저자: Kevin · 외국인
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테슬라 2021년 2분기 실적 발표를 앞두고 과거 실적 후 주가 횡보·하락 패턴을 짚으며 실적이 무난(milk toast)할 것으로 봄. 1분기 인도량 184,800대, 차량 평균판매가 약 4.9만 달러로 매출 추산. 에너지 매출은 인버터 등 공급망 제약으로 부진 우려. 마진 서프라이즈가 나와야 3분기·4분기 기대감과 주가 반등이 가능하다고 주장. 콜옵션 보유 중이며 실적 후 콜 매도 전략을 고려.
다듬은 글
hey everyone kevin here let's talk about tesla earnings today and my expectations and plan for tesla so tesla beat earnings six out of the last six earnings which is really great or at least that sounds great but the reality is when we look at the stock chart it's really not that phenomenal in fact if we go here to january 2020 yeah the stock went up after earnings but that was the last time we traded mostly sideways in the april 20 earnings we traded sideways then down in the july 20 earnings we traded sideways for about a month in the october earnings of 2020.
then we traded sideways and substantially down in the january 2021 earnings traded down after the april 2021 earnings and now what are we going to do after earnings today well geez if the pattern says anything probably sideways or down and the options market is kind of over tesla at the moment options volatility for tesla has plummeted which is really really bad if you own call options like i do unfortunately my tesla calls are bleeding they have eradicated my gains on other options that i have like google enface or etsy all of which have made me hundreds of thousands of dollars so far but unfortunately because of tesla i'm basically at a big fat zero so thanks tesla and the lack of options volatility what i really need from tesla is some more freaking volatility can we get some more volatility up in here okay i need some more frantic up and down and frantic-ness to make some money here and this sideways trading boring crap is kind of bothering me it's it's boring and it's annoying but anyway here's the thing we got to take our emotions out of this not that i'm emotional at all over this let's take our emotions out of this and look at some numbers in quarter one tesla delivered 184 800 vehicles that worked out to receiving about nine billion dollars of automotive revenue which worked out to about forty eight thousand seven hundred and twelve dollars per vehicle if we multiply forty eight thousand seven hundred and twelve by two hundred and one thousand two hundred 250 vehicles delivered in this quarter we get to about 9.8 billion now we did deliver eight uh 1890 model s's and x's which means we're probably going to be able to bump this average to around 50 000 as an average selling price that would get us just over 10 billion dollars in revenue the street right now is expecting tesla to bring in 11.37 billion dollars in revenue which that extra 1.3 billion dollars is entirely possible through energy revenues and service revenues will probably meet or beat the earnings i don't know how much will beat it by and this is where i get a little bit concerned see right now energy revenues and solar revenues in my opinion are being held down by supply chain constraints inverters are harder to make and come by and these are delaying solar panel projects and solar install projects that's not so good tesla's energy game is also big on the long game and so it can take longer for us to actually expect the energy revenues to beat now maybe tesla installed a bunch of new mega packs which would be a miracle but that also implies that tesla had enough against supply of not just chips but also batteries to do so we also don't have enough s's and x's being delivered in q2 to really expect the average selling price of each vehicle to go up substantially so the reality is this is probably going to meet expectations and meet with the options market is implying in other words we'll get earnings today we'll have milk toast earnings and it'll be boring and our options will continue to bleed as options volatility continues to sink this is really unfortunate and it somewhat implies that the momentum for tesla is gone at least the volatility momentum now i am a tesla bull but i realize sometimes patience is really what's needed for stocks but it really sucks when you're in options and that's one of the biggest downsides of options is patience costs you a lot of money theta decay is a disaster and it is very very expensive so here's what's on my mind today is the first time i've seriously considered selling call options against tesla to take advantage of whatever kind of improved volatility we would have today that way if tesla meets or goes down i'm good i locked in some attendees by selling some calls and if there's a beat hey no worries i hedged myself and i had a little bit less profit because i still have my calls but when i woke up this morning and i looked at tesla's volatility it was milk toast like we got no improvement in volatility so really the best case scenario that could happen here with tesla and this is a very crucial point is for tesla to just magically come out with some kind of insane beat by maybe crushing margin way better than it ever has in the past and all of a sudden wall street is like oh my gosh they got their efficiency down so pat that they are making so much money this changes all of our algorithms in the future and all of a sudden tesla shoots like 10 15 that's going to change the volatility it measures that's going to help bail people out of options who have call options we need a big freaking beat now we're not going to get it on average selling price and i don't expect we're going to get it on energy the only place and you've heard me say it before on this channel especially if you're a subscriber here the only place in my opinion we could see it is in margin which what's really interesting is wall street right now is expecting margin to come in the wall street consensus is for it to come in at 26.03 percent which is actually less than previously uh in q1 we had 26.5 percent take out the regulatory credits you're at 22 now i personally think we could easily get back to that 27.7 percent level from q3 2020 and one of the reasons we saw such a big bump over here is because once we saw covet expenses go away then we started seeing margin bump up again which is very good we want to get back on that trend of seeing covet expenses go away we're spending less on the plexiglass and the filtration on masks on sick time whatever and we start seeing that margin go up in the direction it should be going up if we actually extrapolated our 2019 and 2020 margin improvements we should realistically be closer to 28 gross margin using the vehicle credits as well and elon musk's goal is to get this to 30 not including vehicle credits if we get a massive margin beat in this quarter it's going to in my opinion set tesla up for a wonderful q3 q4 it's going to hopefully lead to a big move in the stock price maybe we'll see another two or three week rally on tesla and we'll finally be able to bail out of option contracts that we have purchased and once we get to peak euphoria then we can sell calls and take big freaking attendees to the bank but short of a big margin beat i'm very worried that this earnings day is going to be milk toast and it's going to suck because it's just going to bleed our our call options even more so we'll see what happens fingers crossed on a big marginal improvement for tesla honestly right now not holding my breath but i've got my fingers crossed and i really hope we be folks thank you so much for watching we need not just a little beat but we need a big beat on margin watch me live when i cover the tesla earnings later and folks we'll see you next one you
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