저자: KevinPaffrath · 외국인
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팬데믹 후 700년 역사 데이터를 근거로 실질금리와 인플레이션이 장기적으로 하락하고, 팬데믹 이후 실질임금은 상승한다고 주장. 전쟁과 달리 팬데믹 후에는 불확실성이 상대적으로 낮아 금리가 내려간다는 논리. 단기 2~3년은 불확실성이 크고, 장기(5~20년)에는 저금리·저수익률을 예상. 핵심 리스크는 기업의 가격결정력 유지 여부(웰러 연준 이사 발언 인용). 이에 따라 고평가 주식 대신 옵션 프리미엄 수취(커버드콜, 풋 매도) 전략을 제시.
다듬은 글
hey everyone meet kevin here or meet kevin paffrath as the judicial system likes me to be called in this video we're going to talk about some really incredible research that i've done over the last week and it has to do with our favorite things inflation wages going up what might happen in the future and some new facts and data that we've gotten including from today so folks let's get right into it right after i mentioned that this video is of course sponsored by me kevin paffraff because i've got some amazing courses linked down below with the stop the coupon code where you can get 40 off using that coupon code take advantage of that a link down below and check out the amazing program so i'm stocks trading options uh we've got real estate property management making youtube videos you name it check it out link down below okay first let's go ahead and dive into this report so i came across this absolutely incredible report and it makes this argument that economies perform substantially the same after pandemics but the way they perform is different than how you would expect so they set up this argument okay during a pandemic people die and that's bad but people also die in natural disasters or in wars but the problem is in wars you have a different outcome of what you tend to have happen after a pandemic and so we want to talk about what does that outcome look like now you might be thinking okay wait a minute what pandemics well this report looked at pandemics spanning the last 700 years including the black death the spanish flu the asian flu multiple plagues cholera you name it and even adjusted for financial crises like the great depression taking them out to make sure that we still had a consistent result and every single time this report found the same thing happened to economies after pandemics which is really interesting now initially our expectation is hey what we're probably going to see in a pandemic or after a pandemic that if there is all of a sudden a substantial loss of life that we would expect wages to go up if wages go up usually inflation goes up and when inflation goes up and wages go up we usually expect something known as the neutral interest rate to go up now the neutral interest rate is just a fancy way of saying that what is the interest rate an economy has to support full employment while keeping inflation steady so in other words if inflation is high the neutral interest rate would naturally be higher if inflation is lower neutral interest rate would naturally be lower and from now on just to keep things simple i'm just going to say rates so over time we've had this sort of collapsing of rates and this can easily be seen well not only just by us knowing that but also by taking a peek at a chart like this you can see that the neutral rate the red line has consistently gone down over the past 700 years and this makes sense because even if we just specifically look at the last 20 years or sort of the tiny little last bit of this chart we tend to see the natural rate or just rates we're going to call it go down why because technology helps foster deflation not inflation and this is why we've had this long trend to the downside in fact in medieval in the medieval era we had the we had rates around 10 neutral rate was around 10 that collapsed to about 5 during the start of the industrial revolution around 1760 and now it's pretty much around zero in fact when you look at europe they're at like negative rates which is kind of crazy to think about but what was crazy about this particular report was not so much that yeah rates go down over time but it's what i'm about to show you it's what happened to different countries after pandemics and all of them together so what you're going to see is you're going to see a blue squiggly line and that's going to show you what the natural rate did after pandemics 0 to 40 years after and around that you're going to see these sort of bands and that's where you had different results but most of the results being concentrated along where that blue line is so what i want you to picture right now before i show you this i think think about this for a moment and if you're half paying attention just stop for a second and think about this for a second because in order for you to hit get the impact of this you have to think about this so what you're going to think is after a pandemic would you expect rates to go up or down okay that's it now over what time frame five years 10 years 20 years what do you think rates would do over the 20 years after a pandemic go up or go down okay you ready for it here is the result of 700 years worth of pandemics with all of them providing these averages to us take a look folks rates plummeted on average 20 years after a pandemic now you started off sometimes with slightly higher rates a slightly more noise for example here we had a little bit more noise a little bit more uncertainty but generally in the 20 years after a pandemic we saw rates come down which also means that inflation was coming down which is really interesting because we also have wages going up like crazy right now and how can wages go up but rates like inflation not go up right i mean if wages go up then that increases the cost of