 영어 자막은 영어로 다듬는 것이 기본 방침이라 아래에 영어 본문을 정리해 드립니다.
larry, I think in the last three minutes, and I have one more question for his excellency at the very end. I'd be really remiss not asking you about surviving the turbulence we see today. We've had almost a 20% correction, and inflation is at the highest level in 30 years. It's not clear whether the Fed can manage this—the U.S. central bank must bring down inflation without killing off growth. How much longer do we live with the turbulence, and are we almost through the worst of it? Does inflation come down naturally post-pandemic or not?
Well, there are many seeds of inflation. The seeds of inflation in the United States are really structural issues related to immigration policy, where the trend in illegal immigration has changed quite dramatically in the last five years. So we have many labor shortages and rising wages. Our economic policy has moved away from consumerism toward job creation. Many of these were structural seeds that had been years in the making, and the pandemic has really shown the weaknesses of these efficient supply chains. Then we have supply shocks in food, commodities, and energy because of the Russia–Ukraine war, and all of that is leading to some serious supply issues.
If you study some of the earnings misses that came out this week from major U.S. companies, much of their problem has to do with supply shocks. It's still more of a supply-driven inflation issue. Demand is still a little lower than it was pre-pandemic. So the Federal Reserve and other central banks are all going to try to arrest this inflation and bring it down, and I do believe it's going to take time, as companies build up redundant supply chains, which I've written about. This is very hard for any central bank, because they have tools to arrest demand-driven inflation—that's what they do—but supply-driven inflation is much harder to arrest. So the balance is: how much can they raise interest rates? That reduces demand and puts economies into recession. I don't think we'll have to go as high as some of the future interest-rate curves suggest. China is already in a recession, judging by the most recent information. You do have many issues around the world.
So the S&P has been reset. We were trading at a premium above the 30-year average in terms of P/E ratios; we are now at the 30-year average of price-earnings ratios for equities. The indexes don't really show the damage as you suggested, because energy companies are part of the index and they're up on the year, while many tech companies are down 50, 60, 70%. So we've reset many, many stocks. The big issue will be earnings. Many of the companies that reported in the last two days said their margins had been really compromised by supply shocks, and they were not passing on the same price increases despite how high inflation is. That's the big issue. If one believes we can mitigate these supply shocks over the next year, then I would say earnings can resume being strong. But if supply shocks continue over the next 12 months, we're probably going to have more earnings misses, which suggests markets have some more ways to go down.
But as a long-term investor, these are great opportunities to buy. There are many cheap stocks now. If you're a day trader, you may want to wait, but no one could pick bottoms, and no one can pick tops. The reality is the market has reset itself. For companies you really believe have a bright, strong future, you may see those stocks go down a little more, but I would suggest this is the time to start adding to your portfolio. We should always assume it's not going to be a straight line, and we should always assume we'll have new risks. We may never have anticipated the risks we face now, related to a war and a humanitarian disaster, but we are adapting and trying to move forward.
Most importantly, we all need to work together, country by country, to create a proper decarbonization pathway, while making sure any transition is fair and just. That means working with energy companies and investing in energy companies that may have a short period of return on capital. The bigger question will be whether that is enough, and whether we ultimately need to invest in deep water—a big question there, and many NGOs would disagree with anything I'm going to say now. We have to make sure we have adequate energy, keeping the world moving, helping emerging markets, and at the same time developing new technologies so we can leapfrog some of the hydrocarbon issues. For instance, we want the emerging world to have its adequacy and power in a fair and just way.
Yeah, that's a good way of putting it. Even during the pandemic, we were very slow to respond to the challenges of those in the developing world, especially Africa.
Ramayan, we forgot to say that as chairman of Saudi Aramco, what are you doing with ESG within that organization? I thought it was fascinating that they set an earlier net-zero target, 2050. Share what the conversation is inside the company, because it has a bigger role outside of energy within the kingdom as well. How can they be a persuasive agent for change?
When it comes to ESG, the net-zero policy we have at Aramco is part of what we have in Saudi Arabia. We announced that we will be zero-emission by 2050, and the country as a whole will be net-zero by 2060. So it's an integrated part of what's happening in the government, and Aramco, of course, has taken the leadership, with both strategic and operational approaches to address ESG. The oil and gas industry has a role to play, and we have to navigate a more sustainable future, where oil and gas are part of the energy mix—and that will be for many decades to come. Hydrocarbon products are the building blocks of the energy transition. The problem we've faced over the past few years is that people wanted to switch directly from fossil fuels to renewable energy, on and off. We just can't do that. As Larry said, and as many events including today have shown, you cannot just flip the switch from fossil fuel to renewable energy. It's a process we need to act on to achieve net-zero ambitions.
It isn't just a climate imperative; it's a business imperative. Aramco is in a strong position, with the lowest upstream carbon intensity among major producers. We are exploring low-carbon energy solutions, carbon hydrogen, cleaner fuels, energy efficiency through technology, and our massive economies of scale, and we're working on further reducing our gas flaring. We did that about a decade ago, ahead of the industry.
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