저자: MohnishPabrai · 외국인
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Mohnish Pabrai가 마이크론 보유를 전량 매도한 배경을 설명. 당초 삼성·SK하이닉스·마이크론의 합리적 과점 구조를 근거로 매수했으나, 2022년 말 삼성의 점유율 확대 시도로 과점 논리가 깨졌고, 마이크론이 저원가 생산자가 되긴 했으나 미·중 기술 패권 갈등과 중국의 제품 금지로 리스크가 커져 2023년 2분기 전량 매도. 같은 시기 Lee Lou(Himalaya)도 매도. 매도 후 주가는 약 32% 상승했으나 논리 훼손을 이유로 매도 결정을 정당화.
다듬은 글
from my point of view that shattered the thesis because you're in uncharted waters now I couldn't see this thing working out in a good way in today's episode we're going to find out why legendary value investor Mish pay has sold completely out of Micron Technology stock he lays out his thesis for why he bought it in the first place how that's changed and why he sold hi I'm JJ with the out of value let's get straight into it the Micron thesis was built around the fact that it was a rational oligopoly so there are three players Samsung HX and Micron Samsung and HX and in Korea I met with Samsung and HX multiple times in in Soul interesting that he met with the company some investors don't like to meet with management the CEOs and some management can be really good sales people so if you're an investor asking questions they're trying to sell you on the company and get bit OV excited by what they say rather than being more rational taking a step back and looking at it but also in pretty informative about the company because the CEO in particular and the management are the in the best position to know about the company that's why insid of buying when insiders by shares that's also a good sign can be a good sign I'd had a conversation with Charlie about oligopolies when I was looking at this whole situation about rational hopes and so on and Charlie brought up a very interesting case study data wouldn't it be great to be able to talk to Charlie manger about investing and olop pick his brain about what he knows about oligopolies in different types of investing which Mish pea has been able to do over the years not anymore but he was a good friend of Charlie M he said that Buffett had studied Coke and Pepsi bottlers in virtually every geography he could around the world and he found that in something like 95 or 97% of cases both the bottlers made a lot of money it was a great business for both of them but he also found in like 3 to 5% of cases where neither of them made any money what happened is that the Coke bottler or the Pepsi bottler in a particular geography decided that they wanted to dramatically increase market share and so they dropped their pricing dramatically in the hopes of raising volumes and of course there was a reaction from the other party who also dropped their pricing and so they got into these bidding wars where the consumer basically ended up winning and neither of them could back off so he found that there were a few geographies maybe 3% or something where Coke bottling or Pepsi Bottling was not a good business and the rest of the places was good interesting to hear about this case study of coke bottlers around the world that Warren Buffett himself did so that's definitely something to listen to and Mish peo does own a Coke botler and other beverages in Turkey now if you're getting value out of this episode so far I'd really appreciate it if you had hit that like button to help the algorithm to spread it to more people cuz that's what we want thanks so basically when I met with Samsung they were very clear that they had 50% market share they did not want more than 50% market share they said quote unquote bad things happen to us when we go over 50% and they were actually the lowcost producer when I was first making the investment so I asked them this question I said look you're the lowc cost producer you can drop your prices to a point where your other two compar editors will actually start bleeding and you will still be making money and they said we know that and we also have this 50% rule where we don't want more than 50% market share so we are happy to have healthy competitors and you know keep it at that and when I met with HX and Samsung it was the same situation so basically you know when you have these oligopolies it is illegal for them to sit in a room and collude on pricing right I mean that would be you know you're going to jail if you're doing do that so he's saying there they were happy with the situation happy with the oligopoly situation where everybody has a certain amount of market share and everybody's okay in that position although they can't talk about that it's illegal to do that to get into a room to collude on pricing but they do have a way that they can sort of agree on their Market position and as long as everybody stays that way nobody tries to have more than the market share that everybody's happy with then things can go on and everybody can make money but they do what the what the airlines do so American Airlines will drop its price on a particular route and 5 minutes later United will announce that they've change their pricing as well the way they communicate with each other is through the marketplace and what I noticed when I was uh looking at Micron and HX and Samsung is that the three companies issued a lot of press releases and I was really confused why they issued so many press releases and then I realized they're not talking to me they're talking to each other and they're signaling to each other so they would always say the press release that you know we are at such and such capacity and this is our capex budget and this is what we're expecting to do and then the next guy after two days will issue a very similar press release and after two days the third guy releases so I was convinced that this was a rational oligopoly the memory business is a very complex business it's virtually impossible for a fourth player to enter the space it's really complicated technology there's just too many pattern and you know you would have to violate pattern left and right even if you willing to violate all the patents the processes are complicated so the Chinese have been trying forever for example they will not have a credible memory business that can go up against these three guys so what he's saying here is in other words High barriers to entry in this industry with there's three players in an oligopoly situation there these very expensive plants huge expertise involved in the memory business so it's just these players that are unlikely to change three players locked in this oligopoly situation as he saw the thesis that he worked at at the time so that was a thesis but