저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
짐 로저스는 중국이 향후 세계 1위 경제가 될 가능성이 있다고 보지만 어떤 나라와 통화도 영원히 정상을 유지하지 못했다고 강조한다. 미국은 수십 년간 1위였으나 과도한 부채와 군사·경제적 과잉 확장으로 장기적으로 정상 자리를 내줄 수 있다고 전망한다. 중국은 과거 저축으로 2008년 위기를 buffer했지만 현재는 부채가 크게 늘어 향후 위기 대응 여력이 제한적이라고 본다. 러시아·우크라이나 전쟁은 두 나라의 농산물·광물·에너지 공급 차질로 이미 존재하던 인플레이션을 악화시킬 것으로 본다. 러시아에 대한 투자는 현재 사실상 불가능하며 몰수되거나 시장이 폐쇄된 상태라고 설명한다. 과거 전쟁 중 매수가 유효했던 경험은 언급했다. 중국 투자는 보유 중이며 매도하지 않았고, 인도는 매우 매력적이지만 현재 투자는 없고 관찰 중이라고 밝힌다. 블록체인은 21세기 가장 중요한 변화 중 하나가 될 것이며 많은 은행 백오피스가 사라질 것이라고 주장한다. 다음 약세장은 본인 생애 최악이 될 것이며 전 세계 부채 수준이 역대 최고라 장기적 경제 문제가 불가피하다고 본다. 투자 전략으로는 확신 있는 종목이 없으면 현금을 보유하고 기다리는 것이 낫다고 조언한다. 삼성전자, SK하이닉스 등 한국 종목·금·비트코인 등에 대한 직접적인 1~3개월 방향 예측은 없었다.
다듬은 글
well microsoft has been around a few decades and it has a track record which one can fall back on i'm not saying that microsoft's going to do very well in the next two or three decades but many companies that once are established and they have confident management and confident products they do last for a long time but nothing lasts forever you know the dow jones industrial average is now about 125 years old none of the companies in the original dow jones industrial average are still in the dow jones industrial average you know it's changed the world is always changing so yeah you can look at the dow jones and say oh these are major major companies and they are but they always have been and they don't survive yeah and and what do you make out of this ukraine russia award jim what's your view on that i'm not i'm not saying what what date will it finish you know the start of the war i mean i know you you you have very good macro view also geopolitical views uh is is it something to do with the u.s this war well the u.s is the number one country economy in the world uh and it has been for a few decades but no country that has been number one has stayed number one forever it always changed most world currencies for instance which have been at the top have only lasted 125 years or so so just time wise the us is certainly not at the beginning of its run and since the us is now and we're getting overextended in many ways economically debt was militarily i can certainly foresee the day when the u.s is not on top again i don't know who is going to replace the u.s certainly not which currency china looks as though it's going to be the next number one country in the world but who knows but i do know that no country and no currency has stayed on top very long more than a hundred hundred years or so okay now are you still equally as bullish on china as you were jim about uh five years ago i mean they have a lot of debt and they've covered their problems now you know that's a major change from uh the last time we had a problem 2008 china had a lot of money saved for a rainy day it started raining they started spending their savings and helped bail out the world but now china has a lot of debt too so i don't know who's going to bail us out next time north korea i doubt it but china is certainly less bad shape than most countries but remember the united states became the most successful country in the 20th century but along the way we had several depressions many bankruptcies wars many many many problems we did come out on top and stayed on top for a long time but even we had a lot of problems as we were rising to the top china has problems and they will have more problems but that does not mean they won't rise to the top eventually and and and uh what's so so are you still you're still holding on to your investments in china or you're buying more i have investments in china i have not sold any i'm always looking for investments anywhere if you if i come across something whatever it is i will do my research and i hope if it's good i'll buy some okay and what is your gym view on you know you've had some last time you talked you've had some investments in russia as well isn't it i did have investments in russia i mean you know nobody has investments in russia right now they've only either been uh confiscated or if you know markets are closed the currencies collapse you can't do anything in russia now normally at a time like this i would be buying russia because i have learned that if you buy a country when it's in war and things are very desperate and collapsed it's normally a good thing if you have a staying power if you can wait a few years but right now as far as i know it's not possible to buy things in russia certainly not for americans maybe somebody maybe if you're a uzbekistani or something you could buy in russia but for most people it's not practical yeah yeah yeah i think maybe uh so so do you see any changes post-war i mean when when ukraine or russia gets settled down do you see any changes happening across the world in terms of economics or uh you know we're certainly this is accelerating or intensifying the inflation moves we already had inflation before the war and this just makes it worse because russia and ukraine supply a lot of agricultural and minerals to the world and energy to the world so this is just going to make the inflation which we already had because of too much money printing and too much borrowing and spending just going to make it worse yeah and and and and you think of uh india and these times or you don't i think of india i always think of india it is a wonderful wonderful country you can only visit one country i've said many times if you can only visit one country in your life it should be india because it's an astonishing country i didn't say if you could only invest in one country it should be india you know they have a massive bureaucracy and building up a lot of debt but no i'm very keen on india i don't have investments there at the moment but i'm always watching and are you watching the blockchain space and you know crypto space also do you have you of course blockchain is going to be one of the if not the most important changes in the 21st century it's going to put a lot of people out of business i mean electricity put a lot of people out of business too and it changed the world blockchain is going to be extremely significant uh many banks back offices will certainly disappear because blockchain is a major major revolution and it's going to change everything we know what i think i've asked most of my questions jim i think it's pretty 20 minutes but i've asked most of my questions one thing our last thing is again you know uh is it the time for people to keep the cash what what should they do with the excess cash they keep it they wait for it what do they do if you know a lot about something that's what you should do if you know a lot about sugar you might want to invest in sugar if you know a lot about apple and you think it's the right price maybe you should invest in apple you point out that some stocks are down fairly a fair amount here in the last few months if you know something i mean most american stocks are still not down a lot hasn't been a real bear market yet but if you know a company that's going to come out and the price is right you should be investing in it otherwise put your money in cash and wait i mean it's better to earn one percent uh for a while and to lose 10 or 20 for a while so just if you don't have something that you know is the right thing to invest in right now put your money in cash and wait how long do you think it could last in this route our next bear market is going to be the worst in my lifetime i told you we had a problem in 2008 and nine because of debt the dead since then has skyrocketed everywhere the japanese oh my gosh the english everybody has built up huge amount america has built up huge amounts of debt so it's got to be a very bad and long economic problem we've never had such debt in the world as we have now
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