production which then businesses raise their prices i mean they're not going to take people's wages away right and if the prices of goods and services go up well that means inflation goes up and that means you should have higher rates but that's not actually what happened historically after pandemics now maybe this time is different but let me just put it this way i don't like saying the phrase this time is different when history says something i look pretty closely and i look for reasons that say what has happened to the past is actually not going to happen again right his history tends to rhyme and how it repeats itself okay let's pause here and say it's kind of interesting that five to ten years after a pandemic you really start getting this plummeting of rates and likely inflation going down to help cause this which is really interesting because at the same time as you get this sort of downtrend in rates after both wars and pandemics wages tend to go up that is people tend to get paid more money after both wars and pandemics because a lot of people died and we need more people but what's different after wars and pandemics is that after wars the natural rate actually goes up 20 years after where with pandemics it goes down and we could see that's caused by inflation over here take a look at this you have pandemics which lead to 10 to 12 wage growth over this period of time substantial actual wage growth inflation adjusted pandemics lead to good positive growth in wages this is good for workers people actually getting paid more adjusted for inflation so now we're caught up with these weird long-term historical changes but what does that mean in the short term and why the heck are wages going up i mean wages are going up that's not exactly aligned with inflation going down well to help us answer this take a look at what crazy thing happened right here when we compare wars to pandemics that's definitely the wrong button there this is the right button look at this right here at the zero year mark you had rates initially go up after pandemics look at this spot right here see that blue line and this initial increase you have right there in pandemics you actually had rates at first after pandemics on average go up where they initially went down after wars but that course actually reversed itself by about year five you started having an inflection point and a crossover by year seven to eight thereafter and after about year seven to eight after a pandemic look at this you basically had mega low rates lower inflation with pandemics but with wars you had higher natural rates so higher inflation and because you had higher inflation workers got punished more after wars because after wars even though in both cases people got paid more money after wars people's actual real wage growth was mostly negative for 10 to 30 years after a war however after a pandemic the next 40 years looked like a solid line of real wage growth which means wages going up above the rate of inflation so this is actually very very good and in other words this research is saying we should expect wages to actually grow more than they would have had it not been for the pandemic and that's literally what's happening in fact it's kind of scary to say this but this report was written in june of 2020 when there were only 000 cova deaths worldwide we're now over four million coveted deaths and yet now we're seeing that massive wage growth which this report actually predicted this report also predicts the same problem we're seeing now that natural rates rise after a pandemic and only about seven or eight years later do we get that big plummet we don't end up getting any kind of like hyperinflation or hyper increase in real rates but we do have a period of instability after a pandemic much like after a war now keep in mind one of the reasons wars are so different one of the reasons you might not actually be getting this real wage growth after pandemics is because risk goes up after a war that is people who invest demand greater returns on their money after a war because economic stability is actually riskier let me ask yourself let me ask you this what do you think was more risky investing in america in march 20 or after the day after pearl harbor like what would make you more nervous about investing right march 2020 look at go ahead use hindsight it's fine right in hindsight it's like well wait a minute duh like the day after pearl harbor you'd probably be like oh my gosh what if we're about to get invaded we're going to war this is scary uncertainty goes up substantially more after a war and this is why real rates tend to go higher after wars because uncertainty goes up whereas with pandemics we actually have a little bit less uncertainty but we do as a human population tend to save more on a personal level we're more confident in our government which might i know politically that sounds crazy to say because our government's crazy don't get me wrong but you're certainly more confident than right after a war right and uh you have this situation where generally rates go down all right so now let's hit some bottom lines because i know some of this was a little bit more detailed and granule but i think that's why some of y'all come to the channel to get some of this detailed kind of insight so bottom line of this report and then i want to introduce some new things is that after pandemics you tend to see lower returns on assets as societies save more money and you get lower returns on businesses who are now paying higher wages but those businesses