then what happened is in late 21 and 22 Samsung got an and decided they wanted more market share and they wanted to increase their profits they basically increased production reduced margin causing pain and by then actually what had happened is Micron had become the low cost producer they had actually moved up the C they were Sanji Mara was executing really well but once that happened from my point of view that shattered the thesis because you're in uncharted waters now and you're basically violating this core fundamentals of what our whole thesis was on he's saying the thesis got disrupted by Samsung going after more market share instead of being comfortable in this oligopoly situation they thought they could get more market share but it disrupted what he saw as a thesis I couldn't see this thing working out in a good way the second things that started happening which was also unexpected was the US China trade Wars and all these intellectual property Wars and Micron became a big casualty of that so China banned a bunch of Micron products and different things and that helped the other two players but it hurt Micron this has been something that happened this year this China us trade War that's heated up over chips definitely been the media where this so tit fortat and it did perceive to hurt Micron he's basically saying there was too much risk for him the situation changed there's too much risk so there's two factors so when I saw that this the US China situation which is hard to forecast and predict this what he said it's hard to forecast and predict so in terms of probability I think what's what he's talking about there is the probability changed when investing is about probabilities it change from being high probability bet more risk because the probability is lower that it could work out he couldn't forecast it couldn't predict it didn't know what was going to happen to a high enough probability to stay with the investment we had you know maybe 60 70% gain on the stock over the years I thought we would get a lot more so I said okay you know we take our chips off the table the investment didn't work as well as we thought and the thesis didn't work we'll take the money and play elsewhere 60 70% gain from the time that he had the stock isn't too bad we'll have a look at his activity in Micron and when he sold and I do remember that leou sold at the same time in the same quarters so we'll just take a look at that now if you're a subscriber here you might like to know that I've started the art of value patreon Community for just the price of a cup of coffee each month I'll be providing exclusive videos adree videos of course I'll be talking about some of the stocks that I own what I'm researching my thoughts on the market my thoughts on different investors and all sorts of things so I'll put a link in the description hopefully see you over there now we can see here P Investments Mish pep R portfolio we can see the activity we can see in Q2 2023 he sold out 100% from what he had then we can see in q1 2023 he reduced it 14.44% so he was obviously changing his mind there not fully out of it just don't know exactly when he sold it but we do know in those quarters that he sold out then so the thesis change for him in q1 and Q2 2023 we can see before that in Q4 2022 he had added a little bit to Micron in Q4 2021 he was adding 15.49% to it then adding to Micron periodically over the quarters 210% adding to in q1 2019 and he bought it for the first time in Q4 2018 which just shows you how things can change keep checking in on the company or the sector and see the Dynamics of the sector it was really the Dynamics of the sector and the geopolitical situation that changed there Warren Buffett did a similar thing when he bought Taiwan semiconductor it's one of the best businesses in the world and then these tensions these geopolitical tensions between China and the US made him sell out of that it was quite a decently big position that he was building there and he changed his mind sold out said it was a great company in a bad location here we can see Himalaya Capital Management which is Lee Lou very good and value investor Lee Lou Who invests money for or did invest money for Charlie manga I'm not sure what's happened to that I'm sure he's still got it there but I guess it would be an estate now and we can see that Micron Technology he sold out in that same quarter as Mish sold out 100% in Q2 2023 and in q1 2023 he sold 40% so very similar sales to mon then monish has said that he and leelu collaborated on the thesis for micron just guessing I would say that they talked again leelu and monish P talked about the thesis and they both sold out in the same quarters selling down a little bit and then selling more I wouldn't be surprised if they've been talking to each other through that time seeing they collaborated on the thesis and they agreed that it changed and sold out that would be my guess anyway now if we have a look at the recent share price for Micron Technology and with the knowledge that we know when both lelu and Mish peo sold out of the stock we can see that it's had a pretty good year as many tech stocks have despite this geopolitical situation and I think that could be because of the AI mini bubble or the exuberance that we see for AI obviously Micron is involved in that they do have various Technologies involved in AI so I think that's helped the stock monish and Lelo have both sold out because the long-term thesis the thesis they got into has been disrupted so they wouldn't really care about the AR situation that's sort of riding a mini bubble as they said admonish has said he thinks it's a bubble in that sector at the moment they both finished selling out in Q2 2023 and we can see since then it's up about 32% so it's kept going up but they wouldn't really care about that because it could have gone down their thesis is not in place anymore now I'd love to know what you think do you think that Mish pepite and Lee have made a good decision here by selling out of Micron at this time do you still own the stock do you think the thesis is still intact let me know what you think in the comments now if you're watching this episode on YouTube I'm going to put here a previous video I made on Mish P about Micron Technology and here I'm going to put a link to a video that YouTube thinks that you in particular should watch next and thanks everyone for watching or listening and I'll see you in the next one
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