generally do not pass along all of the price increases to their customers and certainly over the 20 to 40 years following a pandemic you tend to be in a scenario of having lower inflation you also tend to have higher wages in a real manner that means real wage growth above inflation so if inflation is one percent maybe wages are going at three or four percent and it seems weird like how could that happen wouldn't wages raise uh the rate of inflation not necessarily because if the marketplace stays competitive and consumers say you know what i'm not going to pay higher purchase or prices i'm going to save more instead in other words frugal decade then the ability to raise prices erodes prices stay low while wages go up it's crazy but history tells us that's what happens after a pandemic so bottom line in the short term you know the first two or three years after pandemic lots of uncertainty longer term after a pandemic low rates lower yields so in other words you kind of have to prep for lower returns on investment and lower inflation in the long run but there are some risk factors a big risk factor actually has to do specifically with what governor waller of the federal reserve said today governor waller mentioned that he has a real concern that what if businesses can raise prices and keep those prices high well in that kind of case it's possible that inflation may not be as transitory as we expect it will be but that's not his base case scenario so let me break that down very clearly he believes that we are going to see inflation inflect downward he thinks that's the likely case scenario towards the end of the year we'll have less inflation that things like car purchases and airline purchases and ticket prices and things like that aren't going to keep going up 10 10 10 percent forever that they're going to inflict back down we're going to see a leveling off of these prices but he does make the argument that the big risk factor is what if we deviate what if those prices stay up and so this is where what i'm going to do is i'm going to draw a little bit of a sort of a game plan uh that i that i think will be a lot easier for us to follow so basically we believe based on this report here that in the long run we're going to have lower yields so we're going to write down lower yields and lower inflation especially over the uh the next oh gosh i don't know somewhere like 5 to 10 years right this time frame and likely based on this historical report but i don't like estimating that far out even 20 years so really like 5 to 20 years unless and this is the key thing that we have to watch unless as mr waller says which right now he just references as being anecdotal like him talking to businesses unless businesses maintain price power price power is going to be the key here so if we want to keep an eye on what the economy is likely to do going forward we have to see how capable businesses are at consistently passing price increases along to their customers now unfortunately it's going to take time to see exactly how that plays out but in the meantime personally i'm using a very simple strategy when i'm investing i'm trying to get myself as usual real estate below market value undervalued real estate i haven't really found that i've been hunting i will find something eventually i always do but it's been a little it's been slimmer pickings in the last few months and i know that in stocks i'm not super excited about paying massively high valuations because quite frankly i think we should expect lower returns going forward in the future and slower returns lower and slower returns means lower implied volatility which means stay away from things like bought call options instead consider selling to pick up premiums covered calls and puts so selling and put selling puts or selling covered calls those are ways that you'd be able to farm yields obviously i talk about this regularly in my programs like stocks and psychology of money with options and trading link down below you said 40 off coupon code but of course uh you could also read a book if you want to but anyway these these are things that in my opinion this report really helps us reiterate a lot of the beliefs that we have now i'm always very cautious to say oh yay i found a report that pats my strategy on the back that says yeah inflation in the long run will be lower i i get that that's it's cool i recognize my potential bias here but at the same time what i'm doing that's unique is i'm also looking for my risk factors which is what usually folks don't do they look at confirmation bias and then they don't look at their risk factors so remember what was our risk factor folks businesses maintaining pricing power if we go into a frugal decade then people consumers are going to stop paying higher prices they're going to choose to save instead and after stimulus the stimulus tap is completely off after the unemployment tap is closed i think businesses are going to lose that pricing power and we are going to see that deflationary trend again that's my belief that's why i'm investing the way that i am this is also why i'm not like desperate to get into more real estate because real estate's a good inflation hedge and i'm not desperate to get in more because quite frankly if inflation's one or two percent not that big of a deal hey but rates will be lower so anyway things to think about consider liking the video sharing the video and as always check out the amazing programs link down below thanks for watching